汽油储罐化学爆炸事故后果模拟分析

一直以来,汽油储罐化学爆炸事故模型被用来评审加油站的安全评价报告,所以本文通过实际模拟计算来分析汽油储罐化学爆炸事故模型,以方便加油站进行安全管理。     

To Price Discriminate or Not: Product Choice and the Selection Bias Problem

In this paper, we investigate a gasoline station's incentive to price-discriminate by selling full-service gasoline as well as self-service gasoline. Unlike previous research, we explicitly model a firm's incentive to price discriminate by choosing to be either single-product or multi-product as a function of market and station characteristics. This allows us to make two contributions to research in the area: First, we highlight the importance of accounting for self-selectivity considerations that can arise in an empirical analysis of price discrimination that is based on market data. Second, we are able to show how the product and pricing choices of firms depend upon the market characteristics.Using cross-sectional survey data on prices, station and market characteristics for 198 gasoline stations in the Greater Saint Louis area, we estimate a switching regression model of station decisions. Specifically, we employ a binary probit framework that models a station's decision to price-discriminate through the choice of the station-type as a function of market and station characteristics. We then estimate conditional linear regressions with self-selectivity corrections for the station's choice of prices. We show that incorrect inferences about the incentive to price discriminate and about the differences in the prices charged between single-product and multi-product stations would result if the endogeneity in the choice of the station-type were ignored in the estimation. The empirical analysis shows that a larger income spread in the market implies a greater likelihood of the gasoline station being multi-product. In addition, we have support for the various within firm and across firm price differentials as predicted by the theory of price discrimination.     

乙醇汽油对发动机性能影响的实验研究

随着国际石油供应越来越紧张,以及汽车尾气排放污染越来越严重,乙醇汽油已经成为今后可再生资源的发展重点。目前,我国很多地区也已经开始试用乙醇汽油,但是乙醇汽油毕竟是新生事物,它对汽车发动机的性能到底存在哪些影响,我们至今还没有一个确切的结论。本文通过一系列实验,对乙醇汽油对发动机性能的影响进行了探讨。     

A comparison of Hausman's and Breslaw–Smith's methods in estimating consumer welfare loss because of fuel taxes

In this paper, we investigate the welfare effect of US gasoline consumption caused by fuel taxes. Using two different economics approaches – the Hausman method and the Breslaw and Smith method – in measuring consumer welfare loss, we calculate compensating variation (CV) and the corresponding dead weight loss (DWL) assuming there are changes in motor gasoline tax. Our analysis shows that tax revenue, CV and DWL increases as motor gasoline tax increases, but the social welfare loss measured in DWL increases far more rapidly than the other two.     

Asymmetric search and prospect theory: choice experiment on consumer willingness to search in the gasoline retail market

We use an internet survey conducted among a representative random sample of drivers in the State of Ohio consisting of a choice experiment designed to examine the mechanism driving asymmetric search. The internet survey affords us the opportunity to overcome endogeneity difficulties by imposing exogenous price changes on gasoline consumers to examine the decision-making process behind intended search decisions. We randomly assigned participants to one of five price treatments (either 2.5 or 5% above or below their reported expected price, or no change). We provide a simple empirical model to derive testable implications under prospect theory and use the internet survey to test them. Results indicate that among the respondents who faced prices below their expected price, only 12% chose to search, whereas 45% searched when prices were above. Further, we find results consistent with asymmetric search being driven by prospect theory. The change in consumers’ willingness to search is twice as large when prices exceed expectations by 2.5% relative to when prices exceed them by 5% suggesting that consumers derive utility of finding a good deal evaluated relative to a reference price. We show that this result is inconsistent with standard utility theory or consumers using alternative reference prices.     

日元汇率波动影响批发物价的实证分析

进入浮动汇率以来,日元汇率波动对日本批发物价带来了怎样的影响是一个值得研究的问题。实证分析结果表明,1971～2003年,日元汇率对总体国内批发物价的影响显著,但对各行业批发物价的影响不同;美国出口价格、石油价格对日本国内批发物价的影响显著;日本的货币供应是影响日本批发物价的重要因素,但日本名义GDP对日本批发物价的影响不明显。     

Homogeneous,heterogeneous or shrinkage estimators? Some empirical evidence from French regional gasoline consumption

This paper contrasts the performance of heterogeneous and shrinkage estimators versus the more traditional homogeneous panel data estimators. The analysis utilizes a panel data set from 21 French regions over the period 1973–1998 and a dynamic demand specification to study the gasoline demand in France. Out-of-sample forecast performance as well as the plausibility of the various estimators are contrasted.The authors would like to thank Jean-Loup Madre, Research Director at INRETS, for his assistance with obtaining the data set and the editor Robert M. Kunst and two referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. Badi H. Baltagi would like to thank the Bush Program in Economics of Public Policy for its support. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the North American Summer Econometric Society Meetings at UCLA, June, 2002.     

Econometric estimation of PCAIDS models

This paper presents a version of the proportionally calibrated almost ideal demand system (PCAIDS) model, useful for merger simulations, which can be econometrically estimated using price data for two firms in a market. PCAIDS is therefore seen as a set of restrictions to be imposed in an econometric estimation, and not only as a pure calibration method. The proposed model is applied to a database of the Argentine gasoline market, and its results are compared to the ones obtained with other alternative specifications.

改善汽油质量技术措施的分析与探索

针对国内汽油质量现状，分析了提高汽油质量技术的适应性，并结合中国石化洛阳分公司装置结构、加工流程和产品方案的实际情况，提出了用催化裂化－柴油加氢－催化重整装置联合优化的运行模式来改善汽油产品质量以适应新标准的要求。