THE OPTIMAL LISTING STRATEGIES IN ONLINE AUCTIONS

This article proposes a unified framework to completely characterize the seller's optimal listing strategy in the online auction as a function of her rate of time impatience. Specifically, the fixed‐price listing, the regular auction, and the buy‐it‐now (BIN) auction are each a solution of the seller's single optimization problem under different values of the rate of intertemporal discount: The perfectly patient seller adopts the regular auction, the sellers with a medium range of time impatience adopt the BIN auction, and the most impatient of sellers adopt the fixed‐price listing. Moreover, under mild conditions, the reverse price is inversely related to the value of the seller's discount factor, either within or across formats. This in turn implies that the posted price in the fixed‐price sale is greater than the reserve price of the BIN auction, followed by that of the regular auction. These predictions offer clear empirical implications.     

Simple Trading Rules and the Market for Internet Stocks

We investigate the profitability of moving average trading rules for Internet stocks based on the Dow Jones Internet Composite Index. Consistent with previous studies e.g. Brock et al. (1992), returns after buy signals exceed returns after sell signals. The average buy–sell spread is large and significant even after accounting for transaction costs. Bootstrap simulations based on a version of the dynamic CAPM show that the model is able to replicate the pattern of buy and sell returns. Simulated buy–sell spreads amount on average to more than 39% of the actual spread. However, actual profits are still too large to be explained in terms of risk compensation.     

Information disclosure ratings and managerial short-termism: An empirical investigation of the Chinese stock market

Information asymmetry between managers and outside investors creates agency problems and impedes efficient capital allocation. Information disclosure is critical in alleviating information asymmetry in capital markets. This study investigates the effect of information asymmetry on managerial short-termism by examining information disclosure ratings (IDRs). Using real earnings management as a proxy for managerial short-termism, our analysis of a sample of Chinese A-share companies during 2001–2018 indicates that high IDRs mitigate managerial short-termism. The results also indicate that the effect of IDRs in reducing managerial short-termism is driven mainly by stock liquidity. This conclusion holds after consideration of endogeneity and application of two-stage least-squares and generalized method of moments methods, adjustment of the definition of IDRs, consideration of alternative proxies for managerial short-termism, and control for firm characteristics that might affect the extent of managerial short-termism. This study also examines the effects within three subsamples: companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange main board, small and medium enterprise board, and growth enterprise market board. IDRs substantially reduce managerial short-termism among firms listed on all three boards. These findings indicate that enterprises have corrected previous internal governance problems, and IDRs have helped to improve internal governance through stock liquidity. Therefore, external supervision also helps to reduce the agency problem of managerial short-termism.

     

Modern pandemic crises and default risk: Worldwide evidence

This article examines the relationship between modern health pandemic crises and financial stability. Specifically, it collects data on 250,223 firms in 43 countries (or regions) during five modern pandemic crises, SARS (2003), H1N1 (2009), MERS (2012), Ebola (2014), and Zika (2016), and finds that pandemic crises significantly increase the default risk of enterprises. Further analysis shows that formal and informal institutions acted as a “cushion” against the pandemic crisis. The earlier a country adopts IFRS, the more unimpeded access to information, and the more stable religious and ethnic relations within the country can reduce the negative impact of a pandemic on financial stability. This article addresses the hitherto inadequacy of COVID-related data. In addition, this article argues that governments should build sound state institutions to withstand macroeconomic shocks and highlights the heterogeneity of default risk for enterprises operating in countries with different institutions.     

Revisiting the valuation of deposit insurance

This study proposes a framework for pricing deposit insurance that evaluates the effect of depositor preference laws and the issuance of contingent capital bonds. Four main findings emerge from this study. First, traditional option pricing models of deposit insurance overestimate insurance premiums. Second, only large issuances of contingent capital bonds decrease deposit insurance premiums under depositor preference. Third, the issuance of contingent capital bonds can partially offset banks' excessive risk-taking caused by regulatory forbearance. Finally, although large banks have implied too-big-to-fail risks, the deposit insurer's costs from large banks are not nearly as high as reported in previous studies.     

The origins of cultural divergence: evidence from Vietnam

Journal of Economic Growth - Cultural norms diverge substantially across societies, often within the same country. We propose and investigate a self-domestication/selective migration hypothesis,...     

The market distortion effects of mortgage tightening and transaction taxes: Evidence from Hong Kong residential resale market

By using transaction-level data, we study if two popular policies intended to cool an overheated housing market would serve their intended purposes. We found both mortgage tightening and Special Stamp Duties (SSD) actually led to higher starter home prices in Hong Kong. Mortgage tightening shifted the demand for bigger homes to that for smaller ones. The SSD that applies to resales within a specified period of the original purchase lowered turnover across the housing market. The decline in turnover is, as expected, sharpest for small flats, implying a dramatic shrinkage in second-hand supply of such homes, driving their prices up. We also found transactions bunching as many homes are held till the SSD is no longer applicable, indicating lock-in effects. Relative to those that are not subject to the SSD, the prices of properties subject to the levy are found to be lower by 6.8%.     

It's ok to think in a bad way: How state optimism and pessimism influence risk-taking

Government and public policy makers are facing an important issue on how to balance between economics and consumers' well-being. Thus, the current research proposes an important factor to help understand more on consumers risk-taking in investment. Trait optimists typically expect bright outcomes, whereas trait pessimists usually expect gloomy ones. However, the present research qualifies these generalizations. This current research proposes that optimism and pessimism can also be temporarily changed and cause different impact comparing to trait optimism and pessimism. Four studies showed that state optimists and pessimists differ in their expectations of success in a situation in which outcomes are purely a matter of chance or skills. Specifically, state optimists invest more in risky options when they believe that the investments are chance-based, whereas state pessimists invest more when they believe the investments are skill-based. These effects were due to their beliefs that the outcome is due to chance or skills. Additionally, we found that the effect will be moderated by individuals' locus of control.     

The dynamics of the house price-to-income ratio: Theory and evidence

The house price-to-income ratio (PIR) is widely used as an affordability indicator. This paper complements the cross-sectionally focused literature by proposing a tractable model for the PIR dynamics. Our model predicts that the PIR is very persistent and is correlated to the lagged aggregate output. Cross-country analysis confirms this prediction and provides evidence for a long-term, positive, and significant relationship between PIR and aggregate production. Our results hint at the construction of an early warning system for housing market mispricing. Our tractable formulation of a stochastic money growth rule may carry independent research interest.     

Risk preference interactions between individual farmers and small farmer groups: Experimental evidence from rural Ethiopia

The understanding of risk preference interactions among poor farmers in developing countries has important policy implications, as many programs that aim to alleviate poverty and address risk constraints are provided on a collective basis. We conduct a randomized field experiment in the drought-prone parts of Northern Ethiopia and elicit from poor, vulnerable farmers their hypothetical willingness to pay using individual and group lottery games. Analyzing the certainty equivalent ratios (CERs), we find that farmer groups are more risk averse than individual farmers. When the risk of the lottery is high, the group CER is primarily determined by the most-risk-averse farmer of the group, and to a lesser extent, by the least. The median farmer contributes to the group CER only when the lottery risk is moderate. After participating in the group elicitation, individual farmers also become as risk averse as the group on average. Specifically, the median and the least-risk-averse farmers become significantly more risk averse while the most-risk-averse farmer is unaffected. Our results show that policymakers should carefully consider how social interactions in rural communities affect individual and group risk preference and whether social interactions also affect the participation and effectiveness of development programs.