实物储蓄、货币幻觉与我国农户消费的实证研究

我国农户的储蓄包括现金储蓄和实物储蓄,实物储蓄主要受粮食总产量的影响.从现金消费看,长期均衡消费倾向不断降低,农户存在货币幻觉现象.启动农村消费一是要促进农户实物储蓄向现金储蓄的转化,二是要增加农民现金收入,三要通提高农户消费倾向.国家宏观政策上要防止通货紧缩.     

契约储蓄对金融市场的潜在影响

契约储蓄机构包括养老基金和寿险公司。养老基金和寿险公司的特殊之处在于他们的债务期限为长期结构。这类储蓄机构的投资可以使金融市场上长期资金的供给增加,也由于其投资的长期性,使证券市场的效率、透明度和竞争程度整体上会得到提高,交易成本趋于下降。此外,使银行的行为更加理性化、长期化,从而使得金融市场上的资金需求方企业可以以更低的成本获得更多的长期资金,促进整个金融体系的健康稳定发展。     

人口红利有多大

本文用一个含中青年人对幼年人抚养和对老年人赡养的世代交叠模型分析人口变动对储蓄率的影响，得到了一些新的结论。其中较重要的是：①快速的生育率下降对储蓄率没有大的正影响（储蓄率只在人口转变时期小幅度上升）；②幼年一中青年人口比率变动对储蓄率的影响力比老年一中青年人口比率变动对储蓄率的影响力小得多；③快速的生育率下降虽然引起经济增长率下降，但它同时引起人均消静永久性提高．     

储蓄向投资转化与现行国债政策的关系研究

本文通过建立动态宏观经济模型,分析了私人储蓄增长大于社会固定资产投资增长对我国经济发展的影响。实际经济数据表明,储蓄向投资转化不力正是我国经济中通货紧缩的主要原因。政府通过扩大国债规模,加大基础设施投资力度,对经济具有促进作用。从储蓄与投资的关系出发,本文提出了发行国债规模的两个参考条件,同时认为在目前我国经济发展条件下可以允许较高的国债规模。     

全球经济应该如何调整

失衡与调整是新世纪全球经济最引人注目的话题。本文认为,失衡的错综复杂性,决定了全球经济调整将是一条缓慢、长期和艰辛之路;全球经济调整的关键是对储蓄投资失衡关系的调整;为避免全球经济硬着陆的发生,美国及其他主要国家应主动承担起调整的责任;中国应调整出口导向战略,把经济增长更多地建立在依靠内需的基础上。     

投资理性、居民金融资产选择与储蓄大搬家

本文通过一个加入交易成本的两期资产选择模型,对目前城镇居民储蓄迅速搬家股市而农村居民几乎不持有风险资产这两种并存现象的巨大反差提供了一个较为合理的解释.研究发现当持有风险资产存在成本时,财富水平的高低和交易成本的大小是居民决定是否持有一定数量风险资产的重要因素.二元经济结构下的城乡收入差距显著,财富分布极不均等,交易成本的不对称是阻碍农村居民投资风险资产的主要原因.在众多影响风险资产持有水平的因素中,高风险升水所带来的财富效应主导了其它因素的影响.     

Deposit rate sensitivity of credit union shares

This study examines the factors that are related to the growth of credit union liabilities. We use individual credit union data on deposit categories and their associated interest rates to measure the effect of interest rate changes on the growth rates of total shares and five of its subcomponents. After controlling for credit union size, previous growth, and market interest rates, we find that while total share growth is related to individual credit union regular share and money market rates, it is most affected by share certificate rates. With the exception of share drafts, the growth in other deposit categories is significantly affected by the interest rate a credit union offers for those particular accounts. Finally, we provide evidence that, in general, the growth rate of a deposit category is negatively related to interest rates offered on other types of accounts.

福利水平的可持续性评价研究

在设计福利水平的评价指标和可持续发展评价指标时,一些评价福利水平的指标忽视了可持续性,而评价可持续发展的指标则忽略了当前的福利水平。长期以来,人们一方面试图用一个单一的指标来综合反映可持续发展和福利水平两个方面的内容;另一方面,也在探讨不将两方面的内容完全综合为一个指标的情况下,如何结合应用两个方面的测度指标。本文首先针对第一方面的问题以ISEW为例进行述评;其次,述评第二方面的不同建议;再次,提出将真实储蓄率作为可持续指标,并以此来评判福利水平的可持续性。     

Savings and the terms of trade under borrowing constraints

This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms of trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. The first part uses a simple three-period model to show that, if households expect to face binding borrowing constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade—in contrast to what conventional consumption-smoothing models would predict. The second part tests for the existence of asymmetric effects of terms of trade disturbances while controlling for various standard determinants of private savings. The results, based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980-1996, indicate that periods of increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade tend indeed be associated with higher rates of private savings.     

Women and Retirement Pensions: A Research Review

Abstract

The links between women's caring work and access to economic resources are particularly critical in the context of widespread public policy debates about retirement and pensions, many of which neglect care as a key issue for analysis. However, among feminist economists it is widely recognized that women's patterns of care provision have adverse implications for their access to economic resources in later life. The feminist economics literature examines many of the interactions between women's caring roles and their access to resources, particularly women's capacity to access economic resources through publicly mandated or regulated pension schemes. This article reviews research that places women's patterns of work and care at the center of analyses of retirement pension policy in an effort to provide a summary of research on gender and pensions policy and to contrast the extent to which differing institutional and policy frameworks accommodate women's caring roles.