The visual history of the Tableau Économique

This article looks at the history of the Tableau Économique from a visual point of view. It shows that Quesnay invented the Tableau to formalize visually his economic theory, and that he used different versions of the Tableau (‘Zigzag’, ‘Précis’ and ‘Formule’) for reasons of visual rhetorics. Accordingly, the visual history of the Tableau clarifies several problems identified by previous ‘ecommentors’. The paper concludes that the history of the Tableau as an image cannot be equated with that of Quesnay's abstract economic model without missing the Tableau Économique's raison d'être.     

与狮同行

参与一年一度的Cannes Lions戛纳国际广告节。是每一位广告人难得的经验。今年有机会置身其中，最兴奋的，就是有幸上台亲手接过金狮子的荣誉。回顾今次行程。获益良多．能够一次观赏到来自世界各地的出色作品．感觉就像众多甜品放在面前，琳琅满目，每件作品也想慢慢解馋，慢慢消化，另一方面。却受时间所限。怕过分享受．会错过很多精彩作品。当然，观赏之余，亦提供一个与来自其他地区的广告人交流的机会。了解多一点，眼界与思维也国际化起来。所以，今次绝对是全方位大考验。挑战接收力、消化力和体力。     

Assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events

The paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. It contributes to the literature on the prediction of financial crises mainly in two ways: first, it uses a Financial Stress Index for identifying the starting date of systemic financial crises. Second, it uses discrete choice models that combine both domestic and global indicators of macro-financial vulnerabilities to predict systemic financial crises. The performance of the models is evaluated in a framework that takes into account policy maker’s preferences between missing crises and issuing false alarms. Our analysis shows that combining indicators of domestic and global macro-financial vulnerabilities substantially improves the models’ ability to forecast systemic financial crises. Our framework also displays a good out-of-sample performance in predicting the ongoing Global Financial Crisis.     

An exploratory study of the relationship between customer-based casino brand equity and firm performance

This exploratory study examines the relationship between customer-based casino brand equity and firm performance using Macau casinos as a sample. The results indicated that better-performing casino brands were associated with greater customer-based brand equity, which comprises brand loyalty, brand image and brand awareness. Furthermore, Asia Pacific-based casino brands in Macau outperformed their U.S.-based counterparts in terms of customers’ perceived quality, suggesting the need for U.S.-based casino brands to better cater for the needs of Macau casino visitors and to localize their services. Future research directions are also suggested.     

Budget-constrained optimal reinsurance design under coherent risk measures

ABSTRACT

Reinsurance is a versatile risk management strategy commonly employed by insurers to optimize their risk profile. In this paper, we study an optimal reinsurance design problem minimizing a general law-invariant coherent risk measure of the net risk exposure of a generic insurer, in conjunction with a general law-invariant comonotonic additive convex reinsurance premium principle and a premium budget constraint. Due to its intrinsic generality, this contract design problem encompasses a wide body of optimal reinsurance models commonly encountered in practice. A three-step solution scheme is presented. Firstly, the objective and constraint functions are exhibited in the so-called Kusuoka's integral representations. Secondly, the mini-max theorem for infinite dimensional spaces is applied to interchange the infimum on the space of indemnities and the supremum on the space of probability measures. Thirdly, the recently developed Neyman–Pearson methodology due to Lo (2017a) is adopted to solve the resulting infimum problem. Analytic and transparent expressions for the optimal reinsurance policy are provided, followed by illustrative examples.     

Tourism and online photography

This paper documents the use of online travel photo-sharing technologies among Hong Kong residents. The advent of Web 2.0 is changing fundamentally the tourist information search and destination choice process. Yet, to date, no study has documented Web 2.0 usage levels and preferences for certain media for posting travel photographs across an entire community. This study reveals that some 89% of pleasure travelers take photographs and that 41% of them posted their photographs online. Social network sites (SNSs), instant messaging, online photo albums and personal blogs were the most popular media used. In general, people who post photographs online tend to be younger, better educated, and earn a higher income than those who do not. The study determined that most people also use multiple media platforms to disseminate their images. Cluster analysis based on the four major styles of online platform identified five cohorts of users who differed in number and type of media used, demographic profile and travel motive. Implications for destination promotion are discussed.     

Does the look matter? The impact of casino servicescape on gaming customer satisfaction,intention to revisit,and desire to stay

Despite huge investment made by casinos on their physical structures, little has been know if physical environment actually affects psychological responses of gaming customers. This paper explores how dimensions of servicescape influence customer satisfaction and behavioral intentions in the casino environment. Using Bitner's model of physical surroundings, we hypothesized how ambience, navigation, seating comfort, interior decor, and cleanliness affected cognitive and affective satisfaction of gaming customers. We further proposed that gaming customer satisfaction would affect their desire to stay and intention to revisit. Data from 513 gaming customers of Macau offered support to most of our hypotheses. Implications for research and managerial practices were also discussed.     

Consumer credit-risk models via machine-learning algorithms

We apply machine-learning techniques to construct nonlinear nonparametric forecasting models of consumer credit risk. By combining customer transactions and credit bureau data from January 2005 to April 2009 for a sample of a major commercial bank’s customers, we are able to construct out-of-sample forecasts that significantly improve the classification rates of credit-card-holder delinquencies and defaults, with linear regression R²’s of forecasted/realized delinquencies of 85%. Using conservative assumptions for the costs and benefits of cutting credit lines based on machine-learning forecasts, we estimate the cost savings to range from 6% to 25% of total losses. Moreover, the time-series patterns of estimated delinquency rates from this model over the course of the recent financial crisis suggest that aggregated consumer credit-risk analytics may have important applications in forecasting systemic risk.     

The Effects of Consumer-Directed Health Plans on Health Care Spending

We use unique data from an insurer that exclusively offers high-deductible, "consumer-directed" health plans to identify the effect of plan features, notably employer contributions to the spending account, on health care spending. Our results show that the marginal dollar contributed by the employer to the spending account is entirely spent on outpatient and pharmacy services. In contrast, out-of-pocket spending was not responsive to the amount the employer contributes to the spending account. Our results represent the first plausibly causal estimates of the components of consumer-driven health plans on health spending. The magnitudes of the effects suggest important health care spending consequences to higher employer contributions to spending accounts. Our findings are most directly relevant to health reimbursement arrangement plan designs, though our results are still of value to health savings account plan designs.     

Teaching quality enhancement using value-chain instruction system design

This study focuses on creating learning value by applying process reengineering as the central concern of instruction design. It also applies the concept of total quality management, which includes learner satisfaction levels, teaching service levels, and learner response potential, to develop value-chain instruction system design (VCISD). The purpose of the study is to raise the quality of education by reconstructing the content and procedures of teaching. To determine if the proposed instruction system design is superior to traditional methods, this study uses empirical research to validate the effectiveness of VCISD. Results show that VCISD had positive effects on students’ learning outcomes in terms of listening comprehension and reading comprehension. Students also attained higher satisfaction levels in terms of the use of teaching material/teaching aids in class, the depth of teaching content, the breadth of teaching content, the liveliness of teaching content, and the coherence and continuity of teaching content.