Nash equilibrium without mutual knowledge of rationality

Summary. In a Nash equilibrium, players' rationality is mutual knowledge. However, both intuition and experimental evidence suggest that players do not know for sure the rationality of opponents. This paper proposes a new equilibrium concept, cautious equilibrium, that generalizes Nash equilibrium in terms of preferences in two person strategic games. In a cautious equilibrium, players do not necessarily know the rationality of opponents, but they view rationality as infinitely more likely than irrationality. For suitable models of preference, cautious equilibrium predicts that a player might take a “cautious” strategy that is not a best response in any Nash equilibrium. Received: January 28, 1998; revised version October 2, 1998     

The moderating effects of knowledge characteristics of firms on the financial value of innovative technology products

The development of innovative technology products is both costly and risky, and their economic value is highly uncertain. Based on a sample of 312 innovative technology products introduced between 1987 and 2006 in the U.S. and a long-horizon event study with control firms, we study the impact of innovative technology products on the long-term financial performance of a firm. In particular, we examine how the knowledge characteristics of the firm, which embrace its knowledge absorptive capacity, knowledge impact, and knowledge diversity, moderate such an impact. We find that on average an innovative technology product increases the firm's return on assets (ROA) (relative to control firms) by 2.18% in the second year after product introduction. However, the value of an innovative technology product varies with the knowledge characteristics of the firm that invented it. We find that the financial impact of technology products is stronger when firms have higher knowledge absorptive capacity, and more impactful and less diversified knowledge (as measured by patents). We classify firms into three categories based on their knowledge characteristics. We find that firms with a high knowledge fit increase their ROA by 4.55% after product introduction, while those with a low knowledge fit receive no benefit from the innovative technology products at all.     

The pricing of basket-spread options

Since the pioneering paper of Black and Scholes was published in 1973, enormous research effort has been spent on finding a multi-asset variant of their closed-form option pricing formula. In this paper, we generalize the Kirk [Managing Energy Price Risk, 1995] approximate formula for pricing a two-asset spread option to the case of a multi-asset basket-spread option. All the advantageous properties of being simple, accurate and efficient are preserved. As the final formula retains the same functional form as the Black–Scholes formula, all the basket-spread option Greeks are also derived in closed form. Numerical examples demonstrate that the pricing and hedging errors are in general less than 1% relative to the benchmark results obtained by numerical integration or Monte Carlo simulation with 10 million paths. An implicit correction method is further applied to reduce the pricing errors by factors of up to 100. The correction is governed by an unknown parameter, whose optimal value is found by solving a non-linear equation. Owing to its simplicity, the computing time for simultaneous pricing and hedging of basket-spread option with 10 underlying assets or less is kept below 1 ms. When compared against the existing approximation methods, the proposed basket-spread option formula coupled with the implicit correction turns out to be one of the most robust and accurate methods.     

Hong Kong Residents' Adoption of Risk Reduction Strategies in Leisure Travel

For decades risk has been identified as a major concern for traveling. Although some recent studies focused on studying consumers' perceived travel risks, only a few prior studies literally discussed consumers' risk reduction strategies in the context of travel-related services. To fill this gap, this study aims to investigate the travel-related risk reduction strategies that Hong Kong residents adopt to strengthen their confidence during leisure travel. This study also explores if travelers of different travel-related and sociodemographic characteristics adopt different risk reduction strategies. Among different risk reduction strategies—“purchase travel insurance,” “bring extra cash,” and “search for latest information about the destination”—are the ones which Hong Kong residents are likely to adopt when they travel for leisure. Results revealed that travel-related and sociodemographic characteristics influenced travelers' likelihood to risk reduction strategies differently. Specifically, travel experience of travelers, age, and household income displayed significant differences in the likelihood of adopting most of the risk reduction strategies.     

What explains recent changes in international monetary policy attitudes toward inflation? Evidence from developed countries

This paper identifies source(s) contributing to the recent international shift in monetary policy attitudes toward inflation. Data from 18 developed countries suggests that this shift is connected to the universal increase in policy responses to economic openness in the 1990s.     

The effect of earnings surprises on information asymmetry

We examine the effect of earnings surprises on changes in information asymmetry. We hypothesize and find that asymmetry is lower (higher) in the quarter following positive (negative) earnings surprises compared to firms that meet the consensus analyst earnings forecast. The relations between earnings surprises and information asymmetry are stronger when the surprises are more likely to capture investors’ attention. Examining the source of these changes, we show that decreased information search activities is the most important factor for asymmetry declining after positive surprises; for negative surprises, decreased uninformed trading plays a dominant role increasing asymmetry.     

Psychological Contract Breach in a Chinese Context: An Integrative Approach

ABSTRACT    This study examined the antecedents and outcomes of psychological contract breach as well as why and how psychological contract breach is related to these outcomes. Respondents were Hong Kong Chinese employees (N=152). Results showed organizational change and history of contract breach to be related to psychological contract breach which, in turn, was related to turnover intentions, psychological withdrawal behaviour, and civic virtue. Further, trust in employer fully mediated the relationship between psychological contract breach and the work outcomes of psychological withdrawal behaviour and civic virtue but partially mediated the psychological contract breach–turnover intentions relationship. Lastly, interactional justice failed to moderate the relationship between psychological contract breach and the work outcomes.     

A model for testing the relationship of nursing care and patient outcomes

Studying patient outcomes alone may not provide enough information to determine the associated factors that must be improved when the desired patient outcomes are not achieved. The purpose of this correlational study was to investigate the effects of perceived quality of nursing care and coordination of care on patients' comfort, satisfaction, and length of hospital stay. The overall model-data fit was good according to four indices: the chi-square value, goodness of fit index, adjusted goodness of fit index, and the Steigers root square error of approximation. The proposed model, effects of care quality on patient outcomes, was tested. The relationship between quality of nursing care and the proposed outcomes was tested. The results provide important information to the nursing profession and policymakers in meeting patient care needs.     

Factor supply interruption, welfare loss and shortage management

Factor supply shortage is a common problem faced by a firm. Solutions for allocating the limited supply include rationing, interruption and pricing. While previous research has examined the welfare losses generated by each solution, there is little evidence on their relative magnitudes within a common framework. The objective of this paper is to specify a model of firm behaviour under service interruption to estimate the welfare loss of service interruption. The same model is used to estimate the loss due to a price increase intended to resolve a supply shortage. Using water consumption data collected for Hong Kong, we find that relative to pricing, service interruption is inefficient for water shortage management.