A Simple Model to Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies

The canonical neoclassical model is insufficient to understand business cycle fluctuations in emerging market and developing economies. The author reformulates the model proposed by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007 Ahumada, I., and F. Butler. 2009. La enseñanza de la economía en México. Working Paper 672. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Google Scholar]) in a simple setting that can be used to teach business cycle macroeconomics for emerging market and developing economies at the undergraduate level. The simplified model is employed for qualitatively explaining facts such as the highly countercyclicality of the trade balance and the higher volatility of output and consumption compared with those observed in advanced countries.     

On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and of Fiscal Policy

There has been a major shift within macroeconomic policy over the past two decades or so in terms of the relative importance given to monetary policy and to fiscal policy in both policy and theoretical terms. The former has gained considerably in importance, with the latter being rarely mentioned. Furthermore, the nature of monetary policy has shifted away from any attempt to control some monetary aggregate (prevalent in the first half of the 1980s), and instead monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument. There has also been a general shift towards the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. This paper considers the significance of this shift in the nature of monetary policy. This enables us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy, and to explore the role of fiscal policy. We examine these questions from the point of view of the "new consensus" in monetary economics and suggest that it is rather limited in its analysis. When the analysis is broadened out to embrace empirical issues and evidence the clear conclusion emerges that monetary policy is relatively impotent. The role of fiscal policy is also considered, and we argue that fiscal policy (under specified conditions) remains a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy. This is particularly an apt conclusion under current economic conditions.     

宏观经济学中的长期与短期

宏观经济中的长期和短期因素交织在一起并且相互作用。现代宏观经济学主要依据工资和价格调整速度来界定长期和短期,研究宏观经济变量的长期和短期决定,运用不同模型分析长期问题和短期问题,从长期和短期视角考察宏观经济政策效应,并试图通过长期和短期相结合的方法兼容宏观经济学主要流派的理论分歧。     

Voter turnout in US presidential elections: does Carville’s law explain the time series?

We estimate a time series model of voter turnout for 34 US presidential elections, 1880–2012. Employing a variety of econometric techniques, our major results are as follows. (1) A negative and significant structural shift in voter turnout occurs in 1972 and is too large to be explained by the lowering of the voting age. (2) The 1972 shift is the only statistically significant structural shift to occur since the first decade of the twentieth century. (3) Short-term macroeconomic conditions significantly impact turnout, with unemployment having a positive effect. (4) Turnout in recent presidential elections has not deviated significantly from the post-1972 norm. (5) Turnout is positively related to the expected closeness of the election outcome, but contrary to some theoretical predictions, closeness exhibits no trend over time.     

利用IS-LM模型对我国宏观经济的实证分析

改革开放以来我国的经济增长取得了举世瞩目的成就,本文通过IS-LM模型分析,建立联立方程,对我国经济1980年-2000年的历史数据,采用二阶段最小二乘法,进行回归分析,解出各经济变量与GDP之间的定量关系,并对回归结果进行分析和历史数据模拟,最后根据回归结果提出相应的建议.     

Conference on Housing,Stability, and the Macroeconomy: International Perspectives

This article provides an introduction to the JMCB special issue on housing bubbles, the global financial crisis, and the ensuing recessions in countries that experienced housing busts. We focus on five themes that are important for policymakers and researchers alike: the domestic and international factors driving housing booms and busts, the relevance of the housing sector for the real economy, how monetary policy should react to housing booms and busts, how housing and mortgage finance reform could affect financial stability, and the broad lessons learned for macroeconomics and macroprudential policy.     

Learning to do: Facilitating practice in a large introductory macroeconomics class

Contemporary pedagogy encourages instructors to move away from memorization to teaching the ability to “do economics.” In such an environment, students are taught to apply knowledge of economic measurement, the economic model, and economic policy to analyze current events and policies. In this article, the authors build on existing literature describing independent activities by sharing a set of class exercises and assignments that comprise an entire course. The course discussed in this article is a large enrollment introductory course and presents a novel approach to active learning, adapted to this often-challenging context. The course emphasizes engaging students by encouraging them to practice using macroeconomic tools.     

Macroeconomic effects of increased wage flexibility in EMU

We analyse the macroeconomic effects of a more flexible wage setting process in the euro area. Reducing wage rigidities leads to far greater volatility in nominal wages, which ultimately translates into somewhat higher output and consumption volatility, while employment volatility is hardly affected. Even though volatility increases, the persistence of shocks is significantly reduced, which improves welfare of the union as a whole. We can show in a counterfactual analysis that, with lower wage rigidities, real GDP in the rest of the euro area would be higher and the unemployment rate lower compared to recent levels.     

Financial integration, information and communication technology, and macroeconomic volatility: Evidence from ten Asian economies

This paper aims to examine the impact of financial integration and information and communication technology (ICT) development on output volatility. It applies a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model, in which ICT is assumed to increase the volume and speed of capital flows. This model predicts that economies with a high ICT development or/and a high degree of financial integration exhibit greater output fluctuations in the face of monetary policy shocks, but lower output fluctuations in the face of fiscal policy shocks. The empirical findings estimated by using the panel vector autoregression approach and impulse response analysis support these predictions.     

THEORIES OF MONOPOLY CAPITALISM

Abstract. This article presents a survey of theories of monopoly capitalism. The defining characteristic of monopoly capitalism is that developed capitalist economies are seen as essentially dominated by firms which operate in oligopolistic industries. It discusses in chronological order the contributions of Hilferding, Lenin, Kalecki, Steindl, Baran and Sweezy, and Cowling to the monopoly capitalism approach. By drawing out some common features of the authors discussed we arrive at an implicit view of the nature of theories of monopoly capitalism. The macroeconomic aspects of monopoly capitalism are discussed with emphasis on the implications for the level of economic activity. A further section discusses the international aspects of the monopoly capital approach. The final section of the paper reviews criticisms of the theories of monopoly capitalism with concentration on those advanced from a Marxist perspective.