国际资本流动对房地产价格的影响——基于我国的实证检验(1998-2006年)

本文在考虑通货膨胀的条件下,利用我国1998-2006年的实际利用外资和房地产价格的季度数据建立误差纠正模型(ECM),使用Granger因果检验方法对我国的房地产价格和国际资本流动的关系进行实证检验.得出结论,短期而言,房地产价格上涨吸引了外资的流入;长期来说,外资的流入对我国的住房价格上涨产生了影响.在现阶段控制外资过度流入房地产市场,有利于保持我国房地产价格的稳定.     

Endogenous Time Preference, Inflation, and Capital Accumulation

In an infinitely lived, representative agent model with the Becker-Mulligan (1997) endogenous time preference, this paper reexamines the effects of monetary growth. An increase in the inflation rate reduces the resources spent on imagining the future, which increases the rate of time preference and decreases the steady-state value of capital stock. This model relates inflation and consumer patience, and shows that inflation will make people less patient. Finally, Friedman's optimal monetary growth rule is also investigated and found not to hold.     

稀释沉淀资金疏导经济循环

沉淀资金的变化直接影响着经济运行的变化。沉淀资金过大、膨胀速度过快是现阶段我国经济诸多问题的根源。启用储币税，与铸币税一起纳入财政收入，收入的增加自然能够稀释沉淀资金，同时化解垄断资本。改善劳动在收入分配中的比例，对农业、教育、国防和区域差异的投资倾斜，可以从根本上解决总需求不足的现状，对于破解当前存在的全局通缩、局部交替通胀等经济难题起着决定性作用。     

中国经济高位运行对近期通货膨胀压力的实证分析

本文使用2005年1-2007年6月月度数据,借助VAR计量分析方法,分析了近期通货膨胀压力与中国经济高位运行之间的关系.研究结果显示,经济高位运行所释放出来的通货膨胀压力不容忽视.其中投资需求、消费需求对物价上涨的影响比较大,但净出口(双顺差)对物价上涨的影响并不显著.     

进出口贸易对当前国内通货膨胀的影响及对策

随着国民经济的快速发展,当前我国国内面临着物价上涨所带来的压力。文章针对当前国内通胀的现状,理论分析了进出口贸易对通货膨胀的影响机理,并对其具体的影响途径加以分析,最后提出了相应的政策建议。     

Granger causality of the inflation–growth mirror in accession countries*

The paper presents a model in which the exogenous money supply causes changes in the inflation rate and the output growth rate. While inflation and growth rate changes occur simultaneously, the inflation acts as a tax on the return to human capital and in this sense induces the growth rate decrease. Shifts in the model's credit sector productivity cause shifts in the income velocity of money that can break the otherwise stable relationship between money, inflation, and output growth. Applied to two accession countries, Hungary and Poland, a VAR system is estimated for each that incorporates endogenously determined multiple structural breaks. Results indicate Granger causality positively from money to inflation and negatively from inflation to growth for both Hungary and Poland, as suggested by the model, although there is some feedback to money for Poland. Three structural breaks are found for each country that are linked to changes in velocity trends, and to the breaks found in the other country.     

Leading indicators of inflation in market economies

Inflation rates are cyclical in major market-oriented economies. Recently Geoffrey H. Moore and Stanley Kaish applied the well-known leading indicator approach to the development of a leading index of inflation cycles for the United States. Their index was based on measures of tightness in the labor market, and a measure of tightness in total credit markets, along with a measure of changes in industrial commodity prices. They found that this composite index reflects changes in inflation rate cycles reasonably well, and that it was more reliable than any of the three components taken alone. The present study broadens their study by attempting to duplicate the leading inflation index for forecasting changes in inflation rates in Canada, the United Kingdom, West Germany, France, Italy, and Japan. In general we find that the leading index is useful in anticipating changes in inflation rates in all these countries with the exception of France and Italy. As such we find that the forecasting properties of this index are often as promising in other countries as they have been in the U.S. Where they are not we conclude that there is a need for further research.     

从通货膨胀目标制看货币政策透明度建设

近年来，通货膨胀目标制已成为一种新的货币政策框架，而通货膨胀目标制的显著优点在于能通过增强货币政策的透明度，提高政策的可信度，进而提高货币政策的有效性。提高货币政策的透明度正在成为一种国际趋势。因此．本文通过借鉴实施通货膨胀目标制的西方发达国家的成功经验，探讨我国应如何加强货币政策透明度的建设，提高货币政策有效性。     

外汇占款的通货膨胀效应——基于1998-2005年的实证分析

近年来,我国外汇占款引起的内生性货币供给增加,导致国内物价水平不断走高。本文通过计量经济模型分析了外汇占款对我国通货膨胀的影响,并揭示了其内在传导机制。最后从汇率、货币政策两方面提出了相应的政策建议。     

The Impact of Inflation Measures on the Real Returns and Risk of U.S. Stocks

Using different inflation measures produces economically significant differences in both the inflation record and inflation‐adjusted stock returns. We introduce a more consistent measure of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate to better measure real returns over 1913–2004, for which the official CPI exists. We also extend the series backward to 1871 on a monthly basis, an important addition to the data series. We analyze the impact of inflation on the real standard deviation of stock returns and find that, in contrast to the results for geometric mean returns, inflation adjustments have little impact on estimates of return variability.