Impact of the Fast Track Land Reform Programme (FTLRP) on agricultural production: A tobacco success story in Zimbabwe?

The study ascertained the impact of the Fast Track Land Reform Programme (FTLRP) in Zimbabwe on tobacco production. The Chow Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Vector Error Granger-Causality Test were applied. The results reveal that there was a structural break in tobacco sales in the year 2000. Furthermore, in the long-run, area under tobacco production had a positive impact whilst number of tobacco producers had a negative impact on tobacco sold pre-FTLRP. Post-FTLRP, area of tobacco and number of tobacco producers had negative impact. In addition, the FTLRP induced an 8.94 % increase in the speed of adjustment in correcting the long-run equilibrium in tobacco sales. In the short-run, the FTLRP caused a percentage increase in the area of tobacco production and number of tobacco producers to induce a 0.65 % and 0.76 % increase in the tobacco sales, respectively. Area of tobacco production and number of tobacco producers Granger-caused tobacco sales in the pre-FTLRP period. Post-FTLRP, the number of tobacco growers Granger-caused tobacco sales. It is concluded that the FTLRP had an impact on tobacco sales, mainly through the number of tobacco growers. The study recommends the specialisation and training of the new farmers to improve productivity.     

我国房地产泡沫与银行信贷规模的相关性研究

本文首先从理论上深刻剖析了房地产泡沫与银行信贷规模相互之间的作用与传导机制,在此基础上选取2006年-2018年相关指标的年度数据,对房地产泡沫与银行信贷规模进行了图形拟合与周期性波动规律分析,分析发现二者存在极高的契合度。建立房地产泡沫的函数,构建协整方程实证发现银行信贷规模对房地产泡沫的长期弹性系数为0.51,从长期来看银行信贷规模每增加1%,房地产泡沫也相应增加0.51%,进一步建立VAR模型实证发现房地产泡沫与银行信贷规模互为格兰杰因果关系,二者相互影响、相互促进。通过方差分解实证发现银行信贷规模对房地产泡沫的变动具有重要的影响,另一方面,房地产泡沫是影响银行信贷规模变动最主要的因素。     

Temporal stability of preferences and willingness to pay for natural areas in choice experiments: A test–retest

The main objective of this paper is to test the temporal stability of stated preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) values from a Choice Experiment (CE) in a test–retest. The same group of participants was asked the same choice tasks in an internet-based CE, conducted twice with a time interval of one year without interviewer interference. We examine choice consistency at individual choice task level and transferability of the underlying indirect utility function and associated WTP values. The results show that choices are consistent in 57 percent of the choice occasions. Comparison of the choice models over time shows that the estimated preference and scale parameters are significantly different, suggesting that choice behaviour changed between the two surveys. Differences between marginal WTP estimates for individual choice attributes are statistically significant only at the 10 percent level. However, we show that this can result in significantly different WTP values for policy scenarios. The instability of estimated mean WTP values for different policy scenarios asks for caution when including WTP values in cost-benefit analysis.     

Can tourism be a key sector in reducing income inequality? An empirical investigation for Turkey

The aim of the study is to investigate the nexus between tourism and income inequality by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) test cover the period 1974–2015 in Turkey. Findings indicated that the variables are cointegrated and an increase in tourism has a positive effect on income inequality, while economic growth and trade openness have a negative effect both in the long-run and short-run. Results also denote that tourism will decrease income inequality with the expansion of tourism activities and the spread of tourism throughout society. In other words, the tourism-related Kuznets Curve hypothesis is valid for Turkey.     

How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective

This article examines the dynamic behavior of the inflation rate for eight Asian countries using a quantile unit root test. We advocate a three-way definition of inflation targeting based on perfect, imperfect and zero credibility and advance the analysis by incorporating a fully-fledged adoption of inflation targeting. In doing so, we offer new insights by showing that the credibility of inflation targeting and the alternative monetary policy frameworks in Asia are imperfect, except for Malaysia and South Korea under a fully-fledged adoption of inflation targeting. In contrast to past studies that focus on the mean-reversion in inflation rates, we also consider trend-reversion and find that Asian inflation targeting countries have been building up their monetary policy credibility more than the non- inflation targeting countries in terms of a faster rate of decline in inflation rate changes. Our results generally indicate the presence of mean reversion at the lower quantiles only. Where stationarity is present, we find evidence of a varied speed of adjustment process across the quantiles. Finally, we determine the threshold levels whereby inflation becomes stationary and demonstrate that Asian inflation rates generally display stationary behavior during periods of inflation declining or slowing down.     

Implicit attitudes toward risk: the construction and validation of the measurement method

Methods that are typically used to examine individual differences in risk attitudes (e.g. lotteries, dilemmas, questionnaires) require participants to explicitly declare their willingness to take risk. Therefore, they may be biased by the need for self-presentation or situational characteristics such as time pressure and cognitive constraints that lead to more spontaneous and automatic processing of risk-related information. The aim of this study was to construct an indirect measure of risk attitudes that is free of these methodological limitations. The method based on the Implicit Association Test shows high internal reliability and satisfactory stability over time. It correlates moderately with different explicit measures of risk attitudes that are related to sensation seeking. Finally, it is characterized by a high predictive power. Adding the implicit measure to the set of independent variables representing declarative evaluations of risk attitudes significantly improved the model predicting risky real-life behavior. We argue that the indirect assessment of risk attitudes presented in this paper may be used as an universal measure of people’s risk propensity that is free of biases related to self-presentation and situational factors.     

新形势下黑胚小麦病及检验研究

黑胚小麦病又被称为小麦黑点病,是一种在小麦胚或其他部位出现变色的病害。文章主要论述了我国在新形势下对黑胚小麦病的研究及其流行规律和病因,同时阐述了新疆粮油产品质量监督检验站在应对黑胚小麦病上的检验措施。     

The contribution of implicit cognition to the Theory of Reasoned Action Model: a study of food preferences

Abstract

Attitudes are at the heart of the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA), but problems in defining and measuring attitudes have contributed to typically low ability to predict behaviour. This article investigates the impact of potential disjuncture between evaluations that an individual externally verbalises (explicit attitudes), and evaluations that are internally held and may exist outside of conscious awareness (implicit attitudes), on the predictive ability of TRA. We study consumers’ attitudes towards eating healthy food and subsequent behaviour in a context of socially consensual behaviour. An Implicit Association Test (IAT) is used to measure implicit attitudes, and these scores are contrasted with self-reported explicit attitude scores. Ninety one participants took part in the study. We found, surprisingly, that implicit attitude has no significant effect on behavioural intention. However, a disjuncture between an individual’s implicit and explicit attitudes, reflecting internal psychological conflict, affected behaviour.     

On the test score gap between Roma and non‐Roma students in Hungary and its potential causes

Using unique data from Hungary, the gap in reading and mathematics test scores between Roma and non‐Roma 8th grade students is assessed and a substantial gap between them revealed. Standardized test scores as well as the fraction of students with competences considered inadequate are examined. Regardless of measurement and subject area, the bulk of the gap is explained by social differences in income, wealth and parental education. Using reduced‐form regressions, two major mediating mechanisms are identified: first, on average the home environment of Roma children is less favourable for cognitive development; second, the educational environment of the average Roma student is different from the average non‐Roma student. Comparing students with similar home environments from the same school and class, the ethnic gap in test scores is found to be insignificant. Ethnic differences in the home environment are explained by social disparity, and ethnicity seems to play no additional role in that regard. The unequal distribution of Roma students in schools and classes is found to be explained predominantly by social difference, too, with a significant residual portion, indicating the effect of ethnic segregation.     

房地产市场在货币政策传导机制中的作用研究

利用2006年1月至2008年12月的相关数据,运用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法,先研究货币政策到房地产市场传导的有效性,再分析房地产市场到最终目标（实体经济）传导的有效性。结果表明：房地产市场在货币政策传导机制中发挥了重要作用,M2、M1是房价指数变化的格兰杰原因,房价指数是工业增加值、居民消费物价指数、社会消费品零售总额变化的格兰杰原因。