军民融合协同创新驱动产业园区高质量发展研究

军民融合产业园区高质量发展对于推进军民深度融合、在全国形成可复制可推广经验具有重要意义。军民融合协同创新通过促进新知识涌现、推进新产业集聚发展，最终汇聚经济发展新动能，驱动园区高质量发展。在提出军民融合协同创新驱动园区高质量发展的机理与组织框架基础上，将发展模式归纳为以分享经济为背景的资源共享模式、以新型研发机构为核心的第三方模式、以产业联盟为核心的产业链拓展模式和以交易平台为核心的“PPP”模式，最后提出相关对策建议。     

产军协同、政府科技支持与技术创新效率研究

运用空间数据分析方法，检验产军协同、政府科技支持与技术创新效率在我国省域间的分布格局。研究表明，三者均存在显著的正向空间相关性，即正向空间溢出效应，并且在不同地区形成局部空间集聚，存在高低非均衡的“俱乐部”现象。基于空间误差模型和空间滞后模型，实证检验产军协同、政府科技支持对技术创新效率的影响。结果发现，从全国和分地区看，产军协同、政府科技支持均能够显著促进技术创新效率提升，并且二者存在显著的交互作用，能够发挥彼此间的互补效应，进一步促进技术创新效率提升；不同地区产军协同、政府科技支持对技术创新效率的影响程度存在较大差异，西部地区产军协同、政府科技支持对技术创新效率的促进作用比东部和中部地区显著。     

集成动员理论下军民科技协同创新机制设计研究

军民科技协同创新能力是国家科技整体竞争力的重要组成部分。近年来，军民科技协同创新取得显著成效，但也存在诸多问题，严重阻碍了军民科技协同创新深入发展。因此，迫切需要对军民科技协同创新机制进行系统性设计。基于集成动员理论的核心思想，借鉴其组织模式和运行机制理论，针对军民科技协同创新机制不明晰等问题，对军民科技协同创新机制进行系统性设计，提出在军民科技协同创新管理机构的引导下，将军民科技协同创新的各种资源要素和功能集成于军民科技协同创新服务平台，为军民科技协同创新流程和成果转化流程两大板块提供相关服务，并构建相关运行保障机制，进而实现军民科技协同创新集成化、敏捷化、模块化、高效化管理，进一步完善军民科技协同创新管理体系。     

Forecasting unknown-unknowns by boosting the risk radar within the risk intelligent organisation

This theoretical perspective paper interprets (un)known-(un)known risk quadrants as being formed from both abstract and concrete risk knowledge. It shows that these quadrants are useful for categorising risk forecasting challenges against the levels of abstract and concrete risk knowledge that are typically available, as well as for measuring perceived levels of abstract and concrete risk knowledge available for forecasting in psychometric research. Drawing on cybersecurity risk examples, a case is made for refocusing risk management forecasting efforts towards changing unknown-unknowns into known-knowns. We propose that this be achieved by developing the ‘boosted risk radar’ as organisational practice, where suitably ‘risk intelligent’ managers gather ‘risk intelligence information’, such that the ‘risk intelligent organisation’ can purposefully co-develop both abstract and concrete risk forecasting knowledge. We also illustrate what this can entail in simple practical terms within organisations.     

CAUSAL INFERENCE ON EDUCATION POLICIES: A SURVEY OF EMPIRICAL STUDIES USING PISA,TIMSS AND PIRLS

The identification of the causal effects of educational policies is the top priority in recent education economics literature. As a result, a shift can be observed in the strategies of empirical studies. They have moved from the use of standard multivariate statistical methods, which identify correlations or associations between variables only, to more complex econometric strategies, which can help to identify causal relationships. However, exogenous variations in databases have to be identified in order to apply causal inference techniques. This is a far from straightforward task. For this reason, this paper provides an extensive and comprehensive overview of the literature using quasi‐experimental techniques applied to three well‐known international large‐scale comparative assessments, such as PISA, PIRLS or TIMSS, over the period 2004–2016. In particular, we review empirical studies employing instrumental variables, regression discontinuity designs, difference in differences and propensity score matching to the above databases. Additionally, we provide a detailed summary of estimation strategies, issues treated and profitability in terms of the quality of publications to encourage further potential evaluations. The paper concludes with some operational recommendations for prospective researchers in the field.     

Do pensions foster education? An empirical perspective

The paper examines the effect of population ageing on public education spending. On the one hand, ageing is expected to have a negative effect on education, as an increasing number of retirees results in ‘intergenerational conflict’ and, hence, the condemnation of education expenditure. On the other hand, ageing, in combination with pay-as-you-go pension systems, offers incentives for the working-age generation to invest in the public education of the young in order to ‘reap’ the benefits (that is, higher income tax/contributions) of their greater future productivity. Empirical evidence derived from the application of a fixed effects approach to panel data for OECD countries shows that the increasing share of elderly people has a non-linear effect on education spending. This indicates a certain degree of intergenerational conflict. Nevertheless, we find that future population ageing, which reinforces the mechanism linking public education and pensions, reflects positively on education expenditure. Furthermore, by disaggregating total education expenditure by educational levels, we observe that this effect is led by levels of non-compulsory education, probably as a reflection of the direct connection to labor productivity.     

Does educational diversity of managers matter for the performance of team‐managed funds?

We study the effect of the educational diversity of managers on the performance of team‐managed mutual funds using a large sample of U.S. equity funds from 1994 to 2013. We consider diversity in terms of both final educational degree and field of educational specialisation. We find that, in general, both types of diversity have a positive impact on fund performance, and our results are robust over a wide range of performance metrics and changes in market conditions.     

Soldiers don't go mad: Shell shock and accounting intransigence in the British Army 1914-18

This research examines intransigence in accounting systems. Using historical research methods and archival sources, it explores intransigence in the Royal Army Medical Corps’ accounting systems in the context of the incidence of shell shock among British Army soldiers fighting at the battlefront during the First World War. The Army did not recognise shell shock as a medical condition and made few changes to its medical accounting systems for soldiers with shell shock. The four factors of system stability of the AGIL scheme (adaptation, goal attainment, integration, latency) are used to understand the limited medical accounting response to shell shock. This research indicates that in addition to historical and internal political reasons for intransigence, intransigence will occur unless a factor in the AGIL scheme is sufficiently impaired to make the accounting system unstable and force system change. This research finding has contemporary relevance, explaining accounting intransigence in response to issues of social concern.     

农民工教育与职业的匹配及其工资效应——基于城市规模视角

农民工教育与职业的匹配状况对提高劳动力资源利用、增加劳动供给质量具有重要意义。本文使用中国流动人口动态监测调查2011~2016年微观数据,基于城市规模视角分析了农民工教育与职业的匹配状况对工资效应的差别。研究发现:人口规模越大的城市,农民工教育与职业的错配比例越高;中小城市农民工教育过度对工资的影响呈现工资嘉赏效应,大城市农民工教育过度对工资的影响以工资惩罚为主;而教育不足对农民工工资则普遍存在负向影响。农民工教育与职业不匹配对工资影响的理论机制表明,中小城市支持人力资本理论模型,而大城市和特大城市则支持分配理论模型。这意味着,农民工在中小城市表现出学历越高人力资本回报越高的特点;而在大城市,教育与职业适配则更为重要。因此,改善城市层面的教育-职业的适配性,让农民工在城市劳动力市场上自由流动和工作转换,进一步增强城市间劳动力资源的流动是相关政策调节的重点。     

Primary education and fertility rates

Unified growth theory advances that the transition from a Malthusian regime to sustained economic growth is characterized by technological progress and, amongst other things, by an increase in demand for human capital which in turn creates incentives for lower fertility rates. Bearing that in mind, I ask the question: has southern Africa escaped the Malthusian stagnation? Specifically, I study whether primary school completion rates have played any role in total fertility rates in all countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) during the 1980–2009 period. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the results, based on dynamic panel time‐series methods, suggest that primary education is associated with lower fertility in the SADC, or that the community is already trading‐off quantity for quality of children. Although I do not claim causality, overall the results are significant because, in accordance with unified growth theory, they suggest that the SADC is experiencing its own transition from the Malthusian stagnation epoch into sustained growth, or that the SADC is going through its own post‐Malthusian regime.