Application of logistic analysis to the history of physics

Recently, two analyses have tried to put technological progress in a larger context. One interpretation hypothesizes that technological progress is likely to continue at increasingly higher rates of change. Another interpretation, which includes data from the beginning of the universe to the present, suggests that the universe is approaching a transition point in a logistic development of complexity. This logistic development is similar to the way ideas or products diffuse in a population, i.e., the rate of discovery in a field of knowledge is proportional to the amount discovered and the amount to be discovered. To test a part of this hypothesis, a leading indicator field (fundamental physics) was identified and the events in the history of this field were analyzed. Twelve subfields were identified and grouped into six stages. Each stage seemed to demonstrate a logistic-like development. By analyzing both the median time of development and the characteristic time of development of these stages, the overall development of this one field was found to suggest logistic development. These data seem to indicate that development in fundamental physics is slowing down, with at least one subfield beyond string physics yet to be developed. The data tend to support the hypothesis that a knowledge field can develop logistically.     

Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis

This paper aims to analyse the feasibility of policy coordination among the ASEAN-5 economies. This is done by determining whether they experience symmetric responses to common shocks. Given that the problem of dimensionality plagues large-scale macroeconomic modelling, a Global VAR model by Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner (2004) and Dees, Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007) is used. The results in this paper provide some weak evidence of symmetric responses to the common (global) shocks of interest: a US monetary policy shock, a US output shock, a Chinese output shock; an oil price shock. Shocks from the US produced the most symmetric responses. The lack of symmetry in some cases has implications for further policy coordination. Since migrant remittances could provide an adjustment mechanism, further labour market integration is needed as it currently lags behind trade and financial integration in the region.     

广义转型视角下的制度移植——日本明治维新与俄罗斯休克疗法的比较研究

从广义上来说,转型是从一个社会成熟状态向另一个社会成熟状态的转变。通过移植先进国家的制度来推动制度变迁是实现转型的一种重要方式。在历史上,制度移植既有成功的经验,也有失败的教训。通过对日本明治维新和俄罗斯休克疗法的比较,文章认为,成功的制度移植需要注重对慢动制度的诱导。而教育、示范、学习乃至奖惩等方式在诱导慢动制度变革方面可以发挥重要的作用,从而为制度移植的成功提供保障。在此基础上,文章进一步分析了俄罗斯转型的发生机理和绩效。     

银行危机与政府干预——基于中国金融史的研究

当银行危机到来时,政府是否应当进行干预？政府干预对银行业会产生何种影响？这些问题在金融史研究中长期以来备受关注,且具有重要的现实意义。本文以1934年白银风潮冲击下中国大规模的银行危机为背景,对比了当时中国最大的两个金融中心上海和天津的银行业同业组织在危机中的表现,发现天津银行业同业公会成员相比于非银行同业公会的成员受到了更严重的挤兑危机,且在危机期间放款额出现了更显著的下降。而上海银行同业公会则没有受到大规模挤兑,且反而在金融危机期间扩大了信贷规模。本文认为是由于政府干预程度的不同导致了津沪两地银行同业公会的不同表现。具体机制为:其一,政府干预推动了银行业信息公开,降低了信息不对称带来的恐慌和挤兑;其二,政府干预下银行组织承担了更多的财政义务。     

后金融危机的货币供给过剩及其效应

本文针对我国货币政策的操作特征,使用阈值协整方法扩展现有的货币需求模型,度量后金融危机时期的货币供给过剩及其对通胀与经济增长的非线性调节效应,并进而设定广义脉冲响应函数揭示货币供给过剩对通胀与经济增长的冲击效应。主要结论为:2009年第三季度以后,我国货币供给过剩且过剩幅度快速增加,其中名义M1过剩12.56%,名义M2过剩11.31%。2009Q3—2010Q3我国处于货币供给过剩机制下,在该机制下,央行谨慎地实施从紧货币政策,从紧货币政策对通胀和经济增长的调节效应相对较强。货币供给过剩对通胀和经济增长的冲击在前2年为正值,在随后近3年为负值。这说明我国现阶段适度宽松货币政策的退出必须谨慎,退出速度不宜过快。     

货币冲击与中国经济波动——基于DSGE模型的数量分析

基于1993~2008年的季度数据,本文在一个包含Calvo价格粘性的新凯恩斯主义模型中,讨论了中国货币冲击与经济增长的关系。在假定货币政策通过调整货币供给增长实施的前提下,本文根据模型模拟和实际数据的对比以及脉冲响应函数分析得出以下结论:(1)货币并非我国经济波动根源,实际产出对货币供给具有一定反馈作用。(2)通货膨胀的顺周期性和领先增长表明中国经济周期存在总需求拉动的特性。物价波动在中短期主要由货币供应量波动引起。(3)货币政策对实体经济有效但效果有限,货币供给变动对投资的作用效力更大,对消费需求刺激有限。     

互动教学在原子核物理中的运用

原子核物理课程是核技术专业的一门极其重要的专业基础课程.原子核物理作为一门理论课程,学生普遍反映枯燥无味.为改变现状将采用多种形式的互动教学方式,来提高学生对原子核物理理论的理解和掌握.实践证明该方法可以培养学生的学习兴趣,充分调动学生的积极性,在实际教学中,获得了良好的教学效果.     

经济周期波动与我国汽车产业周期性分析

我国汽车产业周期波动大趋势与经济周期波动趋势基本一致,但波幅明显大于后者。我国股市和房地产周期波动与汽车产业周期性波动趋势基本一致,但汽车产业周期波动有明显的滞后性。金融政策与汽车产业周期波动有正相关关系,且能加大产业的波动幅度。     

城市劳动力市场上的就业冲击对家庭教育决策的影响

本文使用中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济所的城市住户调查资料,分析了父母的就业冲击对子女大学入学决策的影响。作者对中国经济结构的调整和劳动力市场冲击进行了介绍,讨论了中国的高等教育体制及其新近在融资和扩招方面的改革措施。在经验分析部分,我们仔细地控制了家庭之间不可观测的差异性所产生的影响,并利用线性概率模型对父母就业冲击所产生的影响进行了测算,结果发现父亲失去工作使即将进入大学的子女的入学可能性下降了约30%。     

A Study on Flow Experience Structures: Enhancement or Death,Prospects for the Korean Wave

In proposing the concept of flow which focuses on experiencing the sites visited by Korean Wave tourists as induced by drama or movies, the role of involvement level (variables) of Korean Wave tourists in influencing flow construct as they experience the sites of FIT (Film Induced Tourism) was investigated. The involvement level of Korean Wave visitors was found to operate as a mechanism by which challenge, skills, and focused attention on site might be more organized or more actively experienced. This recognizes that there is clearly a need for making the FIT sites exposed much by any mix of various media. The findings of this study showed that challenges and skills influence enjoyment as an output factor of flow. Film site visitors are assumed to participate in the roles of film characters, experiencing the places and the atmosphere. The degree of visitors' reflections of the film optimizes awareness of flow experiences on the site. Therefore it is necessary to provide more detailed experiential programs on the film sites with a wide variety of flow-related contents in the film.