Sentiment-scaled CAPM and market mispricing

This study explores the conditional version of the capital asset pricing model on sentiment to provide a behavioural intuition behind the value premium and market mispricing. We find betas (β) and the market risk premium to vary over time across different sentiment indices and portfolios. More importantly, the state β derived from this sentiment-scaled model provides a behavioural explanation of the value premium and a set of anomalies driven by mispricing. Different from the static β–return relation that gives a flat security market line, we document upward security market lines when plotting portfolio returns against their state βs and portfolios with higher state βs earn higher returns.     

严寒地区高速铁路混凝土基床聚氨酯保温特性试验研究

基于严寒区京沈客专朝阳试验段路基基床的温度监测资料分析,研究不同厚度聚氨酯保温板对高速铁路路基混凝土基床温度变化特性影响.测试结果表明:①铺设聚氨酯保温板能够有效阻断严寒区环境与路基基床间的热量传递,保温效果与板厚相关;②地温大多数时间呈阳高阴低现象,同时阴、阳坡路基温差波动幅度随埋深逐渐减小;③基床表层阴、阳面各测点的温度变化起始时间一致,而阴面的冻结时间比阳面晚一个月.由此表明,保温板能够有效降低环境与混凝土道床之间的热交换,但是对路基阴、阳坡的影响存在差异.建议在严寒地区高速铁路路基阳、阴坡可以采取不同厚度的聚氨酯保温板,减小阴阳坡地温差异,保持季冻土路基温度变化稳定.     

Application of bootstrap re-sampling method in statistical measurement of sustainability

Sustainability is of essential interest for many organizations and is defined as the ability to maintain existing resources at a certain rate or level when encountered with barriers. Factors affecting sustainability are categorized as enablers (capacities) and barriers (challenges) that have positive and negative effects on sustainability, respectively. To evaluate the status of sustainability, organizations need a measurement method to account for all the aspects of the sustainability classified into social, economic, and environmental tiers. Previously many researchers have provided indexes and measure specific to the studied field, which is not applicable to other areas. Furthermore, the proposed methods fail to cover all the aspects of sustainability. This study investigates a statistical method to measure the sustainability and the application of the bootstrap re-sampling method in order to overcome the problem with normality assumption when the sample size is not large enough and thus develop a more realistic stochastic model. The Bootstrap re-sampling method enables the unbiased estimation of population parameters such as mean and standard deviation. The proposed method is evaluated by comparing its results with those found in the literature.     

习近平治水理念研究

[目的]总结习近平治水理念,为指导水利绿色发展提供指南。[方法]以习近平讲话和出版的论述为基础材料,开展系统的综合分析。[结果]习近平治水理念主要包括:水利为民、系统治水、生态优先、科学先行、节水优先、空间均衡、两手发力、久久为功辩证思维和国家安全。[结论]习近平治水理念是立足于中国国情水情富有创新性的水利理论概括和经验总结,是指导新时代中国水利工作的指南,是水利绿色发展的科学世界观和方法论,可为世界水利发展提供中国智慧。     

Early Experience and Later Outcomes of Education: Schooling Transition Evidence from Indonesia

This paper investigates the effect of early school experience on later educational attainment. Using the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), we find that students who repeat a grade at primary school are less likely to progress to junior high school. We also find that grade retention is associated with lower rates of transition from junior high school to senior high school. The relationship persists across years and samples. Meanwhile, the age of students when starting school and the hours they spend there have limited effects on whether they continue their schooling. We also observe that the effects of parental education and household income on the transition of students from primary school to junior high school are weakening. Given the long-term impact of grade retention, policymakers should be cautious when recommending it for underachieving children and should look for alternatives.     

Can welfare be measured with a preference-satisfaction index?

Welfare in economics is generally conceived of in terms of the satisfaction of preferences, but a general, comparable index measure of welfare is generally not taken to be possible. In recent years, in response to the usage of measures of subjective well-being as indices of welfare in economics, a number of economists have started to develop measures of welfare based on preference-satisfaction. In order to evaluate the success of such measures, I formulate criteria of policy-relevance and theoretical success in the context of preference-satisfaction measures of welfare. I present a detailed case study of the methodological choices put forward in a prominent generalized proposal for measuring welfare through preferences recently published in the American Economic Review. I contrast this with an alternative welfare measure which also uses preferences to weight aspects of welfare: the ICECAP-A measure. I assess the methodology of both approaches in detail and argue that the two goals of a preference measure of welfare can only be satisfied at the expense of making a measure prohibitively costly.     

一种基于预测值量测转换的卡尔曼滤波跟踪算法

在雷达目标跟踪中，系统量测信息通常在球坐标系下获得。为了采用经典卡尔曼滤波算法实现有效目标跟踪，通常采用量测转换方法将非线性量测信息转换到直角坐标系中。针对传统量测转换方法基于量测值计算转换误差统计特性而导致的估计结果有偏问题，提出了一种基于预测值的量测转换方法，并将其与卡尔曼滤波算法相结合，获得了一种基于预测值量测转换的卡尔曼滤波跟踪算法。仿真结果表明，与现有的基于量测转换的卡尔曼滤波算法相比，该算法能在不提高运算量的情况下有效改善目标跟踪效果，跟踪精度提升约20%。     

How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the U.S. suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast to the rapid declines reported from the mid‐1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that the performance of microprocessor units (MPUs) has continued to improve at a rapid pace. Over the course of the 2000s, the MPU prices posted by Intel, the dominant producer of MPUs, became much stickier over the chips' life cycle. As a result of this change, we argue that the matched‐model methodology used in the PPI for MPUs likely started to be biased after the early 2000s and that hedonic indexes can provide a more accurate measure of price change since then. MPU prices fell rapidly through 2004 on every price measure we present, with the PPI declining at an even quicker pace than the hedonic indexes. However, from 2004 to 2009, our preferred hedonic index fell faster than the PPI, and from 2009 to 2013 the gap widened further, with our preferred index falling at an average annual rate of 42 percent, while the PPI declined at only a 6 percent rate. Given that MPUs currently represent about half of U.S. shipments of semiconductors, this difference has important implications for gauging the rate of innovation in the semiconductor sector.     

Product line transformation,foreign sales,and firm value: Evidence from COVID-19 pandemic governance in urban China

Using a sample of Chinese firms, we examine stock market reaction to firms that announce a change in their product lines to those related to COVID-19 management (medical masks and ventilators, among others). We find the market reacts positively to the announcements. In addition, when a firm ordinarily has a large share of export sales, the stock market reaction is more salient, indicating that export sales provide a certification effect that positively signals investors. Additional analysis on moderating effects suggest that, conditional on foreign sales, prior experience with medical product lines or less uncertainty about supply availability enhances the cumulative announcement returns (CARs), while the adverse impact of firm size on CAR magnifies.     

Lexical Measures of Social Inequality: From Pigou‐Dalton to Hammond

A measure of social inequality is essentially a rational ordering over a space of social distributions. However, different measures, including the most popular ones, may provide very different rankings over the same set of typical distributions. We thus propose an axiomatic approach to inequality measurement mainly based on the Hammond principle, a natural generalization of the Pigou‐Dalton principle, attempting to clarify the true nature of social inequality: the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Under the standard assumptions of anonymity and scale independence, we show that a social inequality ordering is the leximinimax measure if and only if it satisfies the first Hammond principle, and it is the leximaximin measure if and only if it satisfies the second Hammond principle.