Institutional dynamics and access to non-farm employment in rural China, 1950–1996

This article examines non-farm employment in the context of Chinese rural institutional change, based on evidence from discrete-time logistic models for event history analysis using the Life History and Social Change survey. We find the transition to non-farm sector rose rapidly during the Great Leap Forward and market reform, while the Cultural Revolution saw it reach the lowest ebb. While male advantage prevailed exclusively during the Cultural Revolution and early marketization, education possessed a stable positive effect in all historical periods. Although the returns to different kinds of political capital vary along with institutional dynamics, intergenerational reproduction was greatly reduced after the Cultural Revolution.     

成都市国际化营商环境升级版战略研究--基于万博新经济研究院营商环境指数的分析

打造营商环境是促进经济的重要环节,提升营商环境是增强城市竞争力和吸引力的手段。论文通过引入万博新经济研究院发布的《后疫情时代中国城市营商环境指数评价报告(2020)》,多角度对比分析成都与国内先发城市,发现成都在营商环境方面的优势与短板,最后得出改进措施,旨在为成都打造国际化营商环境提供理论依据。     

Forecasting the volatility of asset returns: The informational gains from option prices

A new class of forecasting models is proposed that extends the realized GARCH class of models through the inclusion of option prices to forecast the variance of asset returns. The VIX is used to approximate option prices, resulting in a set of cross-equation restrictions on the model’s parameters. The full model is characterized by a nonlinear system of three equations containing asset returns, the realized variance, and the VIX, with estimation of the parameters based on maximum likelihood methods. The forecasting properties of the new class of forecasting models, as well as a number of special cases, are investigated and applied to forecasting the daily S&P500 index realized variance using intra-day and daily data from September 2001 to November 2017. The forecasting results provide strong support for including the realized variance and the VIX to improve variance forecasts, with linear conditional variance models performing well for short-term one-day-ahead forecasts, whereas log-linear conditional variance models tend to perform better for intermediate five-day-ahead forecasts.     

我国农作物秸秆综合利用产业促进政策研究

［目的］深入地分析了我国秸秆综合利用产业现行促进政策，阐述了存在的主要问题，并提出针对性解决方法，以期为促进秸秆综合利用政策体系建设提供政策建议。［方法］按照法律法规、目标引导和考核、财税补贴、技术研发和推广、信息统计等进行分类，综合评述各类现行政策的特点、使用范围和有效性，并采用相关者利益分析等方法分析存在问题，提出政策建议。［结果］随着我国秸秆露天焚烧问题日益突出，国家加大了对秸秆综合利用重视的程度，出台一系列关于秸秆综合利用等方面的法律、法规和激励政策等，初步构建了秸秆综合利用政策体系，呈现出聚焦关键环节、关键技术和重点地区的趋势。但是，还存在着政策的有效性有限，未形成合力； 农民参与度低； 使用环节缺乏激励政策等问题。［结论］建议出台区域生态补偿制度，落实耕地地力保护补贴政策，鼓励终端产品使用和消费等政策。     

山东省生态用地变化及驱动因素影响评价

［目的］研究第二次土地利用现状调查以来山东省生态用地变化特点及驱动因素，评价各类驱动因素对生态用地的影响程度，为科学编制区域空间规划，保护和合理利用生态用地提供参考。［方法］文章构建了全省生态用地转移矩阵，归纳了影响生态因素变化的主要驱动因素，提出了驱动力指数计算方法，定量分析和比对了各驱动因素对生态用地的影响。［结果］2009—2017年生态用地共计转出2048万hm2，占生态用地总面积的472%； 转入316万hm2，占生态用地总面积的072%。8年来全省生态用地净减少1732万hm2，占2009年生态用地总面积的400%。生态用地的流向以耕地最多，向城镇村及工矿用地流出次之，向设施农用地的流出也有较大面积。［结论］（1）在影响生态用地变化的六大驱动因素中，耕地开发和城镇村工矿占用的驱动力指数最高，非耕农业占用对生态用地的变化有一定影响。（2）六大因素中城镇村工矿占用对当地生态环境的破坏力最强。     

江苏省农业绿色发展水平区域差异及趋势分析

［目的］农业绿色发展是保证我国农业可持续发展的有效方式，探究江苏省农业绿色发展水平和地区差异，为我国其他地区农业绿色发展研究提供参考。［方法］文章采用熵权法和层次分析法确定农业绿色发展水平评价指标权重，运用锡尔指数对区域内和区域间农业绿色发展水平差异进行测度。［结果］2012—2017年江苏省农业绿色发展水平有明显提高，绿色供给的得分最高，环境友好和生态制度的得分最低。各市农业绿色发展水平综合指数分析结果表明，苏州农业绿色发展水平最高，南京、无锡次之，连云港、淮安和宿迁农业绿色发展水平较低。锡尔指数分析结果表明江苏省区域内农业绿色发展水平差异都在逐渐缩小。［结论］农产品绿色供给是江苏省农业绿色发展的最大优势，资源节约利用和环境友好发展方面较低，由于经济发展对资源利用强度在持续增加，资源节约利用仍是绿色发展的短板，因此江苏省资源效益利用仍有上升的空间，且区域内发达地区农业绿色发展的带动效应明显。     

区域森林公园生态效率实证分析——以华东地区为例

采用Malmquist-Luenberger指数法对华东地区森林公园生态效率值进行测定的结果表明:从时序范围看,2011—2016年华东地区森林公园生态效率的均值为1. 006,但从2015年起进入下滑态势,说明华东地区森林公园的生态效率已经达到有效水平,但在扩大森林公园规模的同时忽视了对环境的有效保护以及资源的合理配置;从空间差异角度看,只有浙江与安徽两省的森林公园生态效率值未达到有效水平(分别为0. 851和0. 871),其余各省(市)的森林公园生态效率值均大于1,说明区域内存在一定的差异性;技术进步指数下降是制约MalmquistLuenberger指数提升的主要原因。由此可见,加大技术投入,促成交流合作机制,形成特有的竞争优势等,对提高区域森林公园生态效率是十分重要的。     

The maturity effect of stock index futures: Speculation or carry arbitrage?

Using the implementation of trading restrictions on CSI 300 index futures market as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines the maturity effect of stock index futures and its determinants. The results show that the maturity effect changes from weakly positive to significantly negative after trading restrictions are implemented. We find that the change in the maturity effect is rooted in the speculative effect, which is measured by the time pattern of price sensitivity to information, while there is a lack of support for the carry arbitrage effect on the maturity effect of index futures. Our findings provide an opportunity to better understand volatility dynamics in the equity futures market.     

Factors influencing consumers' purchase decision-making in O2O business model: Evidence from consumers' overall evaluation

Online-to-offline (O2O) has become a rapidly growing e-commerce model worldwide, but the factors influencing consumers' purchase decision-making have not been examined well. After exploring the working mechanism of the O2O model, we extract eleven indexes of consumers' overall evaluation in the O2O model with Crawlzilla and R techniques. Social network analysis (SNA) is adopted to build social networks reflecting consumers' overall evaluation in the O2O model. Based on the modified social network and the extracted subgraph, this study (N = 768) reveals consumers' overall evaluation behavior patterns in the O2O model by calculating network density, central potential, edge betweenness. The results show that shoppers overall evaluate the eleven indexes, especially perceived product quality, online product price, promotion intensity, business reputation, and product brand, which reflects the significant associations between the indexes. Among all the eleven evaluation indexes, perceived product quality, online product price, and business reputation dominate consumers’ decision-making behavior. When making purchase decisions, consumers not only overall consider online product price, perceived product quality, and business reputation but also balance perceived product quality, business reputation, and promotion intensity. Finally, we make some suggestions on marketing strategy for e-commerce companies.     

生计资本对黄土丘陵区贫困人口生计活动的影响及评价*——以甘肃省榆中县为例

［目的］通过深入研究黄土丘陵区贫困人口生计资本对生计活动的影响，为解决农村贫困问题，提升农户生计资本存量、实现区域可持续生计发展提供科学依据。［方法］文章以甘肃省榆中县为例，基于对榆中县农户的调查数据，采用熵值法分析了东北部山区、中部川区和西南部山区贫困人口的生计资本状况和生计活动方式，并对其生计活动进行评价。［结果］从农户的生计资本组合来看，榆中县整体自然资本和人力资本相对物质资本、金融资本、社会资本3类资本较为富裕，尤其在西南部山区和东北部山区3类资本缺乏型农户比例较高。中部川区各乡镇人口的总体生计资本状况较好，总指数最高，而西南部山区次之、东北部山区最低，两者生计资本状况总体匮乏。农户的生计活动主要以种植、养殖和外出打工为主，生计活动多样性程度偏低； 中部川区人口的生计活动多样性指数最高，西南部山区次之、东北部山区最低，且整体受教育程度偏低，加之物质资本、金融资本、社会资本缺乏进一步限制了当地农户的生计多样性。［结论］（1）针对不同生计资本水平和生计活动多样性程度偏低的贫困地区，需要进一步发挥民族文化产业扶贫优势，开启地域产业扶贫新模式，打造地域无公害特色农业产业品牌，提高农户物质资本边际贡献； （2）发展小额信贷金融服务，改善农户金融资本存量，预防村际农户金融资本二元极化； （3）实施免费教育培训技能学习，打造教育培训脱贫示范村，提高人力资本存量，缓解贫困人口生计压力等提高经济发展水平的扶贫政策措施。