Asymmetric effects of industrial production,money supply and exchange rate changes on stock returns in Turkey

The aim of this article is twofold: First, it examines the asymmetric effects of industrial production, money supply and RER on stock returns in Turkey by using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the periods of 1994:01–2017:05 and 2002:01–2017:05. Second, it tries to determine whether there is a change of these macroeconomic variables’ effects on stock returns after the 2001 financial crisis since after 2002 period represents a structural break from the past in terms of economic, political and macroeconomic policy approaches. The study finds that the effects of the changes in industrial production, money supply and RER on stock returns are asymmetric, and the asymmetries are larger after the 2002 subsample compared to the full sample period. The empirical results further suggest that tight monetary policies appear to retard the stock returns more than easy monetary policies that stimulate them.     

Limited information-processing capacity and asymmetric stock correlations

Through an orthogonalized impulse-response analysis, I studied the relationship between the variance risk premium, market variance and stock correlations in the French stock market from September 2002 through September 2006, using high-frequency data-based measures. Variance risk premium is estimated using realized variances and index options-implied variances and used as a state vector to proxy investors perceived uncertainty. I found that a shock to variance risk premium causes long-lasting increases in the market variance pointing to the limitedness of investors information-processing capacity. At the same time, the shock generates consecutive increases in realized correlations between individual stocks and the market portfolio. I propose this as a possible explanation for the asymmetric/counter-cyclic behaviour of stock correlations.     

Prediction of bank financial strength ratings: The case of Turkey

Bank financial strength ratings have gained widespread popularity especially after the recent financial turmoil. Rating agencies were criticized because of their ratings and failure to predict the bankruptcy of the banks. Based on this observation, we investigate whether the forecast of the rating of bank's financial strength using publicly available data is consistent with those of the credit rating agency. We use the data of Turkish banks for this investigation. We take a country-specific approach because previous studies found that proxies used for environmental factors (political, economic, and financial risk of the country) did not have any explanatory power and it is hard to find international data for other important factors such as franchise value, concentration, and efficiency. We use two popular multivariate statistical techniques (multiple discriminant analysis and ordered logistic regression) to estimate a suitable model and we compare their performances with those of two mostly used data mining techniques (Support Vector Machine and Artificial Neural Network). Our results suggest that our predictions are consistent with those of Moody's financial strength rating in general.. The important factors in rating are found to be profitability (measured by return on equity), efficient use of resources, and funding the businesses and the households instead of the government that shows efficient placement of the funds.     

Economics of upgrading gravel roads to Otta seal surface

Maintenance of low volume roads especially gravel roads is costly, and millions of funding annually are spent for aggregate replacement alone. Otta seal, compared to other bituminous surface treatments (BSTs) for low volume roads that require high-quality materials and specialized expertise, can be constructed using cheaper local aggregates and accessible equipment. However, only three states have reported Otta seal constructions and performance in the US. In this study, an economic analysis was conducted to compare the cost of maintaining a gravel road to the cost of upgrading an existing gravel road to a double Otta seal surface. This analysis was conducted at three levels: deterministic life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA), a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation-based LCCA, and a traffic based economic analysis. A generic one-mile rural road in Midwest was considered as a case study location. Although, according to the analysis conducted in this paper, an upgrade to Otta seal investment might be justified by maintenance savings, resorting to only such justification cannot warrant investment in most cases. The upgrade from gravel road to Otta seal, or any other BSTs, might be justified in terms of enhancing safety for road users and also encouraging economic development beneficial to local areas.     

The process of technical change in UK manufacturing

This paper tests the validity of the Fisher hypothesis, which establishes a positive relation between interest rates and expected inflation, for the G7 countries and 45 developing economies. For this purpose, we estimate a version of the GARCH specification of the hypothesis for all countries included in the sample. We also test the augmented Fisher relation by including the inflation uncertainty in the equation. The simple Fisher relation holds in all G7 countries but in only 23 developing countries. There is a positive and statistically significant relationship between interest rates and inflation uncertainty for six of the G7 and 18 of the developing countries and this relationship is negative for seven developing countries.     

What is the joint effect of employee satisfaction and customer orientation on the organizational culture in metalworking manufacturing?

It is a known fact that culture is an important element for the organizations. In this context, a research has been carried out in which the main subject is about to investigate the organizational culture depending on the factors of employee satisfaction and customer orientation in metalworking manufacturing firms. To perform the study, we constructed an original model and conducted research with 578 employees of metalworking organizations. After the data analysis, we determined that organizational culture has positive-significant correlation with employee satisfaction and customer orientation (at the 0.000 level). Additionally, the total explained variance of organizational culture – depending on employee satisfaction and customer orientation – has come out as a satisfying value (0.53). According to the results of our research, we are able to conclude that employee satisfaction and customer orientation has a mid-level effect on creating a substantial organizational culture.     

An interest-rate-spread-based measure of Turkish monetary policy

A coherent method to measure the effectiveness of a monetary policy improves the monetary authority’s management capacity and renders the possibility of applying sound policies prior to and during a crisis. The trend in employing complicated and ambiguity-bearing unconventional monetary tools in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis has increased the value of such a method. The aim of this article is to introduce a coherent and consistent monetary policy evaluation method for Turkey. Accordingly, we suggest that innovations in the spread between overnight interest rates and Treasury auction interest rates are informative for exchange rate, output, and prices. Empirical evidence for this identification reveals that positive innovation in spread (implying a tight monetary policy measure) decreases output temporarily, permanently decreases prices, and appreciates local currency. This result is also robust to alternative specifications.     

Identifying Non‐Adopter Consumer Segments: An Empirical Study on Earthquake Insurance Adoption in Turkey

In recent years, steadily climbing natural disaster losses have increased the need to promote new financial risk transfer mechanisms, including insurance, as a mitigation tool to build resilient communities to recover faster after disaster occurrence. However, while the societal need for such policies is high, demand for natural disaster insurance typically is still low. While there is ample research on positive adoption decisions, reasons for non‐adoption has not yet received the attention it deserves. Using the case of earthquake insurance in Turkey, this study investigates how public policy makers and insurance companies can differentiate non‐adopter segments and consequently develop targeted strategies to stimulate the uptake of disaster insurance. Our study develops a non‐adopter typology consisting of four segments—state reliant positivist, dependers, adversaries, and uninformed loners. Differences among segments provide policy makers and insurance companies with meaningful insights to design and consequently introduce affordable natural disaster insurance to the market.     

Commitment-based HR practices,different types of innovation activities and firm innovation performance

Research on human resource (HR) practices and innovation has increased in the strategic HR management literature over the last decades. Scholars suggest that commitment-based HR practices contribute to innovation performance of the firm. However, prior research puts little emphasis on the causal linkages among commitment-based HR practices, different types of innovation activities and firm innovation performance. This article opens the black box of the relationship between HR management and firm performance by examining the causal relationships among a bundle of commitment-based HR practices (i.e. a commitment-based HR system), different types of innovation activities and firm innovation performance. On the basis of a survey of 103 Turkish firms, empirical results show that a commitment-based HR system has a positive effect on process, organizational and marketing innovation activities. Furthermore, a commitment-based HR system mainly affects organizational innovation activities and shows that these innovation activities are the core drivers of process and marketing innovation activities, leading to higher rate of product innovation activities. Subsequently, product innovation activities enhance firm innovation performance, emphasizing their determinant role.