Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing

I show that investment in housing plays a crucial role in explainingthe patterns of cross-sectional variation in the compositionof wealth and the level of stockholdings observed in portfoliocomposition data. Due to investment in housing, younger andpoorer investors have limited financial wealth to invest instocks, which reduces the benefits of equity market participation.House price risk crowds out stockholdings, and this crowdingout effect is larger for low financial net-worth. In the modelas in the data leverage is positively correlated with stockholdings.     

Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle

This article solves a realistically calibrated life cycle modelof consumption and portfolio choice with non-tradable laborincome and borrowing constraints. Since labor income substitutesfor riskless asset holdings, the optimal share invested in equitiesis roughly decreasing over life. We compute a measure of theimportance of human capital for investment behavior. We findthat ignoring labor income generates large utility costs, whilethe cost of ignoring only its risk is an order of magnitudesmaller, except when we allow for a disastrous labor incomeshock. Moreover, we study the implications of introducing endogenousborrowing constraints in this incomplete-markets setting.     

Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor

This paper solves numerically the intertemporalconsumption and portfolio choiceproblem of an infinitely-lived investor whofaces a time-varying equity premium.The solutions we obtain are very similarto the approximate analytical solutionsof Campbell and Viceira (1999), except atthe upper extreme of the state spacewhere both the numerical consumption andportfolio rules flatten out.We also consider a constrained version ofthe problem in which the investor facesborrowing and short-sales restrictions.These constraints bind when the equitypremium moves away from its mean in eitherdirection, and are particularly severe forrisk-tolerant investors. The constraints havesubstantial effects on optimalconsumption, but much more modest effects onoptimal portfolio choice in theregion of the state space where they are notbinding.     

Longevity risk, retirement savings, and financial innovation

Over the last couple of decades unprecedented increases in life expectancy have raised important concerns for retirement savings. We solve a life-cycle model with longevity risk, which can be hedged through endogenous saving and retirement decisions. We investigate the benefits of financial assets designed to hedge the shocks to survival probabilities. When longevity risk is calibrated to match forward-looking projections, those benefits are substantial. This lends support to the idea that such hedging should be pursued by defined benefit pension plans on behalf of their beneficiaries. Finally, we draw implications for optimal security design.     

Using an artificial financial market for studying a cryptocurrency market

This paper presents an agent-based artificial cryptocurrency market in which heterogeneous agents buy or sell cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoins. In this market, there are two typologies of agents, Random Traders and Chartists, which interact with each other by trading Bitcoins. Each agent is initially endowed with a finite amount of crypto and/or fiat cash and issues buy and sell orders, according to her strategy and resources. The number of Bitcoins increases over time with a rate proportional to the real one, even if the mining process is not explicitly modelled. The model proposed is able to reproduce some of the real statistical properties of the price returns observed in the Bitcoin real market. In particular, it is able to reproduce the unit root property, the fat tail phenomenon and the volatility clustering. The simulator has been implemented using object-oriented technology, and could be considered a valid starting point to study and analyse the cryptocurrency market and its future evolutions.     

Defined Benefit or Defined Contribution? A Study of Pension Choices

We solve an empirically parameterized life‐cycle model of consumption and pension choices to show how expected earnings growth and risk affect the benefits of final‐salary defined benefit (DB) pension plans, relative to pension plans that are defined contribution (DC) in nature. We use micro data on the pension choices of individuals to provide evidence consistent with the model predictions: (1) individuals who expect a higher growth rate of earnings are more likely to choose DB final‐salary schemes, and (2) individuals who face a higher variance of persistent income shocks are less likely to choose DB final‐salary schemes. We control for cohort and age fixed effects in the empirical analysis.     

New data collection modes for surveys: a comparative analysis of the influence of survey mode on question-wording effects

New opportunities have recently emerged in survey practice, coupled with a need to make changes, and alternative survey data collection modes such as those based on new technologies (for example, the Web and mobile phones) have become a focus of interest. Studies have considered the biases due to data collection modes and to the wording of questions in questionnaires, but they have rarely dealt with the interaction between the two phenomena. This paper presents the results of a study on the interactions between some of the best-known question-wording effects and three data collection modes: face-to-face, Web-based and SMS-based (Short Text Messaging). The results have highlighted some interesting characteristics of the various modes—innovative ones in particular—and have confirmed the existence of potential interactions between data collection modes and question-wording effects. The findings may have significant implications for the study and practice of surveys and entail that, when surveys are designed, account is taken of specific factors associated with the method used to word the questions in questionnaires.     

Financial Incentives and Salesperson Time Orientation in New Product Launch: A Longitudinal Study

The success of a new product launch critically depends on an engaged and dedicated sales force. Salespeople who are involved in a new product launch must overcome significant uncertainty associated with the new product's performance, which can affect success expectations and, in turn, sales effort for the new product. Moreover, success expectations may drop in the first few months of the launch period, due to initial negative market feedback or general decline in sales force enthusiasm. Diminished expectations may start a vicious circle effect where lower success expectations for the new product lead to lower sales effort that, in turn, leads to lower performance, which further lowers expectations, and so on. Based on insights from attribution‐expectancy theory, this study investigates two distinct mechanisms to counteract the potential downward spiral in success expectations and sales effort devoted to a new product. Specifically, this research examines the role of financial incentives and salespersons' long‐term orientation in creating and maintaining high new product success expectations and sales effort during a new product launch. To investigate how the effect of these factors changes over time, success expectations and sales effort are examined across two critical points in time: the start of a new product launch and at completion of the first sales cycle. To test the model empirically, the North American sales force (n = 129) of a business unit of a global firm is surveyed longitudinally during the launch of a new line of industrial products. The data are analyzed using a partial least squares model. The results show that initial success expectations have a significant effect on sales effort later in the launch, and that this relationship is mediated by success expectations later in the launch. Success expectations and sales effort early in the launch are also shown to impact the perceived attractiveness of the financial incentives offered, but this does not translate into higher success expectations or sales effort at the end of the launch. In contrast, the long‐term orientation of salespersons is key to maintaining higher success expectations and sales effort at the end of the launch.     

Lending relationships in the interbank market

We use a unique dataset to show that relationships are an important determinant of banks' ability to access interbank market liquidity. More precisely, we find that: (i) banks with a larger reserve imbalance are more likely to borrow funds from banks with whom they have a relationship, and to pay a lower interest rate than otherwise; (ii) smaller banks and banks with more non-performing loans tend to have limited access to international markets, and rely more on relationships; (iii) relationships are established between banks with less correlated liquidity shocks. These results suggest that relationships allow banks to insure liquidity risk in the presence of market frictions such as transaction and information costs. Our analysis explicitly controls for the endogeneity of bank relationships.