Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

Tax management strategies with multiple risky assets

We study the consumption-portfolio problem in a setting with capital gain taxes and multiple risky stocks to understand how short selling influences portfolio choice with a shorting-the-box restriction. Our analysis uncovers a novel trading flexibility strategy whereby, to minimize future tax-induced trading costs, the investor optimally shorts one of the stocks (or equivalently, buys put options) even when no stock has an embedded gain. Alternatively, an imperfect form of shorting the box can reduce aggregate equity exposure ex post. Given these two short selling strategies, it is common for an unconstrained investor to short some equity while a constrained investor holds a positive investment in all stocks. With no shorting, the benefit of trading separately in multiple stocks is not economically significant.     

On Mixed and Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the t-th order cumulative distribution function and the t-th order tail probability of compound mixed Poisson distributions in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. Also, some general results are derived for the evaluation of the t-th order moments of stop-loss transforms. The recursions can be applied for the exact evaluation of the probability function, distribution function, tail probability and stop-loss premium of compound mixed Poisson distributions and the corresponding mixed Poisson distributions. Several examples are also presented.     

A socio-technical framework for assessing the viability of carbon capture and storage technology

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is seen as a key technology to tackle climate change. The principal idea of CCS is to remove carbon from the flue gases arising from burning fuels for electricity generation or industrial applications and to store the carbon in geological formations to prevent it from entering the atmosphere. Policy makers in several countries are supportive of the technology, but a number of uncertainties hamper its further development and deployment. The paper makes three related contributions to the literatures on socio-technical systems and technology assessment: 1) It systematically develops an interdisciplinary framework to assess the main uncertainties of CCS innovation. These include technical, economic, financial, political and societal issues. 2) It identifies important linkages between these uncertainties. 3) It develops qualitative and quantitative indicators for assessing these uncertainties. This framework aims to help decision making on CCS by private and public actors and is designed to be applicable to a wider range of low carbon technologies. The paper is based on a systematic review of the social science literature on CCS and on insights from innovation studies, as well as on interviews about assessment of new technologies with experts from a range of organisations and sectors.     

Load Profiling: A California Application

In numerous places, events are rapidly leading to the development of regional power exchanges with visible hourly prices, which are open to purchases by "direct access" customers. Currently, the vast majority of smaller customers have meters that are not capable of recording hourly usage, so that these customers are effectively precluded from power exchange purchases. Load profiling is frequently suggested as an alternative to installation of hourly usage meters, which will allow smaller customers to participate in direct access. This article describes how direct access load profiling can be implemented, discusses the technical challenges, and reports the results of a simulation study.     

Market Imperfections, Investment Flexibility, and Default Spreads

This paper develops a structural model that determines default spreads in a setting where the debt's collateral is endogenously determined by the borrower's investment choice, and a demand variable with permanent and temporary components. We also consider the possibility that the borrower cannot commit to taking the value‐maximizing investment choice, and may, in addition, be constrained in its ability to raise external capital. Based on a model calibrated to data on office buildings and commercial mortgages, we present numerical simulations that quantify the extent to which investment flexibility, incentive problems, and credit constraints affect default spreads.     

Wholesale Demand for Fish in Greece

Inverse demand systems explain price variations as functions of quantity variations. This article presents a dynamic inverse almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model based on recent developments on cointegration techniques and error correction model. The case of fish landed at Greek seaports appears to suit this model well. The results indicate that the underlying distance function is homothetic whereas the own-quantity flexibilities suggest that the responses of price to own-quantity changes are inelastic. Finally, the results of cross-quantity uncompensated flexibilities suggest that the substitution possibilities among fish grades are rather limited. The Allais interaction intensities verified the substitutability among fish grades as well.     

The Impact of Large Changes in Asset Prices on Intra-Market Correlations in the Domestic and International Markets

We consider the impact of "large" changes in asset prices on intra-market correlations in domestic and international markets. Assuming normally distributed asset returns, we show that the absolute magnitude of the correlation, conditional on a change is greater than or equal to a given absolute size of one of the variables, is monotonically increasing in the magnitude of that absolute change. Empirical tests using domestic and international-market data support this theoretical result. These results have significant implications for portfolio management, hedging interest rate risk, tests of asset pricing models, Roll's concern with asset pricing models' explanatory power, and implementation of Value-at-Risk.     

Conditional and unconditional food demand elasticities in a dynamic multistage demand system

This paper estimates conditional and unconditional demand elasticities in a three stage analysis of consumer demand for food and non-food items in Greece. A dynamic version of the AIDS model is specified and estimated, and full system misspecification tests applied. Correction formulas for price and expenditure elasticities are used to calculate unconditional elasticities from conditional demand sub-systems. All food items rank as price inelastic. Deviations between the calculated conditional and unconditional price and expenditure elasticities are found to be significant, demonstrating the importance of correcting conditional elasticities before they can be used for policy purposes or welfare analyses.