Missing Markets and Redundant Reservoirs

This paper uses a two-sector, two-period,spatial model of groundwater usage withstochastic surface water supply to illustratethe potential for the suboptimal management ofthe timing of groundwater uses. A ``timeprofile externality' is said to exist when thetiming of groundwater extraction by one set ofusers impacts on the time profile of wateravailability to another set of users. Theexistence of the time of use externalitydepends on the presence of importantdifferences in the preferences between thecontrol and non-control sectors. It alsodepends on the absence of the markets thatwould internalise these differences. Oneimportant implication of the existence of suchexternalities is that they can inducesub-optimal insurance investments in the formof water storage capital, i.e., unnecessarysurface water reservoirs.     

Evaluation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models based on distributional comparison of simulated and historical data

We take as a starting point the existence of a joint distribution implied by different dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, all of which are potentially misspecified. Our objective is to compare “true” joint distributions with ones generated by given DSGEs. This is accomplished via comparison of the empirical joint distributions (or confidence intervals) of historical and simulated time series. The tool draws on recent advances in the theory of the bootstrap, Kolmogorov type testing, and other work on the evaluation of DSGEs, aimed at comparing the second order properties of historical and simulated time series. We begin by fixing a given model as the “benchmark” model, against which all “alternative” models are to be compared. We then test whether at least one of the alternative models provides a more “accurate” approximation to the true cumulative distribution than does the benchmark model, where accuracy is measured in terms of distributional square error. Bootstrap critical values are discussed, and an illustrative example is given, in which it is shown that alternative versions of a standard DSGE model in which calibrated parameters are allowed to vary slightly perform equally well. On the other hand, there are stark differences between models when the shocks driving the models are assigned non-plausible variances and/or distributional assumptions.     

Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models

Nine macroeconomic variables are forecast in a real-time scenario using a variety of flexible specification, fixed specification, linear, and nonlinear econometric models. All models are allowed to evolve through time, and our analysis focuses on model selection and performance. In the context of real-time forecasts, flexible specification models (including linear autoregressive models with exogenous variables and nonlinear artificial neural networks) appear to offer a useful and viable alternative to less flexible fixed specification linear models for a subset of the economic variables which we examine, particularly at forecast horizons greater than 1-step ahead. We speculate that one reason for this result is that the economy is evolving (rather slowly) over time. This feature cannot easily be captured by fixed specification linear models, however, and manifests itself in the form of evolving coefficient estimates. We also provide additional evidence supporting the claim that models which ‘win’ based on one model selection criterion (say a squared error measure) do not necessarily win when an alternative selection criterion is used (say a confusion rate measure), thus highlighting the importance of the particular cost function which is used by forecasters and ‘end-users’ to evaluate their models. A wide variety of different model selection criteria and statistical tests are used to illustrate our findings.     

Listen and learn

After making a solicitation, a lot can be gained by listening to a donor's questions. Do not simply answer the question. Consider why they asked it in the first place.     

Effects of Economic Convergence on Stock Market Returns in Major EMU Member Countries

This study updates and extends existing literature by investigating the effects of economic convergence among major European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) member countries on stock market returns in each respective nation. Main findings include: (1) long-term stability in the EMU appears to be attainable, but further integration of product and factor markets is needed to reinforce convergence of real sectors; (2) the UK can be considered a quasi EMU participant due to convergence of its key economic variables with those of formal EMU members; and (3) economic convergence appears to be an important contributing factor to returns from stock markets in the included EMU countries except Germany.     

The impact of environmental regulation on Chinese spatial development

We examine the relationship between environmental regulation and spatial development in China. Exploiting changes in national pollution standards for three industries, ammonia, paper and cement, we measure the impact of environmental regulation on industry productivity. Our results suggest that national pollution standards do not affect industry productivity, but they reallocate productivity spatially. We show that regulated industries located in developing cities increase their productivity compared to similar industries in other cities. This means that environmental regulation affects the spatial distribution of technology in China and might influence long‐term spatial development by reducing geographical disparities.     

MEASURING EFFECTS ON STOCK RETURNS OF SENTIMENT INDEXES CREATED FROM STOCK MESSAGE BOARDS

Various techniques and sources of information exist to aid investors in predicting future stock returns. However, no effective proxy for retail investors, such as stock message board users, has been established. This study provides guidelines for creating an effective proxy. The heart of such proxies is sentiment indexes, and in the past the indexes have had low predictive power. Introducing four methodological improvements for applying text classifiers and two probability measurements, we contrast eight widely applied text classifiers to stock message board data. Based on the classifier results and incorporating our new methods, the new sentiment index proves to be a significant “same‐day positive but next‐day negative” directional indicator.     

The Biodiversity Bargaining Problem

We employ cooperative bargaining theory and Nash’s ‘rational threats’ idea to cast light on the biodiversity bargaining problem. The problem of global environmental negotiations is argued to be of the nature of a bargaining problem, in which bargainers must agree on the distribution of cooperative surplus in order to move to the bargaining frontier. We discuss the importance of both efficiency (bargaining frontier) and fairness (recognition of characteristics of bargainers) in the choice of the appropriate contract. We show that the incremental cost contract, used to resolve the biodiversity bargaining problem, is of the form of an extreme point contract that fails to recognise the contributions of the South to the production of cooperative surplus. A rational response to such a contract is the use of threats of biodiversity destruction. Contracts must evince both efficiency and fairness in order to represent lasting solutions.     

Prostate cancer: a review of common underwriting problems, Part 1

Part 1 of a two-part discussion of Prostate Cancer from an underwriting perspective, covers the epidemiology and screening for prostate cancer. Included is a "Primer on Screening Tests" that discusses problems with digital rectal exam (DRE) and prostate specific antigen (PSA) as screening tests. Approaches to enhancing the use of PSA for screening including age and race specific ranging, PSA density, PSA velocity, free PSA, and complexed PSA are discussed. Arguments for and against the use of PSA for prostate cancer are presented. The widespread use of PSA testing in the insurance setting is contrasted with cautious statements concerning general use of PSA in the clinical preventive care setting. In a future issue, Part 2 will cover staging and follow-up of treated prostate cancer.     

The role of relationship quality in the stratification of vendors as perceived by customers

Companies implement preferred supplier programs to reduce their vendor relationships to a reasonable few. Consequently, vendors who do not effectively manage their customer-based relationships are strong candidates for deletion from a customer’s list of long-term suppliers. The emergence of preferred supplier programs suggests that businesses are beginning to formally recognize and reward differences between their qualified vendors. Vendor stratification is proposed as a framework for understanding the evolution of preferred vendor programs. With the growing interest in relationship marketing, a study was conducted to empirically examine the extent to which businesses use relationship quality perceptions to differentiate their qualified vendors. The findings support the notion that relationship quality is a higher-order construct that can be used as a basis for developing vendor stratification systems. The article concludes with a discussion of the managerial and research implications of the study findings. Michael J. Dorsch (Ph.D., University of Arkansas) is an associate professor of marketing at Clemson University. His research has been published in theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, theJournal of Business Research, and theJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management, among others. His research interests include issues concerning relationship marketing and marketing research methods. Scott R. Swanson (Ph.D., University of Kentucky) is an assistant professor of marketing at East Carolina University. He previously spent 9 years as a purchasing executive and his research interets include issues related to services marketing, atmospherics, and marketing ethics. His research has been published in theJournal of Business to Business Marketing, theInternational Journal of Quality and Reliability Management, AMA Educators’ Proceedings, andRetailing: Theories and Practices for Today and Tomorrow. Scott W. Kelley (D.B.A., University of Kentucky) is an associate professor of marketing. His research has been published in theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, theJournal of Retailing, theJournal of Business Research, theJournal of Advertising, and theJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management, among others. His research interests include issues concerning services marketing and marketing ethics.