Patterns of Investor-State Dispute Settlement Decisions

This paper examines the pattern of settlements, investor wins and state wins in investor-state dispute settlement cases, focusing on the impact of arbitration rules, the resources and experience of the litigants, the type of treaty breach under investigation, and the pattern of state intervention. Logistic regression results show that settlements are more likely when investors do not disclose their allegations publicly, when the host state has been involved in a greater number of past cases, and when the respondent state has a higher control-of-corruption rating. Panel awards to investors are more likely in cases of alleged direct expropriation and less likely for indirect expropriation. Panel decisions favoring the state increase with higher per capita income and rule-of-law ratings.     

Cuba,Trade Dependency and the GATT/WTO System

Cuba sought economic independence from the U.S. and its reliance on sugar exports after its 1959 revolution, but subsequently developed new dependency relationships. In the meantime, Cuba remained inside the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), despite conducting most of its trade outside it. This paper explores the political economy of Cuba’s participation in the GATT and later the World Trade Organization (WTO). Documents show that Cuba sought to use its participation to gain new markets and influence in the developing world. While Cuba has gained little economically from its participation, in recent years it has diversified its exports and trade partners, and its trade interests now align more closely with WTO rules. Economic reforms will be necessary in order for Cuba to benefit.     

Co-movement in Stock Prices in Emerging Economies: The Case of the Caricom Region

The Grand Anse Declaration of 1989 recognised the need for financial integration within the emerging economies that comprise the CARICOM region, as a way of furthering the wider process of economic integration and, indeed, economic development in that region. Using co-movement as a measure of financial integration, this paper investigates the co-movement in stock prices among the Barbados, the Jamaica and the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchanges, the three major exchanges within the CARICOM region. It also examines how integrated these exchanges are with the New York Stock Exchange. The GARCH-Copula methodology and, to a lesser extent, estimated correlation coefficients, are used to attain this objective. There appears to be co-movement in stock prices and returns within the CARICOM stock markets and significant dependence structures between the returns of the three CARICOM stock markets. However, there is considerably less evidence of integration between the CARICOM markets and the New York Stock Exchange.     

Rafting the River: A Risk Management Expert System for Dynamic Problem Solving

Commercial project management systems focus on preproject planning and after-the-fact documentation, but not on the dynamic problem solving required in day-to-day project management. Yet the need for risk-oriented management is clear. To understand and control project risks, managers must be able to identify problems as they occur, immediately assess their downstream impacts, and plan a course of action. The Advanced Risk Management System (ARMS) is a prototype system built to address the issues of identifying, analyzing, prioritizing, monitoring, and controlling project risk. ARMS uses expert systems, data base management, and hypermedia technologies to capture and classify project schedule problems, to determine their semantic impacts to future activities, and to alert appropriate project personnel in advance of problem occurrence.     

Skill Loss, Ranking of Job Applicants and the Dynamics of Unemployment

Abstract. This paper investigates the consequences of skill loss as a result of unemployment in an efficiency wage model with turnover costs and on-the-job search. Firms are unable to differentiate wages and therefore prefer to hire employed searchers or unemployed workers who have not lost human capital. It is shown that if some fundamental factor in the economy changes, this will result in a lengthy adjustment process with substantial long-run unemployment effects. Moreover, the model is capable of generating persistence, but the amount depends on the duration of the shock itself.     

Forms of Foreign Investment Liberalization and Risk in Emerging Stock Markets

I examine the effect of different forms of foreign investment liberalization on risk in emerging equity markets, including international cross-listings and closed-end country funds, and in the domestic equity market as foreign investment restrictions are eliminated. I find that in Latin American markets volatility declines significantly with different forms of foreign investment liberalization, and in Asian markets volatility does not increase significantly. Volatility is driven by domestic factors in South America, but the transmission of volatility from the United States to Mexico increases after liberalization. The market risk exposure increases in Argentina after liberalization, in Chile with an index of American Depositary Receipts, and in Thailand with greater foreign ownership, reducing the diversification benefits of these markets.     

Explaining the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns in Japan: Factors or Characteristics?

Japanese stock returns are even more closely related to their book-to-market ratios than are their U.S. counterparts, and thus provide a good setting for testing whether the return premia associated with these characteristics arise because the characteristics are proxies for covariance with priced factors. Our tests, which replicate the Daniel and Titman (1997) tests on a Japanese sample, reject the Fama and French (1993) three-factor model, but fail to reject the characteristic model.     

THE EFFECT OF INVESTMENT IN INTERORGANIZATIONAL INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN A RETAIL SUPPLY CHAIN

The primary purpose of this research was to investigate the effect of investment in information technology in a supply chain. The results of that investigation are presented by focusing on an empirically tested supply chain relationship model containing both behavioral and operational constructs. The four behavioral constructs represented in the model are relationship trust, relationship commitment, relationship dependence, and long‐term relationship orientation. The four operational constructs represented in the model are retailer investment in interorganizational information technology, perceived supplier investment in interorganizational information technology, logistics efficiency, and logistics effectiveness. Among other findings, the results of the investigation found that perceived supplier investment in interorganizational information technology has a significant and positive effect on logistics efficiency.     

Household formation by the young in the United States

"A model of household formation by the young is specified and estimated. It was found that the headship rate for the young in the United States depends on income, the cost of housing, the number of families receiving AFDC payments, the age at first marriage for females and for males, and the percentage of males enrolled in college. Household formation by the young is much more sensitive to changes in income and the price of housing than household formation by the entire adult population. The estimated results are used to examine the change in the headship rate from 1961 to 1979 and from 1979 to 1987."     

Business communities in the European confectionery sector: A U.K.-Finland comparison

This paper is based on the early stages of an international collaborative project investigating the structural changes of the confectionery sectors in Finland and the U.K. over the past two decades. An institutional perspective is used to extend conventional understandings of industries via the development of the sector concept. The network and community constructs are shown to be important devices for understanding the institutional character of a sector. Accordingly, the paper reveals the similarities and differences between the two national examples. An explanation is offered of the way domestic networks persist in both countries while contrasting community profiles are apparent.