Control of sampling risks in auditing*

Abstract. This paper systematically analyzes the factors that affect sampling risks of the two major classes of statistical estimators in auditing. It develops three approaches for identifying when a particular estimator is preferred ex ante. It also provides a simulation analysis of ex ante-ex post sampling risk differences. The paper concludes that dollar-unit sampling may be more widely used than previous research has indicated. Résumé. Cet article analyse de façon systématique les facteurs d'influence du risque échantillonnal attaché aux deux grandes catégories d'estimateurs statistiques en vérification. Trois approches sont développées afin d'identifier les circonstances où un estimateur particulier s'avère préférable ex ante. Une analyse de simulation portant sur les différences de risque échantillonnai ex ante et ex post est également présentée. Cet article conclut que la méthode d'échantillonnage en unités monétaires semble plus utilisée que ce que la recherche antérieure laisse entendre.     

Some empirical evidence on the stability of accounting error characteristics over time*

Abstract. This paper extends the analysis of previous research to provide evidence on the behavior of error characteristics over time. We find that while, in aggregate, accounting errors tend to be stable over time, the sources of these errors tend to be unstable. Thus, time series modeling of internal controls in external audits may be fruitful only at sufficiently high levels of aggregation. Résumé. Cet article élargit l'analyse contenue dans les recherches antérieures afin de fournir des preuves quant au comportement des caractéristiques des erreurs dans le temps. Nous constatons que bien qu'au total les erreurs comptables ont tendance à étre stables dans le temps, les sources de ces erreurs ont plutôt tendance à varier. Dès lors, la modélisation des séries chronologiques relatives aux contrôles internes dans le contexte de missions de vérification externe ne peut être profitable qu'à des niveaux d'agrégation suffisamment élevés.     

CEO Ownership,Stock Market Performance,and Managerial Discretion

We examine the relationship between CEO ownership and stock market performance. A strategy based on public information about managerial ownership delivers annual abnormal returns of 4% to 10%. The effect is strongest among firms with weak external governance, weak product market competition, and large managerial discretion, suggesting that CEO ownership can reverse the negative impact of weak governance. Furthermore, owner‐CEOs are value increasing: they reduce empire building and run their firms more efficiently. Overall, our findings indicate that the market does not correctly price the incentive effects of managerial ownership, suggesting interesting feedback effects between corporate finance and asset pricing.     

A note on Bayesian risk models of audit practice*

Abstract. This note identifies some new issues associated with the use of discrete Bayesian risk models in auditing. The major findings are that for sequential revision, discrete Bayesian risk models may need to be used in a different way than suggested by the professional literature, and some modifications are proposed to the CICA (1980) multiple revision risk model in order to make it more general. Résumé. L'auteur recense certaines questions nouvelles associées à l'utilisation des modèles de risques bayesiens discontinus en vérification. L'étude révèle principalement que dans le cas de l'examen séquentiel, les modèles de risque bayesiens discontinus peuvent devoir être utilisés d'une façon différente de celle que suggèrent les ouvrages spécialisés, et l'auteur propose d'apporter certaines modifications au modèle de risque à révisions multiples de l'I.C.C.A. (1980) afin d'en rendre la portée plus générale.     

Modesty May Pay!

Most noncooperative game theoretic models of international environmental agreements (IEAs) draw a pessimistic picture of the prospective of successful cooperation. In this paper, we consider the possibility that countries agree on modest instead of ambitious abatement targets. It is shown that this can be an explanation for higher participation and more successful treaties. Thus, modesty may well pay, though the first‐best optimum cannot be achieved. It is also demonstrated that our model extension makes it easier to relate the stylized model to actual negotiations.     

A note on the neutrality of internal control systems in audit practice*

Abstract. The purpose of this note is to provide empirical evidence concerning the assumption of internal controls neutrality, with respect to compliance testing, using either monetary unit sampling or physical unit selection. The results do not support the neutrality assumption. Thus, an amendment of the present professional guidelines for auditors regarding compliance testing may be warranted. Résumé. L'objectif de cette note est de fournir une évidence empirique relative à l'hypothèse de neutralité des contrôles internes en rapport avec les tests de conformité, en utilisant soit le sondage des unités monétaires ou le sondage des unités physiques. Les résultats n'appuient pas l'hypothèse de neutralité. Alors, un amendement aux guides professionnels actuels pour les vérificateurs est justifié dans le cas des tests de conformité.     

Risk‐Adjusting the Returns to Venture Capital

We adapt stochastic discount factor (SDF) valuation methods for venture capital (VC) performance evaluation. Our approach generalizes the popular Public Market Equivalent (PME) method and allows statistical inference in the presence of cross‐sectionally dependent, skewed VC payoffs. We relax SDF restrictions implicit in the PME so that the SDF can accurately reflect risk‐free rates and returns of public equity markets during the sample period. This generalized PME yields substantially different abnormal performance estimates for VC funds and start‐up investments, especially in times of strongly rising public equity markets and for investments with betas far from one.