Monitoring the foreign exchange rate benchmark fix

ABSTRACT

We develop a Manipulation Index (ManIx) that captures the potential manipulation intention of dealers during the World Markets/Reuters (WMR) benchmark (London Close) period at 4 pm London time through a unique algorithm and simulation. The application of this model (using a dataset with dealers’ identities) can identify banks that are prone to potential manipulative behavior. The results concerning the identified banks are validated by the regulatory investigations. Implementation of this algorithm allows regulators better direct their limited resources towards more targeted in-depth investigation.     

Effects of individual resources and team-member exchange on service quality

While workplace resources are generally viewed as positively affecting performance, some studies indicate that not all resources increase performance. This study addresses the controversial disparate effects of workplace resources on performance by exploring functionally classified workplace resources in self-managing service teams and their relative impacts on team service quality. Considering membership dynamics and consequences between members, a field experiment was conducted in a cafeteria, with data collected through a working diary for workplace resources and a customer survey to evaluate service quality. Results suggest that efficacy-resources in self-managing teams should be controlled with caution as they may adversely affect team service quality. Supporting the person–situation interactionism perspective, workplace resources interact dynamically with individual employees and with situations. Esteem-resources were found to increase team service quality, while team-member exchange not only improved team service quality but also moderated the impact of esteem-resources on team service quality.     

Linking performance drivers in production planning and inventory control to process choice

This study investigates how process choice relates to production planning and inventory control decisions. We empirically examine the validity of deductively derived patterns about these types of decisions. More importantly, we look for normative insights by exploring how production planning and inventory control decisions affect operations performance. Our findings show that production line and continuous flow plants use more of a level production strategy, and carry less raw material and work-in-process inventory. The performance drivers for these plants, through which the operations function excels, are effective utilization of equipment, reduced finished goods inventory, and reduced setup down time. To gain forward demand visibility and batching economies, job and batch shops rely much more on backlogs in their planning process. These plants use more of a production chase strategy and position inventory lower in the bills of materials. Four performance drivers for top-performing job and batch shops are to find ways that better anticipate customers' orders, have a more responsive chase strategy, carry less raw material or purchased inventory, and shorten production planning horizon, partly through less reliance on backlogs. It is intriguing that top-performing plants not only do the expected things, given their choice of process, but also excel in selected dimensions—some of which fit the profile normally associated with a different process choice. To monitor and continuously improve operations, evaluation ‘scorecards’ should pay particular attention to performance drivers, which change depending on the plant's process choice.     

Towards a resilience management framework for complex enterprise systems upgrade implementation

The lack of knowledge of how resilience management supports enterprise system (ES) projects accounts for the failure of firms to leverage their investments in costly ES implementations. Using a structured-pragmatic-situational (SPS) case study research approach, this paper reports on an investigation into the resilience management of a large utility company as it implemented an ES upgrade. Drawing on the literature and on the case study findings, we developed a process-based resilience management framework that involves three strategies (developing situation awareness, demystifying threats, and executing restoration plans) and four organisational capabilities that transform resilience management concepts into practices. We identified the crucial phases of ES upgrade implementation and developed indicators for how different strategies and capabilities of resilience management can assist managers at different stages of an ES upgrade. This research advances the state of existing knowledge by providing specific and verifiable propositions for attaining a state of resilience, the knowledge being grounded in the empirical reality of a case study. Moreover, the framework offers ES practitioners a roadmap to better identify appropriate responses and levels of preparedness.     

Good governance,innovation, economic growth and the stock market turnover rate

This study is primarily aimed at testing the theory of good governance in the group of eight developing Islamic countries. Using a panel data regression model, we examined the data to determine the relationship between political economy and economic development of eight countries, for the period 2005 to 2014. The results show a significant positive correlation between the rule of law, corruption control with economic growth and stock market turnover rate proxy. The examination through an artificial neural network resulted in a higher determination coefficient and less average standard error. This, in turn, reveals that the fitting power and efficiency of this method is higher than the panel data regression model. Furthermore, the findings of this study suggest that the application of good governance theory calls for more inquiry.     

Bayesian and Bühlmann credibility for phase-type distributions with a univariate risk parameter

Credibility theory is a statistical tool to calculate the premium for the next period based on past claims experience and the manual rate. Each contract is characterized by a risk parameter. A phase-type (or PH) random variable, which is defined as the time until absorption in a continuous-time Markov chain, is fully characterized by two sets of parameters from that Markov chain: the initial probability vector and transition intensity matrix. In this article, we identify an interpretable univariate risk parameter from amongst the many candidate parameters, by means of uniformization. The resulting density form is then expressed as an infinite mixture of Erlang distributions. These results are used to obtain a tractable likelihood function by a recursive formula. Then the best estimator for the next premium, i.e. the Bayesian premium, as well as its approximation by the Bühlmann credibility premium are calculated. Finally, actuarial calculations for the Bühlmann and Bayesian premiums are investigated in the context of a gamma prior, and illustrated by simulated data in a series of examples.     

The reaction of emerging market credit default swap spreads to sovereign credit rating changes

This paper examines the effect of sovereign credit rating change announcements on the CDS spreads of the event countries, and their spillover effects on other emerging economies’ CDS premiums. We find that positive events have a greater impact on CDS markets in the two-day period surrounding the event, and are more likely to spill over to other emerging countries. Alternatively, CDS markets anticipate negative events, and previous changes in CDS premiums can be used to estimate the probability of a negative credit event. The transmission mechanisms for positive events are the common creditor and competition in trade markets.     

Return generating processes of long-term bonds and measurement of risk: Theory and empirical tests

Using a continuous-time framework, Kazemi (1992) shows that changes in prices of long-term bonds could be perfectly correlated with changes in the representative investor's marginal utility of wealth. Therefore, the equilibrium expected excess return on any security would be proportional to its covariance with changes in prices of long-term bonds. The present paper first extends the above result to a discrete time framework and shows that there are significant differences between the continuous time and discrete time versions of the model. Second, we test an empirical implication of this result; the evidence supports the theoretical model.     

Labor supply responses to marginal Social Security benefits: Evidence from discontinuities

A key question for Social Security reform is whether workers respond to the link on the margin between the Social Security taxes they pay and the Social Security benefits they will receive. We estimate the effects of the marginal Social Security benefits that accrue with additional earnings on three measures of labor supply: retirement age, hours, and labor earnings. We develop a new approach to identifying these incentive effects by exploiting five provisions in the Social Security benefit rules that generate discontinuities in marginal benefits or non-linearities in marginal benefits that converge to discontinuities as uncertainty about the future is resolved. We find that individuals approaching retirement (age 52 and older) respond to the Social Security tax-benefit link on the extensive margin of their labor supply decisions: we estimate that a 10% increase in the net-of-tax share reduces the two-year retirement hazard by a statistically significant 2.0 percentage points from a base rate of 15%. The evidence with regard to labor supply responses on the intensive margin is more mixed: we estimate that the elasticity of hours with respect to the net-of-tax share is 0.42 and statistically significant, but we do not find a statistically significant earnings elasticity. Though we lack statistical power to estimate results within subsamples precisely, the retirement response is driven mostly by the female subsample, while the hours response comes from the male subsample.     

What labelling policy for consumer choice? The case of genetically modified food in Canada and Europe

Abstract. Faced with divergent opinions among consumers on the use of genetically modified (GM) foods, Canada has adopted a voluntary labelling approach for non‐GM foods, whereas the European Union has a mandatory labelling policy for GM foods. Interestingly, both labelling systems have resulted in very little, if any, additional consumer choice. Using an analytical model, we show that the coexistence of GM and non‐GM products at the retail level depends on the labelling policy, consumer perceptions, and the type of product. Although voluntary labelling tends to favour the use of GM products, it is more likely to provide consumer choice.