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This article assesses the interaction between inflation and inflation uncertainty in a dynamic framework for Turkey by using
monthly data for the time period 1984–2009. The bulk of previous studies investigating the link between inflation and inflation
uncertainty employ Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH)-type models, which consider inflation uncertainty
as a predetermined function of innovations to inflation specification. The stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) models that
we use allow for gathering innovations to inflation uncertainty and assess the effect of inflation volatility shocks on inflation
over time. When we assess the interaction between inflation and its volatility, the empirical findings indicate that response
of inflation to inflation volatility is positive and statistically significant. However, the response of inflation volatility
to inflation is negative but not statistically significant. 相似文献
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Julide Yazar 《Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination》2006,1(2):171-187
Many cases of strategic interaction between agents involve a continuous set of choices. It is natural to model these problems as continuous space games. Consequently, the population of agents playing the game will be represented with a density function defined over the continuous set of strategy choices. Simulating evolutionary dynamics on continuous strategy spaces is a challenging problem. The classic approach of discretizing the strategy space is ineffective for multidimensional strategy spaces. We present a principled approach to simulation of adaptive dynamics in continuous space games using sequential Monte Carlo methods. Sequential Monte Carlo methods use a set of weighted random samples, also named particles to represent density functions over multidimensional spaces. Sequential Monte Carlo methods provide computationally efficient ways of computing the evolution of probability density functions. We employ resampling and smoothing steps to prevent particle degeneration problem associated with particle estimates. The resulting algorithm can be interpreted as an agent based simulation with elements of natural selection, regression to mean and mutation. We illustrate the performance of the proposed simulation technique using two examples: continuous version of the repeated prisoner dilemma game and evolution of bidding functions in first-price closed-bid auctions. 相似文献
3.
The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper investigates the effect of inflation uncertainty innovations on inflation over time by considering the monthly United States data for the time period 1976–2006. In order to investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty innovation on inflation, a Stochastic Volatility in Mean model (SVM) has been employed. SVM models are generally used to capture the innovation to inflation uncertainty, which cannot be achieved in the framework of popular deterministic ARCH type of models. Empirical evidence provided here suggests that innovations in inflation volatility increases inflation persistently. This evidence is robust across various definitions of inflation and different sub-periods. 相似文献
4.
Jülide Yazar 《Economic Theory》2001,18(2):439-450
Summary. In this paper we introduce a new model of ex ante contracting for economies with asymmetric information to examine endogenously determined communication plans for information
sharing in the interim stage. In contrast to the models used in previous research, in the present model agents negotiate not only on a contract
of state contingent allocations but also on a communication plan, a set of rules describing how agents will reveal part of
their private information at the interim stage to execute the trade contracts. We prove a result about the nested structure of the set of allocations implementable
by various communication plans and establish the existence of core strategies for this cooperative game under various regularity
conditions.
Received: 4 March 1998; revised version: 17 September 1999 相似文献
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Despite poverty alleviation efforts, almost a quarter of households live below the poverty line in Turkey. This article aims to examine the dynamics of poverty focusing on poverty persistence in Turkey, utilizing Income and Living Conditions panel data belonging to 2010–2013. A random effects dynamic panel probit model has been employed. In order to tackle the initial values problem Heckman’s reduced form approximation is utilized. Empirical results indicate that gender, educational attainment, employment type, and household structure have statistically significant impact on the probability of being poor. Besides, experiencing poverty has a positive impact on future poverty likelihood, signalling state dependence. 相似文献
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This study explores the association of labor force and social assistance program participation decisions in Turkey by employing the 2011 household budget survey (HBS) data. The issue is investigated in a bivariate probit framework, where the two incidences are jointly modeled. The differences in rural and urban behavior are also explored. Empirical results indicate that the more one works, the less one participates in social transfer program, and vice versa. Additionally, age, gender, household type and composition impact decision-making process of individuals both in urban and rural areas. The negative association between labor force participation and social transfer program participation is more pronounced in urban areas compared with the rural areas. 相似文献
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