我国农村剩余劳动力转移途径及对策选择

我国农村剩余劳动力转移是解决三农问题的重中之重.现行土地制度、户籍管理制度、城市化进程以及农村剩余劳动力素质是制约农村剩余劳动力转移的主要因素.农村剩余劳动力在第一产业内部的转移和劳动力向二、三产业的转移,是我国农村劳动力转移的基本途径.坚持走农业产业化道路、推进乡镇企业二次创业、完善农村金融体系、推进城市化进程、建立和完善社会保障体系等,是推动农村劳动力转移的必然选择.     

经济增长视角下的中国劳动力数量与结构变化

我国劳动年龄人口（15-59岁）已经在2012年呈现负增长,劳动力（20-59岁）数量也将从2016年开始下降,2022年开始,我国劳动力数量则会快速下降。目前劳动供给紧平衡,农村向城镇转移劳动力速度放缓,工资快速上涨,求人倍率连续三年大于1。伴随我国劳动力数量下降,劳动市场将供小于求,影响我国经济增长。文章建议,一方面要提高劳动参与率,降低经济对劳动力数量的依赖,另一方面要提高劳动效率,采取有效措施促进农村就业人口向城镇转移,减少结构性就业矛盾。     

社会养老保险“多轨制”与家庭股票市场参与

依据中国家庭金融调查数据,运用Probit模型和Tobit模型,考量社会养老保险“多轨制”对家庭股票市场参与的影响。结果显示：社会养老保险“多轨制”通过缓解收入风险、健康风险与风险厌恶程度等,影响家庭股票市场参与;家庭净资产水平和信任水平异质性,影响家庭股票市场参与差异。其中,参加企职保或机关事业单位养老保险促进家庭股票市场参与显著,参加城乡居保影响不显著。鉴于此,应进一步整合社会养老保险“多轨制”,提高城乡居保的养老保障水平,充分发挥社会养老保险对家庭股票市场参与的促进作用。     

共同富裕目标下农业社会化服务对城乡收入差距的影响——兼论农村劳动力转移与人力资本的门槛效应

通过分析农业社会化服务发展水平对城乡居民收入差距的影响机理，并利用2011—2020年省级面板数据进行实证检验。结果发现：农业社会化服务发展水平对城乡收入差距的影响呈先缩小后扩大的“U”形趋势，且农业社会化服务对农村居民收入的提升效果大于其对城镇居民收入的影响；农业社会化服务发展水平对城乡收入差距的影响存在门槛效应；农村劳动力转移越多、农村人力资本水平越高，农业社会化服务对城乡收入差距缩小的作用效应越明显。把全国样本分成粮食主产区、粮食主销区和粮食产销平衡区三部分进行区域异质性检验，结果显示，农业社会化服务发展也有利于城乡收入差距的缩小。基于此，应在大力发展农业社会化服务水平的基础上，通过加快农村劳动力转移和提升农村人力资本水平等方式强化农业社会化服务缩小城乡收入差距的作用，进而实现共同富裕。     

贵州省工业强省战略下农村劳动力转移规模预测

2010年贵州省实施工业强省战略,解决农村劳动力转移问题是工业强省战略的主要作用之一.本文主要探讨两个问题,一是贵州省目前农村剩余劳动力的数量;二是贵州工业强省战略能够带来多大的农村劳动力转移.本文通过采集贵州省相关数据结合贵州省工业强省战略规划对上述问题进行了解答.在探讨上述问题的基础上,结合国际劳动力转移经验,本文总结了农村劳动力转移的一般规律,并认为我国在农村劳动力转移中存在转移滞后的问题,同时提出了通过承接产业转移的方式加快贵州省的农村劳动力转移,并且以贵州为例可以推及西部地区的劳动力转移问题.     

城乡统筹发展的理论梳理和深入探讨

无论是马克思主义还是西方新古典主义或者发展经济学都从不同层面上深入探讨了城乡统筹的本质和关键内容。统筹城乡经济社会发展必须深入研究造成中国二元经济结构的一般和特殊性问题。总结中国城乡发展失衡的内在机理,除了中国特色的工业化道路诱致和加剧了城乡二元结构的产生,一系列配套政策的实施则固化了二元结构的现状。中国二元经济结构的转变,不仅要实现农业剩余劳动力的转移,而且必须全面解决“三农”问题以及城市与乡村、经济和社会的协调发展问题。     

城市化对于中国居民收入不均的影响

本篇论文重新定义了城市化和中国人口收入不均的关系,以中国居民的收入不均变化是否遵循着库兹涅茨倒U型曲线为切入点。根据本文的研究,尽管中国城市地区和农村地区收入不均的变化没有遵循库兹涅茨的倒U型假说,但是中国总的收入不均变化遵循了这一假说。中国总体收入不均遵循倒U假说的主要原因就是：由城市化导致的收入不均已经在近十年来进入下降的阶段,从而使得中国总体收入不均水平也在下降或使其加速缓慢。在未来,对于总体收入不均水平的下降,两项政策将刻不容缓：一方面,限制劳动力流动的户籍制度必须打破,从而使城市化加快;另一方面,农村居民的收入必须尽快提高,从而使城乡差距缩小。     

对我国农村劳动力转移就业的思考

本回顾了我国农村劳动力转移就业的历史，指出了目前及今后一段时期里，农村劳动力转移就业所面临的困境，最后阐述了走出困境的几点想法。     

中国养老保险制度改革的政策选择——老龄化、城市化、全球化的视角

中国的养老保险制度改革不仅要考虑到人口老龄化的挑战,还需看到经济全球化提出的要求,以及城市化带来的机遇。本文基于详实的数据和深入的前期研究,指出中国的养老保险制度改革仍然具有一些独特的空间,包括老年劳动参与的提高,劳动生产率的提升,养老保险覆盖面的扩大,保险基金投资回报率的提高等。中国的老龄化发生在经济发展水平相对较低的阶段,在经济全球化时代,需要权衡缴费率和国际竞争力之间的矛盾。与人口老龄化相伴随的是城市化,将农村转移劳动力纳入城镇社会保障体系可以在较长时间内改变体系的负担率,同时农村老年人口绝对数量的下降,也可为政府补贴增长提供条件。长期而言,老龄化社会的养老能力根本上取决于劳动生产率的不断提高。     

Female labor force participation: an international perspective.

This article gives an international perspective in regard to female participation in the labor force. In most countries women contribute less than men toward the value of recorded production. Social environment, statistical inconsistencies and methods of recording labor all contribute to this inequity. In Britain for instance, women caring for the household duties are in some studies considered to be part of the labor force and in other studies they are not. Further, internationally, women often find themselves in casual, temporary, or seasonal work that goes unrecorded. Defining what "labor force participation" constitutes is a key starting point to any survey. At what age is one considered employable? What constitutes a person "actively seeking" employment? Economists often try to explain labor force participation rate by age, sex, race and income groups and use this information to cite trends. The income-leisure model theorizes that choice of work or non-work by women is based primarily upon wages for work vs. wages for non-work. This theory sees non-labor income exerting a negative influence. Empirical evidence, however, suggests that women will choose work if wages are good regardless of any non-work benefits. Because most men are permanently in the labor force, estimates of labor reserves and projections of supply focus mostly on women. International generalizations are often misleading since trends vary widely among countries. During the last 20 years the global female participation rate has remained almost constant, but this is misleading. The percentage of working women in industrial countries increased 10%; developing countries showed a decrease of 7%. Female rates are often tied closely to shifts in the overall economy, (e.g., a transition from an agricultural to an industrial economy often sees a drop in female labor because subsistence jobs are lost). Of course the ability of women to bear children and the social expectations regarding child care often play a role. It is common in western industrialized countries to see drops in female participation during childbearing years. Countries with the lowest female participation rates are those with strong religious views about women in society, (e.g., Catholic and Muslim countries).     

社会保障对收入分配差距的调节效应——基于陕西省宝鸡市住户调查数据的实证研究

社会保障具有重要的收入再分配功能,在很多国家社会保障都是调节居民收入分配差距最重要的手段。本文对陕西省宝鸡市住户调查数据的实证研究表明,社会保障转移性收入缩小了居民收入分配差距,使城乡居民收入的基尼系数下降了4.5%,其中城镇居民基尼系数下降22.8%,农村居民基尼系数下降1.82%。但由于农村居民获得的社会保障转移性收入远远低于城镇居民,从而导致城乡收入差距上升23.17%。为抑制收入分配差距的进一步扩大,中国应重视社会保障对收入分配的调节作用,进一步增加社会保障的财政投入。尤其要加大对农村社会保障的财政投入,尽快扭转社会保障对城乡收入差距的逆向调节。     

我国农村社会养老保险覆盖率的实证考察与政策建议

基于2003年～2010年相关数据,运用社会养老保险制度覆盖率计算公式,对农村社会养老保险覆盖率从纵向和横向(城乡差异)进行实证比较分析,指出制度模式、农民的收入水平、制度保障水平、城镇社会养老保险的历史债务以及社会养老保险关系转移的便捷性等问题是造成"新农保"覆盖率较低的重要原因,并从加快制度推进、提供多种制度模式、增加农民收入、提高制度保障水平以及以家庭为参保单位等方面,提出了政策建议。     

统筹城乡基本养老保险制度的路径选择——以安徽省芜湖市为例

作为＂老有所养＂支柱的基本养老保险制度的城乡统筹是城乡社会保障一体化的核心目标之一。由于各试点地区的具体做法不尽一致,这就决定了各地城乡基本养老保险制度的统筹方式会有所差异。以社会保障创新机制比较完善的芜湖市为例,其统筹城乡基本养老保险制度的路径对其他地区应该会产生示范效应,从而降低制度摸索、转轨的成本。     

新型农村社会养老保险的制度缺陷与对策探讨——以河南省长葛市官亭乡的实地调查为例

新型农村社会养老保险制度是一项旨在促进社会公平、协调发展的战略性政策,对于缩小城乡差距、化解农村社会各种矛盾、实现全面小康和构建和谐社会具有深远的意义。对河南省长葛市官亭乡农村养老保险开展的现状调查显示,这项惠及数亿农村人口的政策,无论是制度设计本身还是制度的运行都存在一些亟待解决的问题,本文认为,推动制度设计本身的完善和建立相关配套措施是解决新农保制度缺陷问题、推广农村养老保险工作的关键所在。     

通过用税权的调控逐步缩小“城乡差距”

目前中国"二元"社会结构下的城乡差距或区域财富分布严重失衡,是由于我国长期实行的"城乡分治"和"城市偏向"的二元社会制度使然,深层原因即财政取向和使用的不平衡。为了缩小"城乡差距",理应着重用税权的规范和控制,并采取如下措施,调整预算编制对农村支出的比重,加大中央对农村转移支付力度,实现纵向和横向转移支付并重。     

统筹城乡发展中的农地金融问题探析

改革开放以来掀起的农村金融体制改革和以土地家庭联产承包经营制为主要内容的农村土地制度改革,对促进我国农业、农村和农民的发展功不可没,但也存在一些制约城乡一体化建设的问题。在统筹城乡发展过程中,一方面要深化农村金融体制改革,构建多元化农村金融体系,加快农地制度改革,健全农地经营权流转体系;另一方面还应将农村土地制度与农村金融制度二者的改革与创新相互结合、相互统一,发展农地金融业务,积极探索具有创新意义的地票交易、农地承包权证券化等多样化农地金融产品。     

Heterogeneous Background Risks and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from Micro‐level Data

We construct a set of household‐level background risk variables to capture the covariance structure of three nonfinancial assets and two financial assets. These risks are in general statistically significant and economically important for a household's stock market participation and stockholdings. A one‐standard‐deviation increase in background risks reduces the participation probability by 11% and the stockholdings‐to‐wealth ratio by 4%. The volatilities of labor income, housing value, and business income reduce a household's participation and stockholdings. A household with labor income highly correlated with stock (bond) returns is less (more) likely to invest in stock.     

Mental Health Patterns and Consequences: Results from Survey Data in Five Developing Countries

The social and economic consequences of poor mental health inthe developing world are presumed to be significant, yet remainunderresearched. This study uses data from nationally representativesurveys in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Indonesia, and Mexico andfrom special surveys in India and Tonga to show similar patternsof association between mental health and socioeconomic characteristics.Individuals who are older, female, widowed, and report poorphysical health are more likely to report worse mental health.Individuals living with others with poor mental health are alsosignificantly more likely to report worse mental health themselves.In contrast, there is little observed relation between mentalhealth and consumption poverty or education, two common measuresof socioeconomic status. Indeed, the results here suggest insteadthat economic and multidimensional shocks, such as illness orcrisis, can have a greater impact on mental health than poverty.This may have important implications for social protection policy.Also significant, the associations between poor mental healthand lower labor force participation (especially for women) andmore frequent visits to health centers suggest that poor mentalhealth can have economic consequences for households and thehealth system. Mental health modules could usefully be addedto multipurpose household surveys in developing countries. Finally,measures of mental health appear distinct from general subjectivemeasures of welfare such as happiness.     

农村劳动力供给问题研究——以泰州市为例

随着泰州市经济发展及城市化建设的步伐,劳动力市场对劳动力的需求增加,但由于生产条件、生态环境及人口素质的差异,客观上形成了局部农村劳动力赋闲与劳动力市场供不应求并存的现象,因此,本文探讨泰州市农村劳动力供给情况,结合劳动力转移进城实际障碍,分别从劳动力素质、政府职能、权益保障方面提出农村劳动力转移的对策建议.     

Would Smog Lead to Outflow of Labor Force? Empirical Evidence from China

This study examines the impact of air pollution on labor outflow and labor migration from the perspective of individual and regional heterogeneity in China. The empirical evidence shows that air pollution has a significant impact on labor outflow and labor with higher education levels, of male gender, and belonging to a younger cohort are more sensitive toward air pollution and hence more inclined to migrate. The labor force from cities and rural areas, as well as from eastern and central China, tends to migrate due to the negative impact of air pollution. The labor force in areas of north of the Huai River is more likely to migrate due to the severe air pollution caused mainly by heating systems in the winter.