Killing off cohorts: Forecasting mortality of non-extinct cohorts with the penalized composite link model

Mortality forecasting has crucial implications for insurance and pension policies. A large amount of literature has proposed models to forecast mortality using cross-sectional (period) data instead of longitudinal (cohort) data. As a consequence, decisions are generally based on period life tables and summary measures such as period life expectancy, which reflect hypothetical mortality rather than the mortality actually experienced by a cohort. This study introduces a novel method to forecast cohort mortality and the cohort life expectancy of non-extinct cohorts. The intent is to complete the mortality profile of cohorts born up to 1960. The proposed method is based on the penalized composite link model for ungrouping data. The performance of the method is investigated using cohort mortality data retrieved from the Human Mortality Database for England & Wales, Sweden, and Switzerland for male and female populations.     

Market Structure and Risk Taking in the Banking Industry

We demonstrate that the common view according to which an increase in competition leads banks to increased risk taking fails to hold in an environment where homogeneous loss averse consumers can choose in which bank to make a deposit based on their knowledge of the riskiness incorporated in the banks outstanding loan portfolios. With an exclusive focus on imperfect competition we find that banks incentives for risk taking are invariant to a change in the banking market structure from duopoly to monopoly. Finally, we show that deposit insurance would eliminate the gains from bank competition when banks use asset quality as a strategic instrument.revised version received October 15, 2003     

Dancing to the Donors' Tune? Policy Choice in Aid‐Dependent Countries

Current aid rhetoric emphasizes the selective allocation of otherwise unconditional funds in support of the recipients' own plans, in contrast to the old donor practice of bundling money and policies. I show that when recipients have private information, policies reflecting their preferences and knowledge might result in such a regime. However, generous transfers can also induce them to conform to the outcome‐oriented expectations of donors at the expense of lower aid impact. Such behaviour is consistent with an abundance of case‐study evidence. Moderate disagreements over what the optimal policy is could actually produce better results. Certain forms of both donor competition and coordination might also eliminate this distortion, while a donor concern for need only removes incentives for aid‐seeking in the least needy countries. In summary, optimal aid policies are highly context‐specific, and donors should thus concentrate their efforts to practise more informed selectivity.     

The combined impact of managerial and relational capabilities on innovation in firms

In this paper, a survey of more than 1600 firms in the five largest city regions of Norway is described in order to examine how a firm's innovative capacity is affected by three types of factors: factors related to the manager, the structure of the firm and the broader geographical location. By combining perspectives from the fields of management and economic geography in a logistic regression analysis, we find that the two key drivers of firm-level innovation in Norway are the presence of open-minded managers and evidence of collaboration with international partners. Moreover, these two factors are mutually reinforcing, as firms with open-minded managers also tend to engage more with international partners and vice versa.     

History-based price discrimination and entry in markets with switching costs: A welfare analysis

We analyze history-based price discrimination in an asymmetric industry, where an incumbent, protected by switching costs, faces an entrant who does not have access to information about consumers’ purchase histories. We demonstrate that consumer surplus is higher with uniform pricing than with history-based price discrimination. We find that the entry decision is invariant to whether the incumbent implements history-based pricing or uniform pricing. This implies that the potential abuse of market dominance imposed by history-based price discrimination is exploitation, not exclusion. Finally, we establish that the profit gain to the incumbent from history-based pricing exceeds the associated loss to consumers.     

Pyrrhic victories – anticipating the closedown effect

Previous studies with empirical evidence on social responsible driven closedowns have identified a productivity increase effect that occurs during the process of organizational closedowns, known as the closedown effect. Our proposition is that this effect can be anticipated as a consequence of a closedown decision. Encountering four different non social responsible closedown cases, of various durations, we statistically test this proposition. Further, we identify a need for an analytical distinction of the phases of the closedown process, in terms of the primary ‘advanced notice period’ and the secondary ‘countdown period’. Based on the analysis, and with this distinction, we are able to conclude that the productivity increase effect can be anticipated during the countdown period. The comparably longer time frame in the Studding case provides the strongest support for our proposition. From the analysis we suggest hypotheses for further research.     

Reducing income transfers to refugee immigrants: Does start-help help you start?

We estimate the effect of lowering income transfers to refugee immigrants in Denmark – labeled start-help – using a competing risk framework. Refugee immigrants obtaining residence permit before July 2002 received larger income transfers than those who obtained their residence permit later. Exploiting this ‘quasi-natural’ experiment, we find that the lower income transfer has a positive effect on the job-finding rate after two years in Denmark. We also find that the exit rate from the labour force is positively affected by start-help during the early phases of the integration process. Finally, we find that those with the poorest labour market prospects are the least responsive to the improvement in economic incentives.     

Liquidity provision and optimal bank regulation

We extend the set of regulatory instruments for banks' liquidity provision by adding a policy instrument for controlling the fraction of perfectly-liquid accounts. We demonstrate how this instrument induces self-selection on behalf of depositors who are differentiated according to their probability of facing a liquidity shock. This self-selection leads to a market segmentation, which can break the bundling of deposits with liquidity risk and, thereby, enhance welfare. The optimal regulatory policy is explicitly characterized as a function of banks' investment return, and of depositors' gain from early withdrawals to fund a realized investment opportunity.     

Equilibrium unemployment with outsourcing under labour market imperfections

We study the effects of international outsourcing on equilibrium unemployment in a high-wage economy with labour market imperfections. We demonstrate, consistent with empirical results, that the wage elasticity of labour demand is increasing as a function of outsourcing. Furthermore, we show that a production mode with more outsourcing reduces the negotiated wage in a high-wage country with labour market imperfections if the relative bargaining power of the labour union is sufficiently high. Under such circumstances outsourcing reduces equilibrium unemployment. Finally, we characterize the optimal production mode showing that stronger labour market imperfections induce a production mode with more outsourcing.     

Upper Secondary School Completion and the Business Cycle

Previous evidence suggests that enrollment in post‐compulsory education increases (decreases) in cyclical downturns (upturns). However, little evidence exists on whether enrollment is successfully transformed into completed education. This paper adds to the literature by analyzing the relationship between completion of upper secondary education and regional unemployment using Norwegian regional panel data on students graduating from compulsory school between 1981 and 2004. We find robust evidence that completion rates are countercyclical. Our results suggest that poor labor‐market conditions when starting upper secondary education have a lasting effect and motivate students to stay in school and graduate.