Structural Decomposition Analysis of Physical Flows in the Economy

Many environmental problems can be attributedto the extraction and emissions of physicalsubstances. Increasing our understanding of theeconomic and technological driving forcesbehind these physical flows can contribute tosolving the environmental problems related tothem. The input-output framework is a usefulsetting in which to integrate detailedinformation about economic structure andphysical flows. In this article a specificmethod in input-output analysis is reviewed,namely Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA).It is based on comparative static analysis,which decomposes historical changes of a policyvariable into determinant effects. SDA has beenapplied, for example, to analyze the demand andtechnological driving forces of energy use,CO₂-emissions and various other pollutantsand resources. This article examines thetheoretical aspects of structuraldecomposition, in particular those concerningphysical flows and environmental issues.Furthermore, the article includes an extensivesurvey of empirical studies.     

Option-based compensation: a survey

Despite empirical research and theoretical validity, there is mixed evidence on whether employee stock options align interests between management and shareholders by turning managers into owners. What used to be a functional tool introduced in the 1950s, has gotten out of hand, as perceived by the press and popular literature. The main catalyst is the accounting treatment stock options receive. This paper provides an overview of the empirical research in the field and discusses the current accounting treatment of employee stock options and impending changes. We conclude by proposing alternative compensation tools.     

Modified efficient importance sampling for partially non‐Gaussian state space models

The construction of an importance density for partially non‐Gaussian state space models is crucial when simulation methods are used for likelihood evaluation, signal extraction, and forecasting. The method of efficient importance sampling is successful in this respect, but we show that it can be implemented in a computationally more efficient manner using standard Kalman filter and smoothing methods. Efficient importance sampling is generally applicable for a wide range of models, but it is typically a custom‐built procedure. For the class of partially non‐Gaussian state space models, we present a general method for efficient importance sampling. Our novel method makes the efficient importance sampling methodology more accessible because it does not require the computation of a (possibly) complicated density kernel that needs to be tracked for each time period. The new method is illustrated for a stochastic volatility model with a Student's t distribution.     

Decision making for business model development: a process study of effectuation and causation in new technology-based ventures

This study investigates the decision-making logics used by new ventures to develop their business models. In particular, they focussed on the logics of effectuation and causation and how their dynamics shape the development of business models over time. They found that the effectual decision-making logic was used dominantly to generate a viable value proposition for a specific customer segment. Causal logic is then used dominantly to define the other business model components in relation to the value proposition and customer segment. When a shortage of resources emerges, causal logic is replaced by an increase in effectual decision-making again. They concluded that before investing significant resources in a business model it was crucial for firms to reduce, as far as possible, technological and market uncertainty through effectual strategies to avoid high re-configuration costs later.     

Extending the BG/NBD: A simple model of purchases and complaints

Extant customer-base models like the beta geometric/negative binomial distribution (BG/NBD) predict future purchasing based on customers' observed purchase history. We extend the BG/NBD by adding an important non-transactional element that also drives future purchases: complaint history. Our model retains several desirable properties of the BG/NBD: it can be implemented in readily available software, and estimation requires only customer-specific statistics, rather than detailed transaction-sequence data. The likelihood function is closed-form, and managerially relevant metrics are obtained by drawing from beta and gamma densities and transforming these draws to a sample average. Based on more than two years of individual-level data from a major U.S. internet and catalog retailer, our model with complaints outperforms both the original BG/NBD and a modified version. Even though complaints are rare and non-transactional events, they lead to different substantive insights about customer purchasing and drop-out: customers purchase faster but also drop out much faster. Furthermore, there is more heterogeneity in drop-out rates following a purchase than a complaint.     

Transforming water infrastructure by linking water management and urban renewal in Rotterdam

Urban water systems have to deal with the impacts of climate change. In response, urban water managers in the city of Rotterdam developed a new water management strategy combining the renewal of water infrastructure with neighborhood revitalization projects. A key factor was the recognition that additional water retention in existing urban areas could only be realized if these projects were linked to urban renewal programs. Moreover, it was acknowledged that through new water retention infrastructure the quality of the social environment of deteriorated neighborhoods could be restored. The results from this historical analysis show that this turn in thinking initiated a successful water policy innovation in Rotterdam, in which the urban water policy is used to solve other urban problems as well by improving the quality of the public amenity. This paper presents key factors that contributed to this process and provides recommendations to further advance the transformation of urban water management infrastructure and the link with spatial planning.     

Asymmetric positioning and emerging paths

Emerging technologies give rise to speculation, new strategies and a redistribution of roles. A broad range of actors anticipates to future developments on the basis of commonly available expectations. These anticipations allocate roles to selves, others and imagined future artefacts. The allocations of roles can hamper future developments. In this paper we investigate the dynamics of the allocation of roles and their importance for emerging technological fields. We draw on positioning theory as developed by Harré and Van Langenhove.In this paper we compare speech-acts from relevant actors in the emerging field of Lab-on-a-chip technology for medical application. Data was collected by conducting 50+ interviews throughout the innovation chain. In these interviews we elaborated interactively socio-technical scenarios of which speech-acts were derived. In the analysis we focus on about 300 speech-acts that relate to the story-line of Point-of-Care testing. Analysing the resulting patterns gives insight in the self-restricting effects that result from asymmetric positioning. Asymmetry results from the lack of overlap in positionings of selves, others, and future artefacts. We will show asymmetric positioning in our data and will show how our analysis contributes to an understanding of the state of emerging technological fields and to positioning theory.     

Tailoring CTA for emerging technologies

Technology assessment (TA) has developed into a method that puts a strong emphasis on facilitating interfaces between supply of science and technology and the demand for useful applications. Recently, we also see that TA becomes an integral part of science and technology programs, for instance in nanotechnology. The basic aim of the latter is to articulate the needs, wishes, and constraints, for example from professional users, already in the emerging stage of technological development. TA methods come in many different forms, although they are often different versions of a limited set of ‘basic approaches’ adapted to specific conditions with the overall aim to improve societal embedding. The thrust of this paper lies in the development and results of a variant of constructive TA (CTA), addressing technological development in an early phase in order to bypass the Collingridge dilemma by developing and testing scenarios including options for the further development of emerging technologies.How to support a broad selection of relevant actors effectively with CTA in such a way that they are enabled to play their role in innovation processes of emerging technologies? This is the main research question taken up in this paper. To take on this challenge we develop, apply, and evaluate an intervention we named the 3-step constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach. We will apply the approach to a nanotechnology related topic, Lab-on-a-chip technology. By assessing the effects and evaluating the proposed approach, we also want to contribute to the development of new methodological insights relevant for the TA community.     

Characterizing the emergence of a technological field: Expectations, agendas and networks in Lab-on-a-chip technologies

In this paper we develop and use mapping tools to investigate emerging technological fields by studying the dynamics of expectations, agenda building and early networks. In our approach, expectations describe shared beliefs with regard to prospective entities and positions. Agendas are sets of priorities present to guide the actors in their work. The structure that arises as a result of the actions and interactions of actors is the emerging network. For emerging technologies these processes are susceptible to change and the technological paths that may arise are still easy to influence. We propose that not only looking at expectation dynamics, but also including agenda setting and networks dynamics is essential in order to successfully capture the complexities of the emergence of technological paths. A major challenge for this work lies in unveiling the socio-technical dynamics leading to path emergence. For this purpose we investigate the phenomena of irreversibilities that emerge during the ongoing interactions of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms. With these aspects in mind, we will use a broadened view of expectation dynamics in order to arrive at an improved understanding of the building blocks of path emergence. We illustrate our approach with a case study of Lab-on-a-chip technology for medical and pharmaceutical applications.     

Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies: The case of nanotubes

This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies. Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms. Emerging irreversibilities denote the first socio-cognitive patterns that decrease the fluidity and openness, and that, eventually constrain and enable future activities. To trace the emerging irreversibilities we focus on the dynamics of expectations and the agenda building processes. A three-level framework is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated contexts: the level of the research groups, the technological field and the society. This three-level framework allows the analyst to study different perspectives of a specific case and at the same time retain overview of the situation. By applying it to a particular application in nanotechnology, we will show that it is possible to trace the emerged irreversibilities. To conclude, we will discuss how the analysis of early dynamics is a vital ingredient of technology assessment studies that, indirectly (by means of the involved actors), seeks to influence the technological development at stake. By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment, we will show the relevance of our method for CTA studies.