On a stochastic approximation procedure based on averaging

Based on the idea of averaging a new stochastic approximation algorithm has been proposed by Bather (1989), which shows a preferable performance for small to moderate sample sizes. In the present paper an almost sure representation is established for this procedure, which gives the optimal rate of convergence with minimal asymptotic variance. Work partly supported by the research grant Ku719/2-1 of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft     

Comparing technological hype cycles: Towards a theory

The notion of ‘hype’ is widely used and represents a tempting way to characterize developments in technological fields. The term appears in business as well as in academic domains. Consultancy firms offer technological hype cycle models to determine the state of development of technological fields in order to facilitate strategic investment decisions. In Science, Technology and Innovation Studies the concept of hype is considered in studies on the dynamics of expectations in innovation processes, which focuses on the performative force of expectations. What is still lacking is a theory of hype patterns that is able to explain the different shapes of hype cycles in different contexts. In this paper we take a first step towards closing this gap by studying and comparing the results of case studies on three hypes in three different empirical domains: voice over internet protocol (VoIP), gene therapy and high-temperature superconductivity. The cases differ in terms of the type of technology and the characteristics of the application environment. We conclude that hype patterns indeed vary a lot, and that the interplay of expectations at different levels affects the ability of a field to cope with hype and disappointment.     

Asymmetric positioning and emerging paths

Emerging technologies give rise to speculation, new strategies and a redistribution of roles. A broad range of actors anticipates to future developments on the basis of commonly available expectations. These anticipations allocate roles to selves, others and imagined future artefacts. The allocations of roles can hamper future developments. In this paper we investigate the dynamics of the allocation of roles and their importance for emerging technological fields. We draw on positioning theory as developed by Harré and Van Langenhove.In this paper we compare speech-acts from relevant actors in the emerging field of Lab-on-a-chip technology for medical application. Data was collected by conducting 50+ interviews throughout the innovation chain. In these interviews we elaborated interactively socio-technical scenarios of which speech-acts were derived. In the analysis we focus on about 300 speech-acts that relate to the story-line of Point-of-Care testing. Analysing the resulting patterns gives insight in the self-restricting effects that result from asymmetric positioning. Asymmetry results from the lack of overlap in positionings of selves, others, and future artefacts. We will show asymmetric positioning in our data and will show how our analysis contributes to an understanding of the state of emerging technological fields and to positioning theory.     

Competition in a technological niche: the cars of the future

The notion of ‘niche’ has proved to be useful to account for the emergence of radical innovations. Most studies, however, deal with the development of single emerging technologies. In this paper we address the competition between multiple niche technologies. Within the niche of the ‘car of the future’ two options compete: the battery-electric and the hydrogen car. While both are shielded from regular market forces, they have to compete in terms of R&D funding, supportive regulation and infrastructure build-up. In our case study we trace the competition in terms of design rules and expectations and show how attention for both options has alternated in three phases, which follow the high hopes and subsequent disappointments of the different component technologies. Whereas there is room for simultaneously developed, multiple options at the local level, at the global level attention and expectations seem much more focused on either the one or the other.     

Credible expectations — The US Department of Energy's Hydrogen Program as enactor and selector of hydrogen technologies

There are many competing transition paths toward sustainability and even more competing visions and expectations, while only a limited of number of paths can be supported. In the literature so far, not much attention has been paid to the question: what makes one expectation more credible than another?On the basis of a case study on the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hydrogen Program we show how credible expectations build on three arguments in favor of the promising option. First there is the technology's current level of performance and its historical progress toward that level. Second a path forward is constructed to argue that even higher levels of performance can be achieved. And third, an end target is constructed that relates to relevant societal needs. All three elements can, and often are, subject of contestation and competing options will provide the same type of arguments and relate to the same societal needs.Finally, a transition path needs promising enabling technologies to remain credible, and the ‘losers’ are dropped as soon as the credibility of the path is challenged.     

Arenas of expectations for hydrogen technologies

Technological development is often described as an evolutionary process of variation, selection and retention. Different technologies are seen as variations, while the market and other institutions operate as a selection environment. It is less understood, however, how variation and selection relate in the case of emerging technologies. In this paper we introduce the concept of arenas of expectations to examine the relationship between variation and selection processes. Expectations are of particular interest in a pre-market phase of innovation, when performance, cost and other market criteria are less articulated and not stable. In arenas of expectations ‘enactors’ of particular technological variations voice and maintain expectations, while ‘selectors’ will compare and assess the competing claims. We analyse the expectations work of both parties in a case study on metal hydrides for the on-board storage of hydrogen for automotive applications. The paper concludes with a framework of ‘arenas of expectations’ as the linchpin between the processes of variation and selection of emerging technologies.     

Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies: The case of nanotubes

This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies. Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms. Emerging irreversibilities denote the first socio-cognitive patterns that decrease the fluidity and openness, and that, eventually constrain and enable future activities. To trace the emerging irreversibilities we focus on the dynamics of expectations and the agenda building processes. A three-level framework is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated contexts: the level of the research groups, the technological field and the society. This three-level framework allows the analyst to study different perspectives of a specific case and at the same time retain overview of the situation. By applying it to a particular application in nanotechnology, we will show that it is possible to trace the emerged irreversibilities. To conclude, we will discuss how the analysis of early dynamics is a vital ingredient of technology assessment studies that, indirectly (by means of the involved actors), seeks to influence the technological development at stake. By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment, we will show the relevance of our method for CTA studies.     

Farmers,institutions and technology in agricultural change processes: outcomes from Adaptive Research on rice production in Sulawesi,Indonesia

International agricultural research centres use approaches which aim to create effective linkages between the practices of farmers, introduced technologies and the wider environment that affects farming. This paper argues that such new approaches require a different type of monitoring as a complement to conventional approaches that tend to favour a quantitative assessment of adoption and impact at the farm level. In this context, we examined monitoring data from an Adaptive Research (AR) project highlighting complementary qualitative analysis. Our emphasis is to capture the improvisational capacities of farmers and to reveal social and institutional constraints and opportunities in a broader innovation system. Our approach provided clear insights into how rice farmers adjusted their practices and how actors involved linked (or not) with others in the innovation system. We also demonstrated how institutions such as policies, religious rituals or service provider arrangements pose conditions that establish or constrain practices aligned with introduced technologies. A broader perspective in monitoring AR therefore provides important additional insights into the factors which shape outcomes in farming communities. To expand outcomes, AR projects should also pay attention to designing and testing new institutional arrangements that create enabling conditions for agricultural innovation.