中国的经济增长能否持续?-一个生产率视角

中国经济转型的渐进式方法产生了持续的高增长。然而,近年来中国的经济学家们越来越认为这种增长是"粗放式"的,主要是靠增加投入获得的。我们对中国改革时期的经济进行研究,发现改革的措施往往导致对全要素生产率(TFP)的一次性的水平效应。中国现在需要调整其改革方案以促进生产率的持续增长。市场与所有制的改革,以及开放政策,改善了中国企业的经营环境,但加强建设发展完善的市场经济,还需要更为深入的制度改革。     

1980-1994期间中国国有企业的效率、技术进步和最佳实践

本文在1980年到1994年的700个国有企业样本数据的基础上,采用数据包络法和 Malmquist 指数法,以生产率的增长为指标,考察了国有企业的生产绩效。与样本企业中的最佳实践企业相比,我们的经验研究结果表明,这些样本企业的技术效率普遍较低。尽管生产率增长引人注目,但这一增长主要是通过技术进步而不是通过提高技术效率。进一步的回归分析结果表明,大型国企生产率增长的概率明显高于小型企业。最佳实践企业存在于沿海省份的大型国企当中的概率也比较高。工资激励和职工学历对于生产率的增长有显著的促进作用,企业开工率通过影响技术效率可在短期内影响生产率的增长。     

MEGA‐EVENTS AND SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT: THE CASE OF THE 1996 OLYMPIC GAMES

Using the data of the 1996 Olympic Games, this paper analyzes the economic impact of a mega‐sporting event. Earlier studies are extended in several ways. First, monthly rather than quarterly data are employed. Second, the impact is analyzed for 16 different sectors. Third, we use a nonparametric approach to flexibly isolate employment effects. Hardly any evidence for a persistent shift in the aftermath of or the preparation for the Olympic Games is supported. We find significant positive employment effects exclusively during the Olympic Games. These short‐term effects are concentrated in the sectors of “retail trade,”“accommodation and food services,” and “arts, entertainment, and recreation.” (JEL H54, R12, L83)     

Stock Market Liquidity and the Business Cycle

In the recent financial crisis we saw liquidity in the stock market drying up as a precursor to the crisis in the real economy. We show that such effects are not new; in fact, we find a strong relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle. We also show that investors' portfolio compositions change with the business cycle and that investor participation is related to market liquidity. This suggests that systematic liquidity variation is related to a “flight to quality” during economic downturns. Overall, our results provide a new explanation for the observed commonality in liquidity.     

The Performance Effects of Modular Production in the Apparel Industry

This article identifies and explains differences in performance between two widely used alternative work methods-module and bundle production—in the basics sector of the apparel industry. This research is based on interviews with managers and surveys of worker attitudes and perceptions. We find that a team production system in the apparel industry, called modules, performs better than the traditional bundle system on such measures as quality, costs, and responsiveness to retailers. Modules also perform better than bundles in reducing work-in-process inventory and throughput time. We argue that performance improvements are realized through coordination among the team members as a result of their ability to self-regulate work, eliminate bottlenecks, resolve conflicts, help one another solve problems, and make improvements in the production process.     

1980-1994期间中国国有企业的效率、技术进步和最佳实践

该文在1980年到1994年的700个国有企业样本数据的基础上,采用数据包络法和 MALMQUIST 指数法,以生产率的增长为指标,考察了国有企业的生产绩效.与样本企业中的最佳实践企业相比,我们的经验研究结果表明,这些样本企业的技术效率普遍较低.尽管生产率增长引人注目,但这一增长主要是通过技术进步而不是通过提高技术效率.进一步的回归分析结果表明,大型国企生产率增长的概率明显高于小型企业.最佳实践企业存在于沿海省份的大型国企当中的概率也比较高.工资激励和职工学历对于生产率的增长有显著的促进作用,企业开工率通过影响技术效率可在短期内影响生产率的增长.