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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the Bank of Japan's official interventions on the JPY/USD parity during the period 1992–2004. The novelty of our approach is to combine two recent advances of the empirical literature on foreign exchange interventions: (i) drawing on over-the-counter option prices to characterize more precisely the distribution of market expectations; (ii) redefining interventions in terms of events as they tend to come in clusters. Moreover, in order to deal with the features of the data (small sample size, non-standard distribution), we use bootstrap tests.We show that interventions have a significant impact on the mean expectation (the forward rate). The results are more ambiguous for variance. Additionally, we find that the effect of interventions on skewness is significant, robust to different definitions of skewness, and consistent with the direction of interventions. On the contrary, our results clearly show that kurtosis is not affected by interventions. We finally show that: (i) coordination increases effectiveness of interventions; (ii) results are not altered when controlling for other economic and political news. 相似文献
3.
Ines Wilms Jeroen Rombouts Christophe Croux 《International Journal of Forecasting》2021,37(2):484-499
Volatility forecasts aim to measure future risk and they are key inputs for financial analysis. In this study, we forecast the realized variance as an observable measure of volatility for several major international stock market indices and accounted for the different predictive information present in jump, continuous, and option-implied variance components. We allowed for volatility spillovers in different stock markets by using a multivariate modeling approach. We used heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR)-type models to obtain the forecasts. Based an out-of-sample forecast study, we show that: (i) including option-implied variances in the HAR model substantially improves the forecast accuracy, (ii) lasso-based lag selection methods do not outperform the parsimonious day-week-month lag structure of the HAR model, and (iii) cross-market spillover effects embedded in the multivariate HAR model have long-term forecasting power. 相似文献
4.
Gershon Feder 《Journal of Economic Theory》1977,16(2):504-512
This note analyzes some properties of a class of models involving optimization under uncertainty. Such models are characterized by a specific form of the objective function which is frequently encountered by economists. The discussion presented below generalizes a method which has been applied by several theoreticians [1–4, 8] to the analysis of specific topics in the theory of the firm and the problem of investment under uncertainty. This method makes use of a specific parameterization of risk and imposes some restrictions on decision makers' behavior, thus implying a model not as general as the one presented by Rothschild and Stiglitz [6, 7]. However, the present model is still plausible and affords some definite results where more general models are ambiguous. 相似文献
5.
J. Christophe Bureau Nancy H. Chau Rolf Färe Shawna Grosskopf 《Review of Development Economics》2003,7(4):527-542
The paper addresses the question of whether trade restrictiveness impacts economic performance, via a trade restrictiveness index that is decomposable into a trade distortion and a domestic distortion component. The paper builds on the Anderson and Neary price index measure of trade distortion, in evaluating trade restrictiveness via a distance function approach. This is accomplished by adding a “dual” version to their trade restrictiveness price index, based on distance functions that scale output quantities. The authors compute the trade restrictiveness quantity index (TRQI) using a parametric frontier approach to model the production side of the economy, and a panel of information on the agricultural sector of a set of European Community countries. The results suggest that the use of TRQI makes a considerable difference to interpretations of the efficiency impact of agricultural trade policies in EC countries, as compared to policy‐oriented aggregates or result‐oriented measures of trade restrictiveness. 相似文献
6.
Christophe Chamley 《European Economic Review》2004,48(3):477-501
The general model of social learning with irreversible investment and endogenous timing is analyzed for any distribution of private informations. Strategic complementarities and multiple equilibria appear which are generated solely by information externalities. Different equilibria generate strikingly different amounts of information. The impacts of various assumptions (bounded beliefs, large number of agents, discrete time and short periods) are examined carefully. The properties are robust to the introduction of observation noise with a continuum of agents. 相似文献
7.
Agricultural Extension: Good Intentions and Hard Realities 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
What considerations lead policymakers to invest in agriculturalextension as a key public responsibility, and what factors andagency incentives explain differences in extension system performance?To help answer these questions, this article provides a frameworkoutlining farmers' demand for information, the public goodscharacter of extension services, and the organizational andpolitical attributes affecting the performance of extensionsystems. This conceptual framework is used to analyze severalextension modalities and their likely and actual effectiveness.The analysis highlights the efficiency gains that can come fromlocally decentralized delivery systems with incentive structuresbased on largely private provision, although in most poorercountries extension services will remain publicly funded. 相似文献
8.
Christophe Courbage Henri Loubergé Béatrice Rey 《The GENEVA Risk and Insurance Review》2018,43(1):77-94
This paper investigates how welfare losses for facing high-order risk increases change when the risk environment of the decision maker is altered. To that aim, we define the nth-order utility premium as a measure of pain associated with facing the passage of one risk to a more severe one and we examine some of its properties. Changes in risk are expressed through the concept of stochastic dominance of order n. The paper investigates more particularly welfare changes of merging increases in risk, first ignoring background risks, then taking them into account. Merging increases in risk may be beneficial or not, depending on whether background risks are considered and how. The paper also provides conditions on individual preferences for superadditivity of the nth-order utility premium. The results confirm the importance and usefulness of two analytical concepts: mixed risk aversion and risk apportionment. 相似文献
9.
In this paper, we measure, compare and analyse gender and ethnic earnings gaps in seven West African capitals using data from an original series of urban household surveys. Our results show that gender earnings gaps are large in all the cities in our sample with significant variations across cities. Cities with large gender earnings gaps are also where gender education gaps are wider and where the female labour market participation is highest. Decomposition of the gender gaps shows that differences in characteristics explain around 40% of the raw gender gap on average, but this varies somewhat across cities. The results of the full decomposition of the gender earnings gaps suggest that differences in sector allocation contribute, on average, to one third of gender earnings gaps. Gender gaps are very wide in the informal sector and differences in micro-firm characteristics also account for differences in self-employment earnings. In contrast to the large gender earnings gaps measured in the seven cities, majority ethnic groups do not appear to be in a systematically advantageous position on the urban labour markets in our sample of cities, and observed gaps are small compared with gender gaps. Looking at more detailed levels of ethnic disaggregation, ethnic earnings differentials are found to be systematically smaller than gender differentials. Moreover, none of the minority “favoured” groups seem to have any relation to the ethnicity of the Head of State at the time of the survey. Holding productive characteristics constant, some unexplained differences persist however. 相似文献
10.
One‐sample and multi‐sample tests on the concentration parameter of Fisher‐von Mises‐Langevin distributions on (hyper‐)spheres have been well studied in the literature. However, only little is known about their behaviour under local alternatives, which is due to complications inherent to the curved nature of the parameter space. The aim of the present paper therefore consists in filling that gap by having recourse to the Le Cam methodology, which has recently been adapted from the linear to the spherical setup. We obtain explicit expressions of the powers for the most efficient one‐ and multi‐sample tests. As a nice by‐product, we are also able to write down the powers (against local Fisher‐von Mises‐Langevin alternatives) of the celebrated Rayleigh test of uniformity. A Monte Carlo simulation study confirms our theoretical findings and shows the empirical powers of the above‐mentioned procedures. 相似文献