Asymmetric effects of industrial production,money supply and exchange rate changes on stock returns in Turkey

The aim of this article is twofold: First, it examines the asymmetric effects of industrial production, money supply and RER on stock returns in Turkey by using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the periods of 1994:01–2017:05 and 2002:01–2017:05. Second, it tries to determine whether there is a change of these macroeconomic variables’ effects on stock returns after the 2001 financial crisis since after 2002 period represents a structural break from the past in terms of economic, political and macroeconomic policy approaches. The study finds that the effects of the changes in industrial production, money supply and RER on stock returns are asymmetric, and the asymmetries are larger after the 2002 subsample compared to the full sample period. The empirical results further suggest that tight monetary policies appear to retard the stock returns more than easy monetary policies that stimulate them.     

Limited information-processing capacity and asymmetric stock correlations

Through an orthogonalized impulse-response analysis, I studied the relationship between the variance risk premium, market variance and stock correlations in the French stock market from September 2002 through September 2006, using high-frequency data-based measures. Variance risk premium is estimated using realized variances and index options-implied variances and used as a state vector to proxy investors perceived uncertainty. I found that a shock to variance risk premium causes long-lasting increases in the market variance pointing to the limitedness of investors information-processing capacity. At the same time, the shock generates consecutive increases in realized correlations between individual stocks and the market portfolio. I propose this as a possible explanation for the asymmetric/counter-cyclic behaviour of stock correlations.     

The impact of country risk ratings on U.S. firms in large cross-border acquisitions

This study investigates the impact of country risk ratings on the wealth gains to large U.S. bidders involved in cross-border acquisitions. The findings indicate that U.S. bidders experience positive wealth gains during the merger announcements, though this is concentrated in transactions involving European targets. There are also differences in wealth gains to bidders with respect to industry classification and location of foreign targets. The country risk factors including economic, political, and financial risk ratings all play a significant role in explaining the wealth gains to bidders. Furthermore, the wealth gains are higher for the firms with acquisitions in developed countries and are significantly related to GNP growth rate.     

Prediction of bank financial strength ratings: The case of Turkey

Bank financial strength ratings have gained widespread popularity especially after the recent financial turmoil. Rating agencies were criticized because of their ratings and failure to predict the bankruptcy of the banks. Based on this observation, we investigate whether the forecast of the rating of bank's financial strength using publicly available data is consistent with those of the credit rating agency. We use the data of Turkish banks for this investigation. We take a country-specific approach because previous studies found that proxies used for environmental factors (political, economic, and financial risk of the country) did not have any explanatory power and it is hard to find international data for other important factors such as franchise value, concentration, and efficiency. We use two popular multivariate statistical techniques (multiple discriminant analysis and ordered logistic regression) to estimate a suitable model and we compare their performances with those of two mostly used data mining techniques (Support Vector Machine and Artificial Neural Network). Our results suggest that our predictions are consistent with those of Moody's financial strength rating in general.. The important factors in rating are found to be profitability (measured by return on equity), efficient use of resources, and funding the businesses and the households instead of the government that shows efficient placement of the funds.     

International mergers and acquisitions: A jump diffusion model application

This paper empirically investigates international mergers and acquisitions (M&As) of foreign targets and bidders by analyzing the stock price behavior of the firms involved. The jump diffusion model is employed to study the effects of the M&A announcements on stock prices. The results indicate that acquisition announcements are perceived as a surprise by the market, but prices seem to adjust rather rapidly, supporting the semi-strong form of the market efficiency hypothesis. In addition, a comparison of the pure diffusion and jump diffusion models indicates that the jump diffusion model is statistically superior to the traditional event study methodology (pure diffusion model). (JEL G34)     

Duality and convergence for binomial markets with friction

We prove limit theorems for the super-replication cost of European options in a binomial model with friction. Examples covered are markets with proportional transaction costs and illiquid markets. A dual representation for the super-replication cost in these models is obtained and used to prove the limit theorems. In particular, the existence of a liquidity premium for the continuous-time limit of the model proposed in Çetin et al. (Finance Stoch. 8:311–341, 2004) is proved. Hence, this paper extends the previous convergence result of Gökay and Soner (Math Finance 22:250–276, 2012) to the general non-Markovian case. Moreover, the special case of small transaction costs yields, in the continuous limit, the G-expectation of Peng as earlier proved by Kusuoka (Ann. Appl. Probab. 5:198–221, 1995).     

Estimation of food demand in Turkey: method of an almost ideal demand system

In this study, data of the household income and consumption expenditure surveys conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute for 1994 and 2003 years were used; income, price, and cross price elasticities under six aggregated product groups were estimated within the framework of the an almost ideal demand system approach for food expenditures; and estimation of household consumers’ food demand in Turkey was analyzed. According to the findings obtained, it was established that a price-bound change would appear in the food demand, and elasticities were calculated. Expenditures by product groups and price elasticities were obtained, and the product groups were aggregated as bread and cereals; meat, fish, and poultry; milk and dairy products, oil and egg; vegetables and fruits; various fast food and alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.