Option Implied Dividends Predict Dividend Cuts: Evidence from the Financial Crisis

We employ the forward‐looking implied dividend information contained in option prices to predict dividend cuts and omissions during the recent financial crisis. The large number of dividend cuts and omissions during the 2008–09 financial crisis period provides the opportunity to study the predictability of dividend cuts in a controlled environment. Implied dividends and implied volatility, based on put–call parity and computed from put and call option prices, prove to be effective in predicting those cuts, especially compared to only using the equity market and accounting variables conventionally used for this purpose. Options‐derived variables (implied dividends and implied volatility) enhance the ability to identify firms more likely to reduce or omit dividend payments.     

Is television advertising being placed to reach product users?

Several textbooks, journal articles, and advertising practitioners indicate that the advertising for many products should be directed toward the heavy users of the product category. Other works suggest that advertising should be directed at current users of a brand to retain them or to users of competitive brands in an effort to attract them. The purpose of this article is to compare these directions for how advertising should be placed with data showing how advertising is being placed. The comparison is made using supermarket scanner panel data and household advertising exposure data. Examples are also provided to indicate the extent to which advertising could be targeted to heavy users of the product category and users of a brand, given the actual viewing and consumption patterns. Several implications for the placement of advertising are discussed.     

Equity valuation: A survey of professional practice

This paper reports the results of a scientific survey of the equity valuation practices of CFA Institute members with equity analysis job responsibilities. Using an instrument designed to minimize biases in prior valuation surveys and sampling a larger group than in previous studies (13,500 investment professionals, resulting in 1,980 valid completed questionnaires), this paper documents professional practices in the selection of equity valuation approaches, including specific model variations and key input preferences. Important differences in practice were observed across geographies and employer firm types.     

Financial clusters,industry groups,and stock return correlations

Industry classifications are used by investors, economists, and policy makers for a great variety of purposes. The traditional economic‐activity‐based systems (Global Industry Classification Standard, North American Industry Classification System, Standard Industrial Classification, and Fama–French) have been supplemented in recent years by alternative classification systems. Our purpose is to provide another alternative system that forms classification groups based on the structure of firm financial statements. Using cluster analysis, a multivariate tool that forms groups where their characteristics are similar within groups and distinct across groups, we form clusters of large U.S. firms based on their common‐size financial statements (percentage breakdowns of balance sheets and income statements). We characterize the financial clusters based on their industry classifications and other economic information and assess the ability of financial clusters and industry groups, separately and jointly, to explain stock return correlations of all pairs of firms. Our results demonstrate that using financial clusters and industry groups together proves advantageous relative to using either alone.     

Financial statement change and equity risk

While financial statement analysis is a rich tool, there is no widely used holistic measure of the amount of change in corporate financial statements. Statistical decomposition analysis has been employed as an index of the amount of change, but has fallen into disuse because it does not allow negative accounting numbers. As a remedy, this paper suggests three distance measures adapted from cluster analysis that avoid this critical data limitation. We successfully apply these proposed distance measures to explain the total and systematic risk of stock returns (in the CAPM and Fama–French model), corporate bond ratings, and corporate distress.     

Cheating and Enforcement in Asymmetric Rank‐Order Tournaments

In rank‐order tournaments, undesirable but output‐enhancing activities, such as cheating, may occur. Cheating may be especially tempting when one player has an advantage over another. We show that when audit probabilities are low (high), the leading (trailing) player has more incentive to cheat. Furthermore, we show that “correlated” audits are more effective at decreasing the frequency of cheating than independent audits. Finally, we show that differential monitoring schemes, where contestants are audited based on either their initial position or final ranking, more efficiently achieve full deterrence than schemes that monitor contestants with equal probability.     

Incorporating morale into a classical agency model: implications for incentives, effort, and organization

This paper incorporates morale into a standard principal-agent model. When morale is observable, the worker’s effort level, the optimal piece rate, and the firm’s expected profits are all generally increasing in the worker’s level of morale. Furthermore, under reasonable conditions, higher-morale individuals are more responsive to incentives. Finally, when considering morale interdependence, conditions are derived which determine optimal organization strategies in terms of pooling or separating workers, and corresponding staffing policies are discussed.