Alternative approaches for the reformulation of economics

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination -     

This is what the leading indicators lead

We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyse the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes, probit, non‐parametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and non‐parametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the NBER business cycle schedule and GDP growth. This confirms the usefulness of CLI, even in a real‐time analysis. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sources of gains from international portfolio diversification

This paper looks at the determinants of country and industry specific factors in international portfolio returns using a sample of forty eight countries and thirty nine industries over the last three decades. Country factors have remained relatively stable over the sample period while industry factors have significantly increased during the last decade and dropped again since 2000. The importance of industry and country factors is correlated with measures of economic and financial international integration and development. We find that financial market globalization is the main driving force behind the changes in relative magnitude of the different shocks. Country factors are smaller for countries integrated in world financial markets and have declined as the degree of financial integration and the number of countries pursuing financial liberalization has increased. Higher international financial integration within an industry increases the importance of industry factors in explaining returns. Economic integration of production also helps in explaining returns. Countries with a more specialized production activity have higher country shocks.     

Workload control under continuous order release

Workload control is a production planning and control concept specifically designed for complex manufacturing environments. Past research on Workload control has been essentially focused on discrete order release. This means that release of orders to the shop floor takes places on a periodic basis. Continuous order release has been somehow neglected, in spite of its apparent potential for improving system performance, including the reduction of order flow times. This paper presents a simulation study of this order release approach. The study contributes for improving the basis for setting workload norms, selecting the workload control strategy and deciding upon routing alternatives under continuous order release.     

Public Sector Organizations and Cocreation With Citizens: A Literature Review on Benefits,Drivers, and Barriers

ABSTRACT

Cocreation has captured the attention of public managers and policymakers and yet the literature focusing in the public sector is still relatively dispersed. In this literature review we present a contextualized analysis of the potential reasons that lead public sector organizations to cocreate with citizens and identify potential barriers that may hamper the adoption of cocreation in public settings. The analysis undertaken allowed us to conclude that the topic is increasingly capturing the interest of researchers, although the state of the literature is characterized by a reduced heterogeneity in research methods. We classified cocreation benefits in the public sector as innovation related, improved decision-making, and symbolic related, and we categorized the drivers for cocreation according to three broad categories: external, relation-specific and internal. Finally, we identified potential barriers of cocreation, including structural, organizational, and behavioral barriers.     

Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time

We extend the Markov-switching dynamic factor model to account for some of the specificities of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments from macroeconomic indicators, such as mixed sampling frequencies and ragged-edge data. First, we evaluate the theoretical gains of using data that are available promptly for computing probabilities of recession in real time. Second, we show how to estimate the model that deals with unbalanced panels of data and mixed frequencies, and examine the benefits of this extension through several Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we assess its empirical reliability for the computation of real-time inferences of the US business cycle, and compare it with the alternative method of forecasting the probabilities of recession from balanced panels.     

Extracting Nonlinear Signals from Several Economic Indicators

We develop a twofold analysis of how the information provided by several economic indicators can be used in Markov switching dynamic factor models to identify the business cycle turning points. First, we compare the performance of a fully nonlinear multivariate specification (one‐step approach) with the ‘shortcut’ of using a linear factor model to obtain a coincident indicator, which is then used to compute the Markov switching probabilities (two‐step approach). Second, we examine the role of increasing the number of indicators. Our results suggest that one step is generally preferred to two steps, especially in the vicinity of turning points, although its gains diminish as the quality of the indicators increases. Additionally, we also obtain decreasing returns of adding more indicators with similar signal‐to‐noise ratios. Using the four constituent series of the Stock–Watson coincident index, we illustrate these results for US data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring the customer's intention to switch firms: The role of customer‐related antecedents

This study examined the customer‐related antecedents of the customer's intention to switch firms. Customer citizenship behavior was a key element in this study. Scholars have extensively studied the antecedents of customer citizenship behavior. However, the way that customer citizenship behavior relates to other attitudinal variables and the intention to switch has scarcely been analyzed. The proposed hypotheses were verified using partial least squares variance‐based structural equation modeling applied to 947 users of beauty care service firms in five countries. The results suggest that customer citizenship behavior is an antecedent of satisfaction, trust, and attitudinal loyalty. Two of these variables influence customers’ intentions to abandon relationships with the service provider. The implications of these findings enhance managers’ and scholars’ understanding of the determinants of customers’ intentions to switch firms.