Media-Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence

In this paper, we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices, using large amounts of media data, as an alternative to the conventional survey method used to create the consumer confidence index in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of possible candidate sentiment indices constructed from a combination of different text sources and dictionaries that best mimic the traditional survey-based consumer confidence index from the South African Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The results conclude that it is possible to create an index using sentiment analysis using online editorial data that does resemble the BER’s consumer confidence index. The different media-based sentiment indices (MSI) show a significant level of correlation and co-movement with the BER’s CCI. Impulse responses and cross-correlation functions indicate that the MSI could potentially lead the survey-based method up to two quarters. Furthermore, Granger-causality tests show that the media-based indices are good predictors of future consumer confidence index values. The results provide motivation for further study on the use of sentiment-based techniques and online media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa.     

Tax avoidance and ex ante cost of capital

This study examines the association between tax avoidance and ex ante cost of equity capital. Based on prior research, we develop two proxies for investors’ expectations of tax avoidance and explore whether deviations from those expectations result in higher ex ante cost of equity capital. We find that the ex ante cost of equity capital increases with tax avoidance that is either below or above investor expectations and that the increase is larger for tax avoidance that exceeds investors’ expectations. We then examine whether firms that alter their future tax avoidance exhibit a lowering of their ex ante cost of equity capital and find that tax avoidance decreases (increases) from the prior year for firms that were above (below) investors’ expectations in the prior year. These results are consistent with the trade‐off suggested by the Scholes and Wolfson framework and reinforce the notion that balancing tax benefits and non‐tax costs is an important feature of firms’ tax planning.     

Uncovering the hidden transaction costs of market power: A property rights approach to strategic positioning

A central construct in competitive strategy research is market power, the ability to raise price above marginal cost. Positioning research focuses on attempts to build, protect, and exercise market power. However, this approach contains hidden assumptions about transaction costs. Parties made worse off by the exercise of market power can negotiate, bargain, form coalitions, and otherwise contract around the focal firm's attempts to appropriate monopoly profits—depending on transaction costs. We build on property rights economics to explain how transaction costs affect positioning and offer propositions about successful positioning in an environment with transaction costs.     

Information sharing as a safeguard against the opportunistic behavior of South African Karoo Lamb farmers

Misconduct in global meat supply chains are omnipresent and even more so in differentiated chains where credence attributes such as origin and taste are used to differentiate the product. By definition, these attributes signal asymmetric information which implies that in the presence of bounded rational individuals with conflicting interests, misconduct in the form of opportunistic behavior is bound to prevail. Increased information exchange through farmer networks is, however, expected to reduce opportunistic behavior. In the case of a differentiated meat product, such as Karoo Lamb, the article studies the farmer‐abattoir transaction with the purpose of recommending strategies that can be implemented to reduce the farmer's tendency to behave opportunistically. The article employs the PLS approach to SEM and reveals a significant negative relationship between information shared and opportunistic behavior. The results indicate significant positive relationships between trust in the abattoir and information shared as well as between farmer networks and information shared. These results are indicative of the support provided to the information shared construct by higher levels of trust between farmers and abattoirs and established farmer networks. It is, therefore, recommended that differentiated meat supply chains, through their various associations, concentrate their efforts to promote information sharing by building stronger, trust centered relationships and by supporting farmer networks.     

Targeting Teaching: Engaged Learning with the Inquiry‐Based Question Cluster Discussion Technique: Student Outcomes in a History of Economic Thought Course

Twenty‐six undergraduate students explored the meaning of the classics (Adam Smith and Karl Marx) and two lesser‐known contributions in ethics and economics (Robert Owen and John Ruskin) in a spring 2007 history of economic thought course. This article introduces the inquiry‐based discussion technique used in the course and presents five question clusters fulfilling requirements for an inquiry‐based discussion. A proposed hypothesis is that the technique increases student understanding of challenging texts. Pre‐ and postdiscussion assessments for five interpretative questions serve as evidence to evaluate the hypothesis. Assessment results lend empirical support to the hypothesized positive impact of the technique on student learning. End‐of‐the‐semester student survey results captured student opinions concerning their learning from the technique. Survey results suggest the students believe that the technique positively impacts aspects of the learning process; the students recommend the discussion technique for future use.     

New institutional economics: what does it have to offer?

This article discusses the empirical relevance of what is considered two prinicipal contributions to the new institutional economics–the contributions of A. Schotter and O. Williamson – and draw three general conclusions. First, it is argued, on the basis of a comparison of the above mentioned two contributions to new institutional economics, their empirical relevance cannot be discussed in general but must be based on separate analyses of the two contributions and will depend on the institutions which are analysed. Secondly, that it is especially within analyses of consequence and design of institutions that the Williamson-approach to new institutional economics presently has something to offer while there seems to be rather limited possibilities for application of the approach of Schotter. Thirdly, that in their future development, the two contributions can probably both mutually benefit each other and benefit from an integration of elements from other institutional theories.     

Military conquest and sovereign debt: Chile,Peru and the London bond market, 1876–1890

As a result of the War of the Pacific (1879–1883), Chile conquered Peruvian and Bolivian territories rich in nitrates and guano. We conduct econometric tests for structural breaks in the time series of the government bonds for Chile and Peru between 1876 and 1890 in order to examine the effects of the changes in resource endowments on the investors’ perceptions of the risk premia of Chilean and Peruvian securities. Our results reveal that investors were extremely pessimistic about the prospects of Chilean, and especially Peruvian debt prior to the war. Early Chilean victories that anticipated the transfer of the richly endowed provinces to Chile caused significant increases in the price of Chilean securities. But such was the low regard with which investors viewed the Peruvian government that the fall of Lima caused an increase in the price of Peruvian bonds on the hope that Chile would assume some of the responsibility for them. Endowments, reputations, and the countries’ financial conditions figure prominently as the driving forces behind the investors’ behavior.