The Relation between Market Values,Earnings Forecasts,and Reported Earnings*

Recently, much of the research into the relation between market values and accounting numbers has used, or at least made reference to, the residual income model (RIM). Two basic types of empirical research have developed. The “historical” type explores the relation between market values and reported accounting numbers, often using the linear dynamics in Ohlson 1995 and Feltham and Ohlson 1995 and 1996. The “forecast” type explores the relation between market value and the present value of the book value of equity, a truncated sequence of residual income forecasts, and an estimate of the terminal value at the truncation date. The analysis in this paper integrates these two approaches. We expand the Feltham and Ohlson 1996 model by including one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income forecasts to infer “other” information regarding future revenues from past investments and future growth opportunities. This approach results in a model in which the difference between market value and book value of equity is a function of current residual income, one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income, current capital investment, and start‐of‐period operating assets. The existence of both persistence in revenues from current and prior investments and growth in future positive net present value investment opportunities leads us to hypothesize a negative coefficient on the one‐period‐ahead residual income forecast and a positive coefficient on the two‐period‐ahead residual income forecast. Our empirical results strongly support our hypotheses with respect to the forecast coefficients.     

Cosmopolitan risk community in a bowl: a case study of China’s good food movement

Abstract

Ulrich Beck fundamentally transformed our way of thinking about human interdependence through his three core theses on risk, individualisation and cosmopolitanisation. However, two commonly observed deficiencies in Beck’s grand theory were its Eurocentric orientation and a lack of empirical grounding. Based on 5 focus groups and 14 interviews with participants of the emerging Clean Food Movement in China, this paper extends the Beckian discussion outside Europe. Through examining how individuals understand both ‘traditional’ and ‘new’ risks associated with contemporary food consumption, this paper demonstrates that in the face of unpredictable and incalculable harms, risks are not seen as a ‘thing’, but are translated into ‘causal relations’. Subsequently, for Chinese stakeholders, the best way to safeguard food risks is to enact more visible and functioning interdependent relations in the food system. This in turn has given rise to new forms of communities which cut across conventional geographic, socio-economic and political boundaries. The paper deepens a Beckian theorisation in two ways. First, it demonstrates that the ‘enabling’ effect of risk towards a cosmopolitan society is not limited to obvious global crises, such as climate catastrophes and financial meltdown. In fact, the mundane yet intimate concern of putting ‘good’ food in one’s dinner bowl already presses actors to form new social solidarities that are cosmopolitan in nature. Second, it goes beyond Beck’s assertion that the risk society has culminated in a cosmopolitan moment, and explores how a performative cosmopolitan community reshapes the ‘relations of definition’ to mitigate risks on the ground.     

Gold and the US dollar: Hedge or haven?

Using a model of dynamic conditional correlations covering 23 years of weekly data for 16 major dollar-paired exchange rates, this paper addresses a practical investment question: Does gold act as a hedge against the US dollar, as a safe haven, or neither? Key findings are as follows. (i) During the past 23 years gold has behaved as a hedge against the US dollar. (ii) Gold has been a poor safe haven. (iii) In recent years gold has acted, increasingly, as an effective hedge against currency risk associated with the US dollar.     

Comparative effectiveness of standard endotracheal tubes vs. endotracheal tubes with continuous subglottic suctioning on ventilator-associated pneumonia rates

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) accounts for the majority of nosocomial pneumonias, which may increase intensive care and prolonged hospital stays. Endotracheal tubes allowing continuous subglottic suctioning may reduce VAP; however, they are more expensive than standard endotracheal tubes not allowing continuous suctioning. he objective of this study was to measure the comparative costs associated with continuous subglottic suctioning endotracheal tubes (CSS-ETT) versus standard endotracheal tubes (S-ETT) among intubated patients and whether cost differential is offset by the occurrence of VAP in patients receiving either type of intubation. A retrospective chart review was conducted for 154 intubated adult patients (77 = S-ETT; 77 = CSS-ETT). The S-ETT group had one case of VAP; the CSS-ETT group had none. The mean total hospital charges were higher for the S-ETT group ($103,600; CSS-ETT= $88,500) (p = 0.3). Although the average number of intubation days and ICU days were greater for the CSS-ETT group, there were no cases of VAP compared to the S-ETT group. ased upon the one S-ETT VAP case and the VAP attributable costs, it is cost effective to use the CSS-ETT.     

A model of community-based festival image

This study initiates an original inquiry into the image of community-based festivals (CBFs). A CBF image model was proposed and empirically tested based on existing destination image models. Four image constructs were identified as Attributes, Family and Friendliness, Affective Association, and Overall Evaluation. The interrelationships among these constructs were tested by structural equation modeling. The findings revealed that Attributes affects Family and Friendliness and Affective Association, which in turn, affects Overall Evaluation. This study also included visitor loyalty in the understanding of CBF image. It was found that repeat visitors had more favorable perceptions of the CBF than did first-time visitors. Significant perceptual differences were found in Family and Friendliness, Affective Association, and Overall Evaluation between the two groups of festival goers. In addition, it was revealed that loyalty exerted significantly negative interaction effects on the relationship between Attributes and Family and Friendliness, as well as the linkage between Family and Friendliness and Overall Evaluation. In addition, this study illustrated the importance of the support of local residents for CBFs. CBF planners and local tourism organizations would benefit from this study in terms of cultivating visitor loyalty to these festivals and building the destination's brand.     

Give Them Something to Smile About: A Marketing Strategy for Recruiting and Retaining Volunteers

Using a marketing perspective, this study investigates whether the issue of “fun at work” would appeal to volunteers as a part of an effort to enhance recruitment and retention. Specifically, we examined volunteers' attitudes toward fun, their perceptions of what kinds of activities are fun and what are not, and the relative importance of workplace fun in what they perceive as an ideal volunteer position. In general, we found that volunteers had positive attitudes towards fun and experiencing fun at work was associated with higher job satisfaction and lower turnover intentions. Although “a fun workplace” was ranked relatively low in importance relative to other reasons why they volunteer, creating such an environment could enhance retention. Some age and gender differences were found in the perceptions of whether certain activities are fun or not. The implications of these results and directions for future research are discussed.     

The Asian Automotive Industry: Assessing the Roles of State and Market in the Age of Global Competition

In the 1970s, automotive industries in developing economies were rebuked for their failure to set in motion the technological learning and industrial externalities that justified state promotion. However, in the 1990s, a number of Asian automotive industries throve with the rapid growth of their host economies. This paper assesses the current state and prospects of automotive industries in selected Asian countries with state-sponsored development programs—South Korea, Taiwan, China and India—and the ASEAN economies—Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. To date, Korea is the only developing economy in Asia with an indigenous auto-manufacturing base capable of competing in the international market. Given developments in the world industry, the catch-up task for other countries in the region will be more difficult.     

The realistic preview may not yield career satisfaction

Based on 155 completed surveys from hospitality management alumni from three mid-Atlantic 4-year programs, this study suggests that a realistic preview of the industry gained in an experiential learning component may not, alone, be the key to early career satisfaction. While graduates reportedly believe they understand the expectations of the industry, they are expressing dissatisfaction in their first career positions. For human resource professionals, this study would indicate that special attention should be directed to the first-position college graduate, as 23% of respondents in this study reported leaving the industry altogether after the first management position.