Population suburbanization in Barcelona, 1991–2005: Is its spatial structure changing?

The aim of this article is to determine whether population suburbanization is occurring in Barcelona and, if so, how it is organized spatially. This issue is addressed through an analysis of the spatial structure of the population of the Barcelona Metropolitan Region and its evolution between 1991 and 2005. The ultimate aim is to determine whether there is a process of population suburbanization during these 15 years and, if this is the case, whether it arises according to a dispersed or a polycentric model. The results are consistent with a polycentric model for 1991 and 2005. However, this spatial structure is changing because of the process of suburbanization, which is affecting both the central business district and subcenters. During this same period, it is found that the role played by transport infrastructure in determining the spatial structure is becoming stronger. Without considering this latter result, it would appear that the dispersed model would best describe the next spatial stage. On the other hand, if the role played by transport infrastructure is taken into consideration, the next spatial stage would be an accessibility model in which population concentrates along freeways and highways.     

Inflation Targeting,Recursive Inattentiveness,and Heterogeneous Beliefs

We consider a monetary authority that provides an explicit inflation target in order to align expectations with the policy objective. However, biased perceptions of the target may arise due to imperfect information flows. We allow agents to revise expectations over time and we model their recursive choice among prediction strategies as an optimization problem under rational inattention. We then investigate whether a simple policy rule can steer the economy toward the targeted equilibrium. Our findings suggest that determinacy under rational expectations may not be sufficient to reach the target. Instead, monetary policy should be fine‐tuned to correct agents' biased beliefs.     

Nonlinear Transmission of Financial Shocks: Some New Evidence

Financial shocks generate a protracted and quantitatively important effect on real economic activity and financial markets only if the shocks are both negative and large. Otherwise, their role is quite modest. Financial shocks have become more important for economic fluctuations after 2000 and have contributed substantially to deepening the recessions of 2001 and 2008. The evidence is obtained using a new econometric procedure based on a Vector Moving Average representation that includes a nonlinear function of the financial shock. This method is a contribution of the present work.     

When Credit Bites Back

Using data on 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008 we document two key facts of the modern business cycle: relative to typical recessions, financial crisis recessions are costlier, and more credit‐intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions (in financial crises or otherwise) and slower recoveries. We use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macro‐economic controls to study how past credit accumulation impacts key macro‐economic variables such as output, investment, lending, interest rates, and inflation. The facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that financial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle.     

Single european currency: Effects on firm structure and personnel management

This paper examines the likely effects of the introduction of the single European currency, whose arrival means that the development of the economic space of the European Union will be completed. Two aspects of the forthcoming changes are analyzed. First is the process of monetary integration, which will spread over three years, and is here reviewed chronologically. Second is the final effect of this process on firms—how different company structures will adapt and what actions will have to be taken with regard to the management of human resources.     

The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself

Risky arbitraging based on interest rate differentials between two countries is typically referred to as a carry trade. Up until the recent global financial crisis, these trades generated years of persistent positive returns, which were hard to reconcile with standard pricing kernels. In 2008 these trades blew up, which seemed to weaken the case for a puzzle relating to predictable currency returns. But the rise and fall of this puzzle in the academic literature has only been concerned with naïve carry trades based on yield signals alone. We show, however, that some simple and more realistic fundamentals-augmented trading strategies would have generated strong and sustained positive profits that endured through the turmoil.     

Mobility and labour market exclusion in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region

This article analyses the relationship between daily mobility and labour market exclusion. In many areas of the Barcelona Metropolitan Region, the predominant car-based mobility model and the secondary role of public transport discriminate against non-car users when it comes to job opportunities. This territory’s capacity to generate labour market inclusion is analysed based on multi-functionality and the level of public transport services which, in turn, serve as a basis for three territorial classifications: non-excluding, semi-excluding and excluding.     

ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE BY THE METHOD OF PROJECTION MINIMUM DISTANCE: AN APPLICATION TO THE NEW KEYNESIAN HYBRID PHILLIPS CURVE*

The stability of the solution path in a macroeconomic model implies that it admits a Wold representation. This Wold representation can be estimated semi‐parametrically by local projections and used to estimate the model's parameters by minimum distance techniques even when the stochastic process for the solution path is unknown or unconventional. We name this two‐step estimation procedure “projection minimum distance” and investigate its statistical properties for the broad class of models where the mapping between Wold coefficients and parameters is linear. This includes many situations with likelihood score functions nonlinear in the parameters that would otherwise require numerical optimization routines.     

Optimal information transmission in organizations: search and congestion

We propose a stylized model of a problem-solving organization whose internal communication structure is given by a fixed network. Problems arrive randomly anywhere in this network and must find their way to their respective specialized solvers by relying on local information alone. The organization handles multiple problems simultaneously. For this reason, the process may be subject to congestion. We provide a characterization of the threshold of collapse of the network and of the stock of floating problems (or average delay) that prevails below that threshold. We build upon this characterization to address a design problem: the determination of what kind of network architecture optimizes performance for any given problem arrival rate. We conclude that, for low arrival rates, the optimal network is very polarized (i.e. star-like or centralized), whereas it is largely homogenous (or decentralized) for high arrival rates. These observations are in line with a common transformation experienced by information-intensive organizations as their work flow has risen in recent years.