Retirement Expectations and Satisfaction with Retirement Provisions

This paper investigates the relationship between subjective expectations regarding the replacement rate of income at retirement and several measures of pension satisfaction. We use panel data on Dutch employees, analyzed with fixed effects models, allowing for correlation between unobserved heterogeneity in satisfaction and optimism or pessimism in expectations. The level of the expected replacement rate is found to be positively related to satisfaction: respondents who revise their expectations of the level of their replacement rate upwards tend to become more satisfied with their pension provisions, in particular with the level of the expected benefits. We do not find robust evidence for a relationship between uncertainty and pension satisfaction.     

Estimating within‐cluster spillover effects using a cluster randomization with application to knowledge diffusion in rural India

Spillover effects within randomized clusters pose a challenge for identifying impacts of an individualized treatment. The paper proposes a solution. Longitudinal and intra‐household observations are combined in estimating the direct knowledge gain from watching an info‐movie in rural India, while randomized village assignment identifies knowledge sharing. Simulations on synthetic data and econometric tests provide support for the estimation method. We find evidence of information sharing, but far less so for disadvantaged groups, such as illiterate and lower‐caste individuals; these groups rely more on actually seeing the movie. Our results are consistent with sizeable biases in ordinary least squares, matching or instrumental variable impact estimators that ignore within‐cluster spillovers.     

Viewpoint: Estimating the causal effects of policies and programs

Estimation, inference and interpretation of the causal effects of programs and policies have all advanced dramatically over the past 25 years. We highlight three particularly important intellectual trends: an improved appreciation of the substantive importance of heterogeneous responses and of their methodological implications, a stronger focus on internal validity brought about by the “credibility revolution,” and the scientific value that follows from grounding estimation and interpretation in economic theory. We discuss a menu of commonly employed partial equilibrium approaches to the identification of causal effects, emphasizing that the researcher's central intellectual contribution always consists of making an explicit case for a specific causal interpretation given the relevant economic theory, the data, the institutional context and the economic question of interest. We also touch on the importance of general equilibrium effects and full cost–benefit analyses.     

Land Aggregation Using Contingent and Guaranteed Payments

This article explores the use of alternative payment mechanisms to overcome the holdout problem when multiple parcels of land must be acquired to complete a real‐estate development project. Purchase offers contingent upon successful land aggregation are compared to combination offers containing both guaranteed and contingent payments to determine which approach better mitigates holdout. The distribution of gains between developers and landowners is also examined. The results of a series of economic experiments suggest that contingent offers expedite land aggregation but developer payoffs are higher when combination offers are used. The results offer insight to real‐estate developers participating in land aggregation and inform government entities considering the necessity of public‐sector intervention in real‐estate markets to encourage desired development projects.     

Öffentliches und Geheimes

In the second half of 2009, the entire media agenda in Germany was dominated by the swine flu, next to the German Federal Parliament elections. Criticism was voiced in the media against the pharmaceutical industry for lobbying the nationwide swine flu vaccination, which was widely considered nothing but a product of the industry’s lobbying power. In order to avoid the usual interviews with lobbyists, we attempted to apply a new methodological framework approach in analysing lobbying processes and key stakeholders in the public sphere—and outside. Crucial to the diversified approach, which involves quantitative content analysis of media coverage and press releases, are interviews with journalists, lobbyists’ network analysis and internet research on biographies. Although a conspiracy could not be conclusively proven, the results do indicate associations that validate the criticism of the industry’s lobbying activities.     

Coping with extreme climate events: Institutional flocking

The article explores the governance structures that would be needed to cope with extreme and unpredictable climate change. The impacts on the Netherlands of a Gulf Stream collapse in the Northern Atlantic are taken as a case. This hypothetical situation of serious risks and high uncertainties requires governance arrangements with high potentials for rapid and radical change. Using the metaphor of the flocking of birds, we characterize these arrangements as ‘institutional flocking’. Main features of institutional flocking are: (1) flexible opportunities for actors to swiftly respond to change through creative forms of collaboration and participation; (2) rapid and pervasive processes of learning and institutionalization of new knowledge among actors; (3) strong and institutionalized care for coherence and solidarity, to bind the various parts of the ‘flock’. We illustrate and articulate these features for two sectors in Dutch society, urban infrastructure and rural planning.     

Testing economic theories of voter behaviour using micro-data

Three hypotheses often encountered in economic analyses of voter behaviour are tested using an extensive data set derived from six consecutive national election studies in the Netherlands in the period 1971–1986. These hypotheses are: (i) the party choice and turnout decisions are taken sequentially and independently by voters; (ii) social gorups play a central role in the decisionmaking processes in the political sphere; (iii) the effect of individual-level variables on party choice is stable over time. The results provide support for the first hypothesis and partial support for the second, where the specific categorization of individuals to be chosen is a matter that needs further investigation. The third hypothesis is rejected by the data: the relationship between the variables chosen and party choice proved to be unstable.