On the robustness of international portfolio diversification benefits to regime-switching volatility

We examine if the benefits of international portfolio diversification are robust to time-varying asset return volatility. Since diversified portfolios are subject to common cross-country shocks, we focus on the transmission mechanism of such shocks in the presence of regime-switching volatility. Generally, market linkages are stable with little evidence of increased market interdependence in turbulent periods. Furthermore, risk reduction is consistently delivered for the US investor who holds foreign equity.     

Old Wine in a New Bottle: Growth Convergence Dynamics in the EU

In this paper, we explore convergence of real per capita output across the European Union (EU) countries, as well as the transitional behavior of possible underlying factors that are responsible for any convergence or divergence pattern. The new panel convergence methodology developed by Phillips and Sul (2007) is employed in a production function growth accounting approach and data from the Total Economy Database and the Total Economy Growth Accounting Database. The empirical findings suggest that the EU countries form two distinct convergent clubs, exhibiting considerable heterogeneity in the underlying growth factors. These findings should help policy makers in designing appropriate growth-oriented programs as well as in setting priorities in their implementation.     

A model for evaluating the effectiveness of middle managers' training courses: evidence from a major banking organization in Greece

Contemporary management thinking embraces the organizational training theory that sustainable success rests, to a great extent, upon a systematic evaluation of training interventions. However, the evidence indicates that few organizations take adequate steps to assess and analyse the quality and outcomes of their training. The authors seek to develop the existing literature on training evaluation by proposing a new model, specific to management training, which might encourage more and better evaluation by practitioners. Their thesis is that training evaluation is best if it can be based on criteria derived from the objectives of the training and they draw on the management effectiveness literature to inform their proposed model. The study seeks to examine the effect of six evaluation levels – reactions, learning, job behaviour, job performance, organizational team performance and some wider, societal effects – in measuring training interventions with regard to the alterations to learning, transfer and organizational impact. The model was tested with data obtained from 190 middle managers employed by a large banking organization in Greece and the results suggest that there is considerable consistency in the evaluation framework specified. The paper discusses these results and draws conclusions about their practical implications. The study's limitations are considered and some future research needs identified.     

Predictive financial models of the euro area: A new evaluation test

This paper investigates the predictive ability of financial variables for euro area growth. Our forecasts are built from univariate autoregressive and single equation models. Euro area aggregate forecasts are constructed both by employing aggregate variables and by aggregating country-specific forecasts. The forecast evaluation is based on a recently developed test for equal predictive ability between nested models. Employing a monthly dataset from the period between January 1988 and May 2005 and setting the out-of-sample period to be from 2001 onwards, we find that the single most powerful predictor on a country basis is the stock market returns, followed by money supply growth. However, for the euro area aggregate, the set of most powerful predictors includes interest rate variables as well. The forecasts from pooling individual country models outperform those from the aggregate itself for short run forecasts, while for longer horizons this pattern is reversed. Additional benefits are obtained when combining information from a range of variables or combining model forecasts.     

Do Financial Systems Converge?

We apply the new panel convergence methodology developed by Phillips and Sul (2007a ) on 13 financial development indices from the World Bank's Financial Development and Structure database, to test for financial system convergence across a large set of industrial and developing countries. Our results indicate that there is no convergence for either the financial systems as a whole or their main segments. Far from decreasing, the differences in the financial systems of the sample countries seemingly persist or even increase over time. These differences are more pronounced for the stock market segment and private credit by banks, and less so for the bond market segment and bank deposits. Moreover, the convergent clubs for most indices transcend the distinction industrial vs developing countries, as well as the distinction bank‐based vs capital‐market‐based financial systems.     

Decomposing the persistence of real exchange rates

We propose a new methodology for decomposing the persistence of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP). By directly comparing the impulse response function (IRF) of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, where the real exchange rate is Granger caused by a set of candidate variables, with the IRF of the equivalent ARMA model for the real exchange rate, we capture the effects of the Granger-causing variables on the half-life of deviations from PPP. Our empirical results for a set of 20 industrial countries suggest that on average around 50% of the persistence of real exchange rates can be attributed to nominal interest rate differentials, inflation differentials and relative business cycle position with the numenaire country. Finally, we provide confidence intervals for the contributions of the aforementioned variables to the persistence of deviations from PPP by means of Monte Carlo simulations.     

Financial variables and euro area growth: A non-parametric causality analysis

This paper investigates the predictive ability of financial variables for euro area growth through bivariate and multivariate non-parametric Granger causality tests. Apart from assessing the within-country forecasting ability of commonly-employed financial variables, such as the term spread, the stock market returns and the growth of real money supply, we also test for cross-country influences. In this way, we reveal the countries that are more useful in predicting growth in other member countries along with the ones that are more receptive to other countries' financial developments. Our results suggest that financial variables are useful leading indicators for euro area growth at a joint level, albeit at different horizons, ranging from one to six quarters. Our finding of overall increased levels of receptivity among member states provides useful information for policy makers, especially in the case of monetary union such as the euro area.     

Corporate Investment and Information Technologies: The Case of the Greek Refining Industry

The need to improve competitiveness and the enforcement of stringent environmental regulations created the need for the technological modernization of the Greek oil refining industry. The emphasis in this paper is on the pattern of investment decisions, the linkages between the acquisition of production processes and supporting IT applications and on the influence exercised by new technological investment projects on the availability of endogenous resources required to facilitate the adoption of technical change at the firm level. The Greek experience suggests that the role of IT application is becoming increasingly important in large-scale investment projects. The successful implementation of these projects depends, to a large extent, on the learning processes and the accumulation of knowledge at the firm level. These learning processes are directly linked to the specific requirements of the production process and our evidence support that there is a lack of positive feedback between administrative applications and the successful introduction of new manufacturing technologies.     

CREDIT CONSTRAINTS IN THE MARKET FOR CONSUMER DURABLES: EVIDENCE FROM MICRO DATA ON CAR LOANS*

We investigate the significance of borrowing constraints in the market for consumer loans. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey on auto loan contracts we estimate the elasticities of loan demand with respect to interest rate and maturity. We find that, with the exception of high income households, consumers are very responsive to maturity and less responsive to interest rate changes. Both elasticities vary with household income, with the maturity elasticity decreasing and the interest rate elasticity increasing with income. We argue that these results are consistent with the presence of binding credit constraints in the auto loan market.     

Corporate Investment and Information Technologies: The Case of the Greek Refining Industry

The need to improve competitiveness and the enforcement of stringent environmental regulations created the need for the technological modernization of the Greek oil refining industry. The emphasis in this paper is on the pattern of investment decisions, the linkages between the acquisition of production processes and supporting IT applications and on the influence exercised by new technological investment projects on the availability of endogenous resources required to facilitate the adoption of technical change at the firm level. The Greek experience suggests that the role of IT application is becoming increasingly important in large-scale investment projects. The successful implementation of these projects depends, to a large extent, on the learning processes and the accumulation of knowledge at the firm level. These learning processes are directly linked to the specific requirements of the production process and our evidence support that there is a lack of positive feedback between administrative applications and the successful introduction of new manufacturing technologies.