Optimal Returns Policy under Demand Uncertainty

Multiple categories of retail products suffer limited shelf life, demand uncertainty, and, in some cases, long lead times. To provide retailers with an incentive to increase the stocking quantity of such products, manufacturers may offer an option to return unsold items at wholesale or less than wholesale prices. This article extends the additive price-dependent demand model in three ways. First, partial returns are optimal for the manufacturer but do not induce higher stocking quantities compared with when the manufacturer offers no returns. Second, in terms of the effect of investment in demand-enhancing activities, when retailers invest, they set higher resale prices, but an optimal partial returns policy still does not induce higher stocking quantity, whereas when manufacturers invest, the optimal returns policy induces higher stocking quantity. Third, when the manufacturer and retailer have different expectations of demand uncertainty, the retailer's estimate influences the expected profits for both, whereas the manufacturer's estimate has a major impact on its profits only.     

Estimating the clinical effectiveness and value-based price range of erenumab for the prevention of migraine in patients with prior treatment failures: a US societal perspective

Background: Frequent migraine with four or more headache days per month is a common, disabling neurovascular disease. From a US societal perspective, this analysis models the clinical efficacy and estimates the value-based price (VBP) for erenumab, a fully human monoclonal antibody that inhibits the calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor.

Methods: A Markov health state transition model was developed to estimate the incremental costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and value-based price range for erenumab in migraine prevention. The model comprises “on preventive treatment”, “off preventive treatment”, and “death” health states across a 10-year time horizon. The evaluation compared erenumab to no preventive treatment in episodic and chronic migraine patients that have failed at least one preventive therapy. Therapeutic benefits are based on estimated changes in monthly migraine days (MMD) from erenumab pivotal clinical trials and a network meta-analysis of migraine studies. Utilities were estimated using previously published mapping algorithms. A VBP analysis was performed to identify maximum erenumab annual prices at willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of $100,000–$200,000 per QALY. Estimates of VBP under different scenarios such as choice of different comparators, assumptions around inclusion of placebo effect, and exclusion of work productivity losses were also generated.

Results: Erenumab resulted in incremental QALYs of 0.185 vs supportive care (SC) and estimated cost offsets due to reduced MMD of $8,482 over 10 years, with an average duration of treatment of 2.01 years. The estimated VBP at WTP thresholds of $100,000–$200,000 for erenumab compared to SC ranged from $14,238–$23,998. VBP estimates including the placebo effect and excluding work productivity ranged from $7,445–$13,809; increasing to $12,151–$18,589 with onabotulinumtoxinA as a comparator in chronic migraine.

Conclusion: Erenumab is predicted to reduce migraine-related direct and indirect costs, and increase QALYs compared to SC.     

CONSISTENT ESTIMATION OF A LIMITING COVARIANCE MATRIX

This paper provides a consistent and positive semi-definite estimator of the limiting covariance matrix of a nonlinear instrumental variable estimator for a nonlinear simultaneous equation model with selectivity studied in Sapra (1989).     

Do Mandatory Hedge Disclosures Discourage or Encourage Excessive Speculation?

In order to shed some light on the desirability of hedge disclosures, I investigate the consequences of hedge disclosures on a firm's risk management strategy. Several major results emerge from this analysis. First, greater transparency about a firm's derivative activities is not necessarily a panacea for imprudent risk management strategies. I show that such transparency actually induces the firm to take excessive speculative positions in the derivative market. Second, I show that the firm may choose a prudent risk management strategy in the absence of hedge disclosures. However, the selection of a prudent risk management comes at a cost. The firm's production policy is distorted in the absence of hedge disclosures.
These findings suggest that regulators must carefully investigate the trade-offs between production distortions and risk management distortions in evaluating the desirability of mandatory hedge disclosures for all firms.     

Do accounting measurement regimes matter? A discussion of mark-to-market accounting and liquidity pricing

Using a model with banking and insurance sectors, Allen and Carletti show that marking-to-market interacts with liquidity pricing to exacerbate the likelihood of financial contagion between the two sectors. In this discussion, I lay out the main ingredients of their model and explain how they interact with liquidity pricing to generate financial contagion. I then discuss some limitations of their model and propose an interesting extension.     

‘Someone else’s blood’: directed blood donation for neonatal transfusion and parental perceptions of risk

In Canada, parents can give blood exclusively for their child’s transfusion, a process known as directed donation. This qualitative study aimed to understand parents’ perceptions in seeking to provide blood for their newborn. Ten parents whose preterm children were cared for in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit of one Canadian hospital were interviewed. The beliefs and experiences of parents with regard to directed donation were analyzed with reference to their understanding of the risks and benefits of this form of transfusion. Interview data revealed that parents had little knowledge or understanding of the medical benefits and risks of directed donation and based their decision to seek this type of transfusion largely on emotional grounds. In addition, despite their preference for directed donation, most infants whose parents were interviewed in this study, for practical reasons could not be given this type of transfusion. This may have magnified risk perceptions of non‐directed transfusions. Parents need to be better informed about the medical risks and benefits of directed donation and the actual likelihood that their child will be able to receive this type of transfusion.