Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study

This paper analyzes the feasibility of a monetary union in East Asia focusing on business cycles synchronization. Considering the critical role of trade integration in the East Asian integration process, we study whether East Asian countries are characterized by business cycle synchronization. The related empirical literature dedicated to business cycles synchronization in East Asia does not lead to firm conclusion. In this paper, we suggest a different empirical approach allowing, contrary to the previous studies, to detect endogenously structural changes in the comovement process between outputs. We apply a new measure based on the time-varying coherence function. Such a measure not only detects comovement dynamics but it distinguishes also this dynamics between short- and long-term. We compute also cohesion statistics to test if countries tend to be more synchronized or not. The main finding of this paper is that the increase in bilateral trade inside the East Asian region significantly improves long-run business cycle synchronization. The short-run influence of bilateral trade shows mixed results. Indeed, short-run cycles remain significantly influenced both by shocks hitting each country and by economic policy responses. As a consequence, more bilateral trade and convergence in economic policy constitute two complementary processes to promote business cycle synchronization.     

Twenty years of economic transition in Russia: Results and lessons learned

The present article studies the events and processes that took place during the socioeconomic transformation in Russia. The positive and negative consequences of the reforms are considered, and their macroeconomic results are assessed. The article reveals the causes of the weak points in the present-day Russian economy and focuses on mistakes and wrong solutions that should be avoided in the future.     

DISPARITIÉS RÉGIONALES ET SCOLARITÉ EN AGRICUTURE

Une analyse graphique dégage, en 1961, pour ?agriculture québécoise et ontarienne, une relation entre la productivité moyenne en valeur de travail et le taux de scolarité de la population rurale agricole masculine, au niveau régional. La variable scolarité est introduite dans une fonction agrégée de production pour la province de Québec et son effet sur la production s'avère significatif. Les coefficients de régression de la variable scolarité et des autres, variables sont utilisés pour analyser les différences relatives de productivité du travail entre la région des environs de Montréal et la région de la Gaspésie-Côte-Nord. Comparativement à une analyse antérieure dont la scolaritéétait absente, celle-ci explique 6% de la différence de productivité. ?effet du taux de scolarité ne modifie guère les effets des autres variables, excepté celui de la région, qui est diminué du montant expliqué par la scolarité. La faible contribution du taux de scolaritéà?explication des différences régionales de productivité soulève la question ?un possible sous-investissement dans le capital humain en agriculture. REGIONAL DISPARITIES AND EDUCATION IN AGRICULTURE –A graphic analysis, at the regional level, in 1961, reveals in Quebec and Ontario agriculture, a relationship between the average value productivity of labour and the level of education of the agricultural rural male labor force. The education variable is introduced in the aggregate production function for Quebec agriculture and found to have a significant effect on production. The regression coefficient of the education variable is used, together with the other regression coefficients, to analyse the relative gap of labour productivity between the Montreal (environs) region and the Gaspe-Côte-Nord region. In comparison with a previous analysis excluding education, it is found that differences in education explain 6% of the gap, without altering much the effects of the other variables, except the regional effect, which is reduced by 6%. The small contribution of education to the explanation of the regional disparities in agricultural labor productivity might reflect the under investment in human capital.     

Innovation and the Quality of Labour Factor: An empirical investigation in the French food industry

The aim of our paper is to analyse the determinants of the innovation propensity of the firm. Among the numerous works devoted to this subject, the interest of our research is, firstly, to use a direct measurement of innovation, instead of the usual proxies, as R&D expenditures and patents statistics, secondly, to emphasise the role of labour factor quality as a major determinant of innovation. We first build a definition of labour factor quality, based on a double dimension: individual skill level and functional distribution of jobs inside the firm. At the end we consider that each job category can be involved in the innovation process, at the different steps of it: conception, decision, implementation. To explain the innovation propensity at the firm level, our logit model takes into account four explanatory dimensions: the quality of labour factor employed inside the firm, the firm structural characteristics (as size, for instance), the sectoral market structures and, finally, the quality of labour factor employed inside the firm sector, as a proxy for the R&D spillover effect. We use some individual firms data, including a direct measurement of innovation, that distinguished between several types: radical vs. incremental and product vs. process vs. organisational innovation. The French food industries with its 500.000 employees and 42 sectors, mostly composed of small firms, are our empirical field. The results emphasise the influence of the usual firm structure variables. Firm size, particularly, is very clearly positively related to the innovation propensity. At the same time, some more original facts appears, such as the influence of firm status: after controlling the sectoral influence, co-operative firms seem to innovate less than private ones. Labour factor quality appears to play a very significant role by itself, but mostly, helps us to analyse and specify the influence of other variables on innovation. At the end, it shows that innovation is a multiphase process, and that the relative importance of each phase greatly depends on the kind of innovation that is considered. Conception is the most important phase in the radical innovation case, which greatly involves formally high-skilled job categories as R&D employees or engineers. At the same time, the implementation phase, which seems to be particularly important in the incremental innovation case, emphasises the role of the intermediate categories know-how.At the end we can say that small industrial firms appear to be less innovative for two reasons: the usual scale effect argument is correct only in the process innovation case in relation to the capital intensity level. In some other cases as radical innovation, small firms are less innovative because of their job structure and particularly because of the lack of formal scientific capabilities (as the R&D personnel's one).     

Une comparaison entre divers établissements de services de première ligne en santé au Québec (Canada)

This paper presents an empirical and comparative investigation of four types of organizations providing primary health care services: private clinics, community centres, health coops and community associations. Case studies were done following a common design for data collecting and analysis, taking into account the organizations' context of creation, their institutional dimension (structure of power and political system), their organizational dimension (co-ordination and production of health care), and their main paths of development. Results show that organizations present many differences when it comes to delivering universal, accessible, and complete health care services. Non-profit organizations offer more promising perspectives for patients and health care workers by encouraging them to participate in their management. Health coops' openness depends on their nature: while consumer coops encourage patient participation, producer coops allow employees to make decisions. In this sense, patients and employees in collective health care organizations seem to have more political advantages than in private organizations.     

Empirical Analysis of Indirect Network Effects in the Market for Personal Digital Assistants

We present a framework to measure empirically the size of indirect network effects in high-technology markets with competing incompatible technology standards. These indirect network effects arise due to inter-dependence in demand for hardware and compatible software. By modeling the joint determination of hardware sales and software availability in the market, we are able to describe the nature of demand inter-dependence and to measure the size of the indirect network effects. We apply the model to price and sales data from the industry for personal digital assistants (PDAs) along with the availability of software titles compatible with each PDA hardware standard. Our empirical results indicate significant indirect network effects. By July 2002, the network effect explains roughly 22% of the log-odds ratio of the sales of all Palm O/S compatible PDA-s to Microsoft O/S compatible PDA-s, where the remaining 78% reflects price and model features. We also use our model estimates to study the growth of the installed bases of Palm and Microsoft PDA hardware, with and without the availability of compatible third party software. We find that lack of third party software negatively impacts the evolution of the installed hardware bases of both formats. These results suggest PDA hardware firms would benefit from investing resources in increasing the provision of software for their products. We then compare the benefits of investments in software with investments in the quality of hardware technology. This exercise helps disentangle the potential for incremental hardware sales due to hardware quality improvement from that of positive feedback due to market software provision.     

Recent developments in EC USSR commercial and economic relations

Conclusion Trade with the Soviet Union represents only a small part of total Community trade (3.5 % of EC imports and 2.7 % of EC exports in 1990). EC imports from the Soviet Union increased moderately between 1989 and 1990 as well as between the first six months of 1990 and the corresponding period of 1991, whilst EC exports decreased sharply as a result of hard currency shortage in the Soviet Union.The CMEA and Soviet disintegration processes will lead to a substantial reorientation of trade flows. This development has already begun with large increases of trade between the EC and the Central and Eastern European countries.International assistance to the USSR mainly consists of export credits. Community assistance involves a large proportion of grants and technical assistance. The cost of assistance measures envisaged so far remains limited for Western countries.The economic effects of assistance would be enhanced if effective coordination was implemented among the providers. Adequate mechanisms such as triangular operations or the untying of assistance would be required in order to avoid crowding out traditional suppliers from Soviet markets.