State lottery in the lab: an experiment in external validity

Experimental Economics - In this study, we conduct a laboratory experiment in which the subjects make choices between real-world lottery tickets typically purchased by lottery customers. In this...     

Double continuation regions for American and Swing options with negative discount rate in Lévy models

In this paper, we study perpetual American call and put options in an exponential Lévy model. We consider a negative effective discount rate that arises in a number of financial applications including stock loans and real options, where the strike price can potentially grow at a higher rate than the original discount factor. We show that in this case a double continuation region arises and we identify the two critical prices. We also generalize this result to multiple stopping problems of Swing type, that is, when successive exercise opportunities are separated by i.i.d. random refraction times. We conduct an extensive numerical analysis for the Black–Scholes model and the jump‐diffusion model with exponentially distributed jumps.     

Consumer relationship fading

This paper explores the phenomenon of consumer relationship fading with a series of three adjacent studies. Analyzing two longitudinal behavioral datasets, Study 1 shows that about one-third of the relationships could be described as fading. Drawing on prior work in the marriage disaffection literature, Study 2 defines relationship fading for the consumer marketing context as a process of gradual decline in consumers' intention to continue their relationship with a brand, generally manifested in negative feelings toward the brand, diminishing frequency and/or volume of transactions with it, and initiation of switching intentions. It further identifies disillusion, disaffection, and crossroads as three distinct fading stages, and outlines boundary conditions. Study 3 observes relationship fading through a diary study approach and finds attitude movement in both positive and negative directions between the stages. Further, while positive attitudes generally decline over the course of the fading trajectory, negative emotions peak at the penultimate fading stage and then level off at the final, crossroads stage. By defining and analyzing consumer relationship fading, we improve understanding of an under-researched, large segment of consumers.     

Cost efficiency and endogenous regulatory choices: evidence from the transport industry in France

Journal of Regulatory Economics - We study the impact of different regulatory designs on the cost efficiency of operators providing a public service, exploiting data from the French transport...     

PRODUCTIVE RECESSIONS AND JOBLESS RECOVERIES

We explore international variation in business cycle dynamics to gain insights into the recent pattern of robust productivity growth during downturns (productive recessions) and weak employment growth during recoveries (jobless recoveries) seen in some advanced economies. We find that sectoral change is associated with productive recessions but that labor market rigidity can impede reallocation and reduce the probability of a productive recession. We also find evidence of a link between productive recessions and jobless recoveries and that recessions dominated by reductions to employment, rather than changes in average employee hours, are more likely to be associated with jobless recoveries. (JELF44, E32)     

Twenty-year review of South African fiscal policy: A tale of two sustainabilities

In 2014 democracy in South Africa was 20 years old. The democratic government in 1994 inherited both a high and increasing public debt/gross domestic product ratio and significant development backlogs. The government had to establish fiscal sustainability, yet also pursue development in a sustainable way. This article explores the government's performance in reconciling fiscal sustainability with sustainable development. The article shows that fiscal policy has been sustainable over the 20 years, with some risks appearing towards the end, and that the government pursued sustainable development through reallocating resources within the budget and by spending more in real terms. Three phases can be identified: 1994–2000, 2001–08 and 2009–13. However, poor service delivery and low levels of government investment during the 20 years threaten to undermine economic growth. Lower growth consequently threatens the sustainability of both fiscal policy and development, which, in turn, again undermines growth prospects. Hence, the article also identifies key future challenges.     

The Role of Media Coverage in Explaining Stock Market Fluctuations: Insights for Strategic Financial Communication

This study investigates the reciprocal relationships between the fluctuation of the closing prices of three companies listed on the Amsterdam exchange index, namely ING, Philips and Shell and online media coverage related to these firms for a period of two years (2014–2015). Automated content analysis methods were employed to analyze sentiment and emotionality and to identify corporate topics related to the companies. A positive relation of the amount of coverage and emotionality with the fluctuation of stock prices was detected for Shell and Philips. In addition, corporate topics were found to positively Granger cause stock price fluctuation, particularly for Philips. The study advances past research in showing that the prediction of stock price fluctuation based on media coverage can be improved by including sentiment, emotionality, and corporate topics. The findings inform strategic communication, and particularly investor relations, in suggesting that media attention, sentiment, and certain corporate topics are crucial when managing media relations and with regard to securing a fair evaluation of listed companies. Furthermore, the innovative research methods are useful for researchers and practitioners alike in showcasing how media coverage related to firms and their stock fluctuations can be identified and analyzed in a reproducible, hands-on and efficient manner.     

Income and Price Elasticities of Demand in South Africa: An Application of the Linear Expenditure System

This paper investigates the expenditure patterns of South African households using detailed cross‐sectional expenditure and price data that varies across region and time. Linear expenditure system parameter estimates are used to calculate income and price elasticities for a number of product categories at different points of the income distribution. We find substantial variation in the price and income elasticities of demand for items across the income distribution, with the bottom quartile being extremely sensitive to increases in the price of food and clothing items, and the top quartile being as sensitive as households in developed countries.     

THE IMPACT OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN COMPETITION ON SECTORAL GROWTH: A CROSS‐COUNTRY ANALYSIS

This paper examines the impact of competition on the total factor productivity (TFP) of 21 manufacturing sectors in eighteen OECD countries over the period of time 1990–2006. We assume that the source of TFP growth can be either domestic or foreign innovation or technology transfer from the technological frontier. Trade openness, R&D, and human capital can have two effects: a direct effect on TFP (e.g., through innovation) and an indirect effect depending on the productivity gap between a given country and the technological frontier. We find that tougher domestic competition is always associated with higher sectoral productivity. Both import and export penetrations are positively associated with an increase of TFP. However, the channels through which higher TFP is materialized are different: export penetration works through level effect, while import penetration acts mainly when conditional on the level of technological development. The economical magnitude of the effect is not trivial.     

The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis on Emerging Markets： Quantitative Identification of Crisis in Continent-based Regions

This paper focuses on a direct quantitative identification of crisis periods in selected emerging stock markets from four continent-based regions of Europe, Latin America, East Asia, and Middle East and North Africa （MENA）, in the context of an influence of the 2007 U.S. subprime financial crisis. The 17 emerging stock markets and, for comparison, the U.S. stock market are investigated. A statistical method of dividing market states into bullish and bearish markets, based on monthly logarithmic returns of major stock market indexes, is employed. The analyzed sample period begins in January 2003 and ends in December 2013. As there is no unanimity in the literature about the crisis periods in the continent-based regions, a formal statistical identification of crises is worthwhile to conduct. Furthermore, the effect of increasing cross-market correlations in the crisis compared to the pre-crisis period in the context of contagion is examining. To address this issue, both standard contemporaneous cross-correlations and volatility-adjusted cross-correlations are applied. The results are consistent with the literature and confn＇m that tests for contagion based on cross-market correlations are problematic due to the bias introduced by changing volatility in market returns. As contagion can be confused with globalization, the globalization tests in the group of international investigated markets are employed. The results generally do not confirm a global world market integration effect, i.e. there is no reason to reject the research hypothesis of no globalization during the 2007-2009 financial crisis.