The upstairs market for large-block transactions: analysis and measurement of price effects

This article develops a model of the upstairs market where ordersize, beliefs and prices are determined endogenously. We testthe model's predictions using unique data for 5,625 equity tradesduring the period 1985 to 1992 that are known to be upstairstransactions and are identified as either buyer or seller initiated.We find that price movements prior to the trade date are significantlypositively related to trade size, consistent with informationleakage as the block is 'shopped' upstairs. Further, the temporaryprice impact or liquidity effect is a concave function of ordersize, which may result from upstairs intermediation.     

India and the Global Economy

India’s booming knowledge-based sectors demonstrate the power of globalization to transform developing economies. For India, however, these industries are just part of its contribution to the global economy. For a more nuanced picture of India’s international economic position, this paper places India in international and historical context, examines its links to the world through trade, labor, and capital, and outlines some critical challenges facing the country. What emerges is a more complex picture of India -- a nation with far more to offer than skilled programmers but which must address problems of poverty, infrastructure, and governance to achieve its potential. JEL Classification O530     

Dividend yields and stock returns: Implications of abnormal January returns

This study examines the empirical relation between stock returns and (long-run) dividend yields. The findings show that much of the phenomenon is due to a nonlinear relation between dividend yields and returns in January. Regression coefficients on dividend yields, which some models predict should be non-zero due to differential taxation of dividends and capital gains, exhibit a significant January seasonal, even when controlling for size. This finding is significant since there are no provisions in the after-tax asset pricing models that predict the tax differential is more important in January than in other months.     

What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns?

This paper analyzes the risks and returns of different types of real estate-related firms traded on the New York and American stock exchanges (NYSE and AMEX). We examine the relation between real estate stock portfolio returns and returns on a standard appraisal-based index, and find that lagged values of traded real estate portfolio returns can predict returns on the appraisal-based index after controlling for persistence in the appraisal series. The stock market reflects information about real estate markets that is later imbedded in infrequent property appraisals. Additional analysis suggests that the differences in the return and risk characteristics across different types of traded real estate firms can be explained in part by appealing to real estate market fundamentals relating to the degree of dependence of the real estate firm upon rental cash flows from existing buildings. These findings highlight the heterogeneity of securitized real estate-related firms.     

The economic rationale for the nature and extent of corporate financial disclosure regulation: A critical assessment

The regulatory framework for corporate financial disclosure has been the subject of a large literature, most of which has focused on the economic rationale for disclosure requirements. This extant economic analysis has not led to any definitive conclusions regarding the necessity for disclosure regulation nor has it provided public policy guidance as to the nature and extent of required corporate financial disclosure. It is evident that broader-based analysis and research incorporating relevant social and political (as well as economic) factors is necessary to gauge appropriate public policy for financial information disclosure.     

Stock return seasonalities and the tax-loss selling hypothesis: Analysis of the arguments and Australian evidence

A ‘tax-loss selling’ hypothesis has frequently been advanced to explain the ‘January effect’ reported in this issue by Keim. This paper concludes that U.S. tax laws do not unambiguously predict such an effect. Since Australia has similar tax laws but a July–June tax year, the hypothesis predicts a small-firm July premium. Australian returns show pronounced December–January and July–August seasonals, and a premium for the smallest-firm decile of about four percent per month across all months. This contrasts with the U.S. data in which the small-firm premium is concentrated in January. We conclude that the relation between the U.S. tax year and the January seasonal may be more correlation than causation.     

The Relation between Stock Market Movements and NYSE Seat Prices

Exchange seat prices are widely reported and followed as measures of market sentiment. This paper analyzes the information content of NYSE seat prices using: (1) annual seat prices from 1869 to 1998, and (2) the complete record of trades, bids and offers for the seat market from 1973 to 1994. Seat market volumes have predictive power regarding future stock market returns, consistent with a model where seat market activity is a proxy for unobserved factors affecting expected returns. We find abnormally large price movements in seats prior to October 1987, consistent with the hypothesis that seat prices capture market sentiment.