How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach

This paper presents a simple new method for measuring “wealth effects” on aggregate consumption. The method exploits the stickiness of consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption “habits”) to distinguish between immediate and eventual wealth effects. In U.S. data, we estimate that the immediate (next quarter) marginal propensity to consume from a $1 change in housing wealth is about 2 cents, with a final eventual effect around 9 cents, substantially larger than the effect of shocks to financial wealth. We argue that our method is preferable to cointegration‐based approaches, because neither theory nor evidence supports faith in the existence of a stable cointegrating vector.     

LESSONS FROM THREE DECADES OF GREEN REVOLUTION IN THE PHILIPPINES

The purpose of the current paper is to assess the changing contributions of successive generations of modern varieties of rice (MV) to yield increase and stability and the changes in total factor productivity (TFP) in irrigated, rainfed, and upland ecosystems in the Philippines. We found that the yield increase in irrigated ecosystem has been by far the highest, which can be attributed to the diffusion of pest‐ and disease‐resistant MV. The contribution of MV to yield increase in the rainfed ecosystem has been less significant, but much more compared with that of upland ecosystem. The rainfed and upland ecosystems have experienced an upward trend in yield, albeit slowly, because of the diffusion of improved traditional varieties and MV suitable to adverse production environments. The contribution of MV cum irrigation has accounted for approximately 50% of the growth of TFP in Central Luzon.     

PRODUCTIVITY IMPACT OF THE MODERN VARIETIES OF RICE IN INDIA

The present paper analyzed the long‐term yield growth and total factor productivity (TFP) growth by applying Tornqvist‐Theil index method for two periods, namely, 1970–85 (early Green Revolution) and 1986–2000 (late Green Revolution), for major rice‐growing states of India. The yield data shows an increasing long‐term growth trend throughout the Green Revolution period in irrigated states where modern variety (MV) adoption was nearly complete. However, yield advances started to slow down for intensive irrigated rice systems in the 1990s, whereas rainfed ecosystems have increased during the late Green Revolution period. The domestic spillovers of MV from irrigated to rainfed states is likely to be one of the contributing factors to increased TFP growth in ranifed areas after the 1980s. This implies that the MV of rice developed for irrigated ecosystems have also benefited substantially the rainfed‐dominant eastern Indian states in the long run where partial irrigation facilities such as shallow tube wells were created after the mid‐1980s.     

HOW REVOLUTIONARY IS THE “NERICA REVOLUTION”? EVIDENCE FROM UGANDA

A new high‐yielding upland rice variety known as New Rice for Africa (NERICA) has been widely recognized as a promising technology for addressing the food shortage in sub‐Saharan Africa. However, there has been no on‐farm yield data to support this optimism. The present study attempts to assess the actual and potential yield of NERICA in Uganda where it has been introduced recently. We found that NERICA's yield is higher (2.5 tons) for farmers who had rice‐growing experience than those who had no previous experience (1.7 tons). These findings strongly indicate that strengthening training, extension, and other supporting systems is the key to the success of the “NERICA revolution” in this country.     

CLUSTER‐BASED INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT: A VIEW FROM EAST ASIA*

In this paper I attempt to formulate an endogenous model of cluster‐based industrial development, based on case studies in Japan, Taiwan, and China, where the initiation phase is followed by the quantity expansion phase through imitation and subsequently by the quality improvement phase through innovation. I argue that such a process of industrial development is supported by the development of market transactions among assemblers, parts‐suppliers, and merchants, and the stimulation of innovation made possible by the benefits of industrial clusters arising from the geographical concentration of a large number of enterprises and a variety of human resources in a small geographical area.     

RICE GREEN REVOLUTION IN ASIA AND ITS TRANSFERABILITY TO AFRICA: AN INTRODUCTION

Drawing on the experiences of Asian countries, we attempt to identify the transferability of Asian Green Revolution to sub‐Saharan Africa by examining whether there is a common set of factors affecting rice yields in the two regions. We have attempted to propose the strategy to realize a Green Revolution in sub‐Saharan Africa based on lessons learned from the comparative studies included in this special volume.