Risk Interpretation of the CAPM's Beta: Evidence from a New Research Method

This study tests the validity of using the CAPM beta as a risk control in cross‐sectional accounting and finance research. We recognize that high‐risk stocks should experience either very good or very bad returns more frequently compared to low‐risk stocks, that is, high‐risk stocks should cluster in the tails of the cross‐sectional return distribution. Building on this intuition, we test the risk interpretation of the CAPM's beta by examining if high‐beta stocks are more likely than low‐beta stocks to experience either very high or very low returns. Our empirical results indicate that beta is a strong predictor of large positive and large negative returns, which confirms that beta is a valid empirical risk measure and that researchers should use beta as a risk control in empirical tests. Further, we show that because the relation between beta and returns is U‐shaped, that is, high betas predict both very high and very low returns, linear cross‐sectional regression models, for example, Fama–MacBeth regressions, will fail on average to reject the null hypothesis that beta does not capture risk. This result explains why previous studies find no significant cross‐sectional relation between beta and returns.     

Does transition to IFRS substantially affect key financial ratios in shareholder-oriented common law regimes? Evidence from the UK

This paper provides evidence of how a transition to IFRS affects key financial ratios and the pertinent financial statement items. Building on Lantto and Sahlström's (2009) evidence from creditor-oriented code law regimes, we examine the impact of IFRS transition on listed companies in the shareholder-oriented common law regime of the UK. The study contributes two insights: First – despite their similarities – conversion from the UK General Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) to IFRS leads to substantial differences in key financial ratios. These even surpass differences reported by companies in creditor-oriented code law regimes. We find that medians of profitability ratios increased substantially: Operating Income Margin (OPM) increased by 10.8%, Return on Equity (ROE) by 27.0%, and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) by 14.4%. The Current Ratio (CR) and Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio also exhibit significant but less drastic changes of 4.2% and − 2.9%, respectively. Second, differences in shareholder-oriented common law regimes have the same causes as in creditor-oriented code law regimes, i.e., an increase in Operating Income, Net Income, Current Liabilities and Invested Capital, as well as a decrease in Shareholder Equity.     

A decentralized solution to the car pooling problem

Existing carpool optimization techniques based on the centralized approach serve policy-makers’ goals, but neglect the realities of participants. Moreover, absent strict enforcement, participants often ignore centralized solutions and maximize their own savings. We present a new heuristic, formulated and tested on real-world, and simulated car pooling problem instances, that mimics a decentralized carpool self-organization process. Our findings reveal system-wide savings similar to centralized models, and a potential strategy for improving carpool utilization.     

Predictability of stock markets with disequilibrium trading. A commentary paper

The paper focuses on the problem of predictability of stock market returns with disequilibrium trading. It is shown that the predictability of returns may be the consequence of quantity constraints appearing in the markets due to the imposition of administrative restrictions on trade. A relevant test of predictability for the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) based on information referring to disequilibrium states occurrence is proposed. The empirical results of its application to the WSE on a sample containing session-to-session observations from the period January 1995 to December 1999 strongly support the hypothesis of predictability.     

Does liquidity risk explain low firm performance following seasoned equity offerings?

A seasoned equity offering (SEO) can improve a firm’s stock liquidity and lower its cost of capital. This paper examines whether SEO firms achieve a liquidity gain and the sources of this gain. It explores the role of liquidity risk in explaining SEO long-run performance. The evidence shows that SEO firms experience significant post-issue improvements in liquidity and reductions in liquidity risk. Size and book-to-market matching fails to control for these liquidity effects, generating the low long-term post-SEO performance documented in the literature. After adjusting for liquidity risk, SEO firms show normal long-term performance.     

BRITISH EUROSCEPTICISM – A VIEW FROM A CLASSICAL LIBERAL IN NEW EUROPE

This article argues that the classical liberal idea of federalism has been hijacked by socialists in Europe. At the same time, it is argued that classical liberals should not become Eurosceptics.     

Intended Use of Proceeds,Underwriter Quality and the Long‐run Performance of SEOs in the UK

We document that prospectus disclosure of (i) the motives for a seasoned equity offering, and (ii) the choice of underwriter explain the long‐run performance of equity issuers in the UK. Firms citing investment needs show no abnormal performance after the offering and have higher investment rates post‐issue compared to the period before the offering. Issuers that state general corporate purposes and recapitalisation motives underperform, have similar investment rates pre‐ and post‐issue, and their leverage tends to increase after the offering. Further, consistent with the certifying role of underwriters, equity issues underwritten by high‐quality brokers show no evidence of post‐issue abnormal returns, but offerings taken public by low‐quality underwriters exhibit negative abnormal performance. Together, our results document the significant role that prospectus information on the intended use of offering proceeds and on the underwriter play in predicting issuers post‐offering performance in the UK.     

Analyst Research Activity During the COVID-19 Pandemic

This paper documents that, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, analysts increase their research activity and significantly revise their forecasts when compared to the pre-pandemic period. Uncertainty-adjusted forecast errors are either comparable or smaller during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. Investor attention and price reactions to analyst forecast revisions are higher during the pandemic and the effect is stronger in periods where investors actively search for information about firms. During the pandemic, investors value analyst price discovery role more than their role in interpreting public information. Jointly, the results suggest that analysts play an important information intermediation role during the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Analyst revenue forecast reporting and the quality of revenues and expenses

We decompose earnings quality into revenue and expense quality and examine their associations with analyst propensity to supplement their earnings forecasts with revenue forecasts. Analysts report more revenue forecasts to I/B/E/S when expense quality is low to compensate for the low accuracy of their earnings estimates, which has a positive association with expense quality. Expense quality is unassociated with revenue forecast accuracy, thus revenue forecasts become increasingly useful for valuing firms when expense quality is low. Analysts report fewer revenue forecasts when revenue quality is low because both earnings and revenue forecast accuracy decline as revenue quality deteriorates. To control for endogeneity, we use firm‐fixed effects to control for unobserved time‐invariant heterogeneity across firms, instrumental variables regressions and regression in changes.