Risk-based capital standards, deposit insurance, and procyclicality

This article shows that risk-based deposit insurance premiums generate smaller procyclical effects than do risk-based capital requirements. Thus, Basel II's procyclical impact can be reduced by integrating risk-based deposit insurance. If deposit insurance is structured as a moving average of contracts, its procyclical effects can be decreased further. Empirical illustrations of this are presented for 42 banks over the period 1987 to 1996. The results confirm that lengthening the contracts' maturities intertemporally smooths premiums but raises the average premium level needed to compensate the insurer for greater systematic risk. The distribution of risk-based premiums across banks is skewed.     

On pricing kernels and finite-state variable Heath Jarrow Morton models

Once a pricing kernel is established, bond prices and all other interest rate claims can be computed. Alternatively, the pricing kernel can be deduced from observed prices of bonds and selected interest rate claims. Examples of the former approach include the celebrated Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985b) model and the more recent model of Constantinides (1992). Examples of the latter include the Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) model and the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton paradigm (1992) (hereafter HJM). In general, these latter models are not Markov. Fortunately, when suitable restrictions are imposed on the class of volatility structures of forward rates, then finite-state variable HJM models do emerge. This article provides a linkage between the finite-state variable HJM models, which use observables to induce a pricing kernel, and the alternative approach, which proceeds directly to price after a complete specification of a pricing kernel. Given such linkages, we are able to explicitly reveal the relationship between state-variable models, such as Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross, and the finite-state variable HJM models. In particular, our analysis identifies the unique map between the set of investor forecasts about future levels of the drift of the pricing kernel and the manner by which these forecasts are revised, to the shape of the term structure and its volatility. For an economy with square root innovations, the exact mapping is made transparent.     

Can a stock exchange improve corporate behavior? Evidence from firms' migration to premium listings in Brazil

Because Brazil's legal system lacked protection for minority shareholders and trading of Brazilian shares flowed to U.S. exchanges, in 2001 the São Paulo Stock Exchange, Bovespa, created three premium exchange listings that require more stringent shareholder protections. This paper examines the effects of a commitment to improved corporate disclosure and governance by firms' voluntary migration to these premium listings. Our analysis finds that a firm's migration brings positive abnormal returns to its shareholders, particularly when its shares did not have a prior cross-listing on a U.S. exchange and also when the firm chooses a premium listing with the highest standards. Migration to a premium listing also leads to a significant increase in the trading volume of non-voting shares. Firms that choose a premium listing tend to have growth opportunities that they finance with subsequent seasoned equity offerings. These results suggest that a premium listing is a mechanism for bonding to improved corporate behavior that can be less costly than cross-listing on a U.S. exchange.     

The Cost of Deposit Insurance for Privately Held Banks: A Market Comparable Approach

Previous empirical studies that use an option pricing model to estimate deposit insurance costs have been limited to banks that issue publicly traded securities: a bank's security prices are used to infer its risk characteristics. However, if deposit insurance costs are needed for privately held banks, as would be the case under a system of risk-based insurance premiums, then an alternative method is required. This paper presents a “market comparable” approach for valuing private banks' deposit insurance. The approach first uses information on public depository institutions to identify the statistical relationships between a bank's supervisory accounting data and its risk characteristics derived from equity market data. Second, it uses these relationships to predict the risk characteristics of a private depository institution based on its supervisory accounting data. This approach is applied to over 7000 private banks and thrifts to estimate their risk characteristics and their implied risk-neutral and physical probabilities of insolvency. For the vast majority of institutions, these risk characteristics and insolvency probabilities are within a reasonable range.     

Identifying the dynamics of real interest rates and inflation: evidence using survey data

In the context of an equilibrium asset-pricing model, the dynamicsof the instantaneous real interest rate and the instantaneousrate of expected inflation are estimated. Unlike previous models,we allow real interest rates and inflation to be mutually dependentprocesses. The model is estimated as a state-space system thatincludes observations on various maturity Treasury bills andNBER-ASA survey forecasts of inflation. Over the period 1968-1988,we find evidence that instantaneous real interest rates andexpected inflation are significantly negatively correlated.Real interest rates also display greater volatility and weakermean reversion than expected inflation.     

Bank Deposit Rate Clustering: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Like security prices, retail deposit interest rates cluster around integers and "even" fractions. However, explanations for security price clustering are incompatible with deposit rate clustering. A theory based on the limited recall of retail depositors is proposed. It predicts that banks tend to set rates at integers and that rates are "sticky" at these levels. The propensity for integer rates increases with the level of wholesale interest rates and deposit market concentration. When banks set noninteger rates, rates are more likely to be just above, rather than just below, integers. The paper finds substantial empirical support for the theory's implications.