Funding a PAYG pension system: the case of Italy

Italy is characterised by a mature pay‐as‐you‐go social security system and by particularly adverse population projections. Given these trends, the social security contribution rate is expected to increase above its current high level. This hinders the development of employer‐provided pension funds and introduces a significant wedge between labour cost and earnings that discourages both labour demand and labour supply. Any proposal to reduce payroll taxes and to reform the system in the direction of partial funding has to cope with the state of Italian public finances. Italy has to comply with the Stability and Growth Pact that imposes constraints on budget deficit and debt trends. Using micro data from the Bank of Italy's Survey of Household Income and Wealth and official population projections, we estimate future employment trends under different demographic and macroeconomic scenarios and compute the cost of the transition. We show that it would be substantially reduced if positive effects on employment were induced by the payroll tax reduction.     

Massenentlassungen – Rechtsvergleichende Analyse der Bedingungen in Europa und den USA

International corporations do mass layoffs preferably in countries with rather low employment protection regulations. This paper analyses and compares the different employment protection regulation regimes in the US, Germany, France, and UK with regard to their regulations of mass layoffs. Our study concludes that there is a larger degree of freedom of contract in the US, however, our analyses does not confirm the usual assumption that employees in the US are legally less protected from mass layoffs than in Europe.     

Wage bargaining and inflation

This paper investigates the issue of time inconsistency of monetary policy in a game with perfect information and infinite repetitions. The private sector is described by a wage negotiation process between a labour union and a firm. Unlike in the standard literature, the model has the feature that as the distortion of the economy gets larger, namely as the bargaining power of the union increases, the reputational equilibrium with low inflation becomes more likely to occur. This finding is consistent with the observation that higher levels of the labour cost are not typically associated with higher levels of inflation.     

How does public service motivation affect teacher self-reported performance in an education system? Evidence from an empirical analysis in Italy

Quality & Quantity - This paper deals with self-reported teacher performance, and the starting point is the relationship between teacher performance and the main determining factor, public...     

Wage Indexation, Employment and Inflation

Price versus productivity-indexing is considered in a model of monetary policy with incomplete information and wage bargaining. In a perfectly price-indexed economy, the inflationary bias due to lack of credibility is eliminated. However, productivity-indexing is more appropriate to dampen macroeconomic fluctuations that are caused by real disturbances. We show that productivity-indexing alone guarantees both price and employment stability, provided the government's reputation is good enough and the union's bargaining power is not too strong. This reduces the degree of price indexation as the union becomes weaker and the government's reputation improves. Productivity-indexing is desirable with volatile productivity processes and weak unions.
JEL classification : E 24; E 52     

Firm life cycle stages and earnings management

We provide evidence that the differences in economic growth and stability of firms during different stages of their life cycle encourage managers to manage the reported earnings differently to achieve their goals. Our findings support the expectation that managers adjust the reported earnings upward using positive discretionary accruals during the introductory and decline stages of firm life cycle. The upward adjustment of reported earnings during the introductory stage enables them to achieve the objective of sending positive signals on firm performance when the firm is in a formative stage, and also provides a better base for prediction of future earnings. The upward adjustment of reported earnings during the decline stage are expected to enhance firm’s life, which would enable managers to take remedial actions to improve firm performance, especially when the firm is in a distress situation. On the other hand, our findings show that managers may consider using negative discretionary accruals during the growth and maturity stages so that they can save some earnings for use during later years when firm performance compared to market expectations is weak. The managers are, however, not likely to adjust the reported earnings downward when the reported earnings fall short of market expectations. Additionally, we find that large institutional shareholdings perform effective monitoring and discourage managers to use discretionary accruals because their use may result in lower reliability of reported earnings.