Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the TICKs: A Quantile Regression Approach

This study investigates how Taiwan, India, China, and Korea (TICKs) set interest rates in the context of policy reaction functions using a quantile-based approach. Our results indicate the tendency of a milder response to inflation at low interest rates and greater response at higher quantiles of interest rates, where inflation is presumably higher than desired for China and South Korea. While the response to inflation over the quantiles is significant for India, yet the Taylor principle is less likely to hold. For Taiwan, the results imply that another instrument is employed to deal with its official managed floating currency.     

Optimal monetary policy reaction function in a model with target zones and asymmetric preferences for South Africa

This paper estimates the optimal response of the SARB to deviations of inflation and output from their target values over the inflation targeting era. This is achieved using an empirical framework that allows the central bank's policy preferences to be zone-like and asymmetric. The first major finding is that the monetary authorities' response towards inflation is zone symmetric. That is, they react in a passive manner when inflation is within the target band whereas they become increasingly aggressive when it deviates from the target band. The monetary authorities also react with the same level of aggressiveness regardless of whether inflation overshoots or undershoots the inflation target band. The second major finding is that the monetary authorities' response to output fluctuations is asymmetric. That is, they react more aggressively to negative deviations of output from the potential so that they weigh business cycle recessions more than expansions.     

ZONE‐TARGETING MONETARY POLICY PREFERENCES AND FINANCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS: A FLEXIBLE NON‐LINEAR POLICY REACTION FUNCTION OF THE SARB MONETARY POLICY

We estimate a flexible model of the monetary policy reaction function of the South African Reserve Bank based on a representation of the policymaker's preferences that capture asymmetries and zone‐targeting behaviours. We augment the analysis to allow for responses to financial market conditions over and above inflation and output stabilisation to address the current debate on the importance of financial asset prices in monetary policy decision making. The empirical results show that the monetary authorities' response to inflation is zone symmetric. Secondly, the monetary authorities' response to output is asymmetric with increased reaction during business cycle downturns relative to upturns. Thirdly, the monetary authorities pay close attention to the financial conditions index by placing an equal weight on financial market booms and recessions.     

The Macroeconomics Effects of Government Spending Under Fiscal Foresight

Consumption and output responses to fiscal shocks are studied in a model with fiscal foresight. Fiscal foresight reduces both output multipliers and consumption. However, key features such as sticky wages, credit constrained households and elastic labour supply, are able to generate both sizeable output multipliers and positive consumption, in effect preserving key Keynesian effects. This model fits a developing economy like South Africa well since it is able to capture transparent communication of government as well as control for credit constrained consumption and sticky wages.     

An Analysis of the Inward Cross‐Border Mergers and Acquisitions in the U.K.: A Macroeconomic Perspective

The incidence of cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (CBM&As) has accelerated over the past two decades. Yet previous empirical work relating to CBM&As has been confined to firm‐specific factors. This is against the backdrop that researchers have not been able to develop a coherent theory explaining the increasing trends of CBM&As activity. Building on prior studies, this study attempts to extend the few existing studies by using a simple empirical nonlinear framework to analyse the number of CBM&As inflows between 1987 and 2008 into the U.K. from a macroeconomic perspective. The main findings are that the response of the inflow is asymmetric as there is more persistence during stock market booms versus recessions. There are asymmetries with respect to relative prices suggesting that merger inflow activity appears to be higher once the stock prices rise above a threshold level of 8 per cent. Other factors which have significant bearing on CBM&As inflows are the rate of inflation and growth in real GDP.     

Vicious and virtuous circles — The political economy of unemployment in interwar UK and USA

This paper develops a political economy model of multiple unemployment equilibria to provide a theory of an endogenous natural rate of unemployment for the UK and the US interwar period. The theory here sees the natural rate and the associated path of unemployment as a reaction to mainly demand shocks and the institutional structure of the economy. The channel through which these two forces feed on each other is a political economy process whereby voters with limited information on the natural rate react to shocks by demanding more or less social protection. The reduced form results confirm a pattern of unemployment behaviour in which unemployment moves between high and low equilibria in response to shocks.