Money,Asset Prices,and the Liquidity Premium

This paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the market value of the liquidity services that financial assets provide, known as the liquidity premium. The theory predicts that money supply and nominal interest rates have positive effects on the liquidity premium, but asset supply has a negative effect. The empirical analysis with U.S. data confirms the theoretical predictions. The theory also proposes that the liquidity properties of assets can cause negative nominal yields when the money holding cost is low and liquid assets are scarce. The suggestive empirical findings in Switzerland to support this theoretical result are presented.     

福鼎市桐江溪卤乙酸分布特征及潮汐影响分析

为了掌握福鼎市桐江溪卤乙酸(HAAs)的含量、时空分布规律及其来源,对水体中HAAs化合物进行取样调查。根据桐江溪水文情势及沿岸特点设置10个取样点,于2017年12月及2018年7月按照涨潮、退潮情况分别对水样进行采集,检测HAAs分布情况,同时将卤乙酸(HAAs)与水质特性、涨退潮进行了相关性分析。研究发现,HAAs是普遍存在于桐江溪中的污染物质。其中,一氯乙酸(MCAA)、二氯乙酸(DCAA)、三氯乙酸(TCAA)、一溴乙酸(MBAA)、二溴乙酸(DBAA)等5种卤乙酸(HAA_5)质量浓度为0.44～3.39μg/L;一氯乙酸(MCAA)、二氯乙酸(DCAA)、三氯乙酸(TCAA)、一溴乙酸(MBAA)、二溴乙酸(DBAA)、三溴乙酸(TBAA)、一溴一氯乙酸(BCAA)、一溴二氯乙酸(BDCAA)、二溴一氯乙酸(CBDAA)等9种卤乙酸(HAA_9)质量浓度为0.83～56.15μg/L。桐江溪中HAAs主要为DCAA,TCAA,TBAA 3种,其中DCAA为制药厂及医院排水导致,主要分布在下游;TCAA主要来源于河段上游的农业生产活动;TBAA为上游沸石矿尾矿库受雨水冲刷而流入的Br~-所生成,主要分布于河流中下段。相关性分析结果表明,温度与HAA_5,HAA_9质量浓度呈现正相关,pH值与HAA_5,HAA_9质量浓度呈现负相关;TCAA质量浓度于相同季节不同潮汐及不同季节相同潮汐时均呈现上游高于下游的现象,其他HAAs均不因涨潮、退潮的差异造成质量浓度分布的变化。掌握桐江溪HAAs的含量、时空分布规律及来源,探讨其与水质的相关性,对于净水工艺选择、水厂出水HAAs含量的溯源分析、水体环境风险评估以及研究水生生物体内HAAs的累积效应等有重要意义。     

Climbing the Job Ladder: New Evidence of Gender Inequity

An explanation for the gender wage gap is that women are less able or less willing to “climb the job ladder.” However, the empirical evidence on gender differences in job mobility has been mixed. Focusing on a subsample of younger, university‐educated workers from an Australian longitudinal survey, we find strong evidence that the dynamics of promotions and employer changes worsen women’s labor market position.     

PRICE DYNAMICS,FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND ANTICIPATED SHOCKS IN A TOURISM ECONOMY

Using a dynamic model of an open monetary economy, this paper examines the effects of tourism‐related anticipated shocks on goods prices and foreign exchange reserves. Foreign tourists consume mainly non‐traded goods in holiday destinations, converting them into exportable goods. This gives rise to a tourism terms‐of‐trade effect that affects the accumulation of foreign exchange. Announcements of anticipated events bring tourist visits forward, resulting in an initial under‐adjustment or an over‐adjustment in the prices of the non‐traded goods when the tourism terms‐of‐trade effect is positive or negative. This leads to an increase or a decrease in foreign reserves in the long run.     

MEASURING PRICE ELASTICITY OF SECTORIAL IMPORTS

Previous published studies have estimated the long‐run cointegrating relationship to infer the price elasticity of imports, but a stable long‐run cointegrating relationship might not be detected in the data, especially in the case of sectoral data. This paper develops a method to estimate the price elasticity of imports based on a vector autoregression model, which can be applied when a stable long‐run cointegration relationship does not exist. The methods developed in past studies and our method are applied to Korean sectoral imports data to illustrate the usefulness of our method.     

INFLATION TARGETING IN PRACTICE: FURTHER EVIDENCE

This paper empirically investigates the plausibility, which has been argued but not fully established, that the efficacy of the inflation-targeting strategy recently implemented by New Zealand, Canada, and the U.K. has been an artifact of a global disinflationary environment. A data decomposition procedure, which involves cointegration and canonical correlation analysis, is used to remove common trend and cyclical components from historical data that these three countries share with their nontargeting neighboring countries, namely, Australia, the U.S., and Germany, respectively. Simulations based on resulting country-specific data for inflation and other economic aggregates reveal scant evidence of regime-shift effects as exhibited in observed data. This contrast in findings highlights the extent to which cross-country synchronization in economic activity has on the performance of small open economies. (JEL C32, E52, E58)     

中国股市的崩盘系统性风险与投资者行为偏好

股价崩盘作为金融市场上普遍存在并且具有广泛影响力的极端现象,对股票的定价产生了至关重要的作用。本文主要研究我国股市中股票的崩盘系统性风险,研究发现:(1)股票的崩盘系统性风险与预期收益率显著正相关,并且对冲组合可以获得8.86%的年化收益;(2)投资者的博彩型股票偏好和吉祥数字偏好都会显著影响崩盘系统性风险与预期收益率之间的关系。本文的研究对于进行投资决策、风险管理以及理解投资者行为都具有参考意义。     

高息委托贷款与企业创新

本文分析了参与以高息委托贷款为代表的影子银行业务对企业创新活动和未来业绩的影响。通过结合管理层的短视理论,本文分析了企业从事高息委托贷款后企业创新活动变化以及盈利水平和构成的变化。结果表明,当年从事高息委托贷款降低了企业未来的专利产出水平和投入水平,并伴随未来营业利润资产收益率更低和营业外利润资产收益率更高的情形。进一步的分析表明,从事高息委托贷款与否与公司整体盈利能力没有显著差异,更多表现出盈利结构上的差异,说明从事高息委托贷款的根本动机是源于管理层的短视。