Saving–investment correlations, capital mobility and crowding out: some further results

This study attempts to reassess the evidence on the degree of capital mobility and crowding out by applying a varying coefficients model to data on 19 OECD countries over the 1971–1999 period. Our period-specific results strongly support the crowding-out effect as well as the low capital mobility argument for this group of countries as a whole. However, the strength of the crowding-out effect appears to weaken and the degree of capital mobility to increase in the 1990s as compared to the 1970s and 1980s. We also classify countries into five groups according to the relative size of the government sector. Our group-specific results indicate that the degree of capital mobility is generally lower and the crowding-out effect generally stronger, in country groups with smaller governments. The differences are especially evident when we compare the group with largest government size with all other groups, those differences between the latter being much more modest. However, significant differences in the country-specific results suggest that it is prudent to be cautious when we draw conclusions about crowding-out and capital mobility for specific countries from the period-wise or group-wise results. This is particularly important in drawing policy implications for specific countries.     

Exploring customer’s mobile banking experiences and expectations among generations X,Y and Z

Customer’s adoption of mobile banking portrays tremendous growth in developing countries. However, it seems that there is a lack of studies about customer’s experiences and expectations on mobile banking services, and more research is needed considering generational differences between mobile banking customers in Iran. The purpose of this study is to explore the customer’s mobile banking experiences and expectations among generations X, Y, and Z in a developing country context, Iran. Twenty-seven in-depth interviews were conducted from active users of mobile banking services with a generational split in Iran. A qualitative content analysis was employed to understand customer’s mobile banking experiences and expectations. This study identified specific features of different generations regarding their experiences and expectations of mobile banking services. Each generation displayed distinct characteristics of mobile banking. Generation X customers perceive mobile banking as complicated; generation Y customers prefer to use mobile banking for quick payments, while generation Z customers want to have more customized services and ranked mobile banking as a spontaneous solution. Every generation expects different features to focus on: generation X expects to have more user-friendly functions; generation Y prefers to have an online transaction tracker while generation Z appeals to have enhanced the user interface. This study offers a detailed strategic starting point for management to tailor dynamic customer expectations among different generations.     

Rhetoric versus Reality: the Privatisation of Telekom Malaysia

Telekonl Malaysia (TM) was floated as a private enterprise in 1990 as part of the country's overall privatisation programme. The programme included the usual privatisation goals of competition, reduced state involvement, growth and efficiency, but also a redistributional goal to enhance the Bumiputra community. This paper discusses whether the Malaysian government has been able to reconcile all its stated objectives, and suggests that the Bumiputra redistributional goal has been favoured at the expense of the other objectives. It is concluded that the privatisation of TM was cosmetic and that the government has used TM to implement its strategy, mainly through internal control of its corporate affairs, which runs contrary to the most widely accepted views of privatisation.     

Statistical Approaches to Forecasting Domestic Energy Consumption and Assessing Determinants: The Case of Nordic Countries

The residential sector accounts for large share of total annual energy use in the Nordic countries due to the extremely cold climates and high household heating demand. Most domestic energy consumption in the Nordic countries is for space heating and providing hot water. The purpose of our study was to forecast the annual energy consumption of the Nordic residential sectors by 2020 as a function of socio-economic and environmental factors, and to offer a framework for the predictors in each country.

Our research models the domestic energy use in Nordic countries based on social, economic and environmental factors. Applying the multiple linear regression (MLR), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and the artificial neural network (ANN) analysis methodologies, three models have been generated for each country in the Nordic region. Using these models, we forecasted the Nordic countries domestic energy use by 2020 and assessed the causal links between energy consumption and the investigated predictors. The results showed that the ANN models have a superior capability of forecasting the domestic energy use and specifying the importance of predictors compared to the regression models. The models revealed that changes in population, unemployment rate, work force, urban population, and the amount of CO₂ emissions from the residential sectors can cause significant variations in Nordic domestic sector energy use.     

The impact of the magnitude of service failure and complaint handling on satisfaction and brand credibility in the banking industry

The present research aims to investigate the effects of service failure and complaint handling on customer satisfaction with complaint handling which consequently impacts overall satisfaction and brand credibility. To examine the objectives of the present research, the authors deployed a sample of 384 respondents in Persian banks within Iran. Structural equation modeling has been used to analyze the data. The findings suggest that the magnitude of service failure negatively effects customer satisfaction with complaint handling. Complaint handling positively affects customer satisfaction with complaint handling. In addition, the results suggest that customer satisfaction with complaint handling positively influences brand credibility and overall satisfaction. Finally, overall satisfaction positively impacts brand credibility. The results revealed that if the complaint handling occurs instantly at the right time, it would have been a positive influence on customer satisfaction and ultimately develop brand credibility. Therefore, banks can adopt customer relationship management systems and processes which enable quick responses to customer complaints. Bank managers could find the results of the present study useful and beneficial in developing complaint handling efforts and expanding appropriate service recovery and brand credibility strategies.     

Spatial clustering of rural poverty and food insecurity in Sri Lanka

We mapped poverty, with reference to a nutrition-based poverty line, to analyse its spatial clustering in Sri Lanka. We used the Divisional Secretariat poverty map, derived by combining the principal component analysis and the synthetic small area estimation technique, as the data source. Two statistically significant clusters appear. One cluster indicates that low poverty rural areas cluster around a few low poverty urban areas, where low agricultural employment and better access to roads are key characteristics. The other indicates a cluster of high poverty rural areas, where agriculture is the dominant economic activity, and where spatial clustering is associated with factors influencing agricultural production. Agricultural smallholdings are positively associated with spatial clustering of poor rural areas. In areas where water availability is low, better access to irrigation significantly reduces poverty. Finally, we discuss the use of poverty mapping for effective policy formulation and interventions for alleviating poverty and food insecurity.     

CURRENCY VERSUS BANKING IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1931

During the 1920s, Germany was the world's largest capital importer, financing reparations through U.S. credits. We examine financial channels in crisis transmission between these two countries around the German financial crisis of 1931. We specify a structural dynamic factor model to identify financial and monetary factors separately for each of the two economies. We find substantial crisis transmission from Germany to the United States via the financial channel, while monetary or financial crisis transmission from the United States to Germany was weak. We also find major real effects of the 1931 crisis on both economies, again transmitted via the financial channel.     

Tracking down the business cycle: A dynamic factor model for Germany 1820–1913

We use a Bayesian dynamic factor model in order to calculate an economic activity index for Germany prior to World War I. The procedure allows us to incorporate information from a vast number of time series, which are underutilized by historical national accounts. Therefore, our indicator provides an alternative measure for economic activity, based on a broader database. To investigate industrialization, we compare our aggregate measure of economic activity with sectoral activity indices. We find that the industrial transition was completed earlier than agricultural output and employment shares suggest, since the indicator for agriculture had already decoupled from the aggregate business cycle measure during the 1860s. Moreover, we find that stock prices are strongly correlated with our indicator, and lead it by 1–2 years.     

On the Low‐Frequency Relationship Between Public Deficits and Inflation

We estimate the low‐frequency relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation and pay special attention to its potential time variation by estimating a time‐varying vector autoregression model for US data from 1900 to 2011. We find the strongest relationship neither in times of crisis nor in times of high public deficits, but from the mid 1960s up to 1980. Employing a structural decomposition of the low‐frequency relationship and further narrative evidence, we interpret our results such that the low‐frequency relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation is strongly related to the conduct of monetary policy and its interaction with fiscal policy after World War II.Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Portfolio management of the free banks of Illinois: An examination of historical allegations

We are grateful to Andrew Economopoulos and to Charles Kahn for comments; to an anonymous referee for several helpful suggestions; and to the Research Board of the University of Illinois for providing support.