Learning to trust strangers: an evolutionary perspective

What if living in a relatively trustworthy society was sufficient to blindly trust strangers? In this paper we interpret generalized trust as a learning process and analyse the trust game paradox in light of the replicator dynamics. Given that trust inevitably implies doubts about others, we assume incomplete information and study the dynamics of trust in buyer-supplier purchase transactions. Considering a world made of ??good?? and ??bad?? suppliers, we show that the trust game admits a unique evolutionarily stable strategy: buyers may trust strangers if it is not too risky to do so. Examining the situation where some players may play either as trustor or as trustee we show that this result is robust.     

Improving Volatility Forecasts Using Market‐Elicited Ambiguity Aversion Information

Distinguishing between risk and uncertainty, this paper proposes a volatility forecasting framework that incorporates asymmetric ambiguity shocks in the (exponential) generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity‐in‐mean conditional volatility process. Spanning 25 years of daily data and considering the differential role of investors' ambiguity attitudes in the gain and loss domains, our models capture a rich set of information and provide more accurate volatility forecasts both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample when compared to ambiguity‐free or risk‐based counterparts. Ambiguity‐based volatility‐timing trading strategies confirm the economic significance of our proposed framework and indicate that an annualized excess return of 3.2% over the benchmark could be earned from 1995 to 2014.     

‘Shopping for Voice’: Do Pre‐Existing Non‐Union Representation Plans Matter When Employees Unionize?

The transition to unionization in three workplaces with pre‐existing non‐union employee representation plans (NERPs) is contrasted to three matched sites, which had only individual representation. Pre‐existing collective voice arrangements had substantial effects on the process and outcomes of unionization. While the individual representation sites presented a conventional process of mobilization and attachment to the union, the NERP sites revealed a more equivocal outcome. The union was used in an instrumental manner to increase NERP power and to achieve worker demands already articulated by the NERP. NERP leaders became union leaders. There remained significant attachment to the NERP and a reluctance to fully embrace unionization.     

Skill shortages and labor market outcomes in Central Europe

The new Central European members of the EU have been characterized by low employment rates, especially among unskilled workers, despite the GDP recoveries and large private sector shares in output and employment. Evidence points at skill shortages in Central Europe as a key impediment to faster labor reallocation and convergence to the EU-15 employment structures. In this paper, we develop a simple model of labor reallocation with transaction costs and show how skill shortages can inhibit firm creation and increase income inequality. We use the model to examine the impact of training subsidies and their financing on skill acquisition and start-ups of new private firms, and show that the positive effect of subsidies would be mostly offset by high wage taxes. Shifting financing from wage to consumption taxes would improve incentives for workers’ training and firm start-ups, while relying more on income taxes could reduce the income gap between workers and entrepreneurs.     

Epidemiology of unintentional drowning in a metropolis of the French Mediterranean coast: a retrospective analysis (2000–2011)

Drowning affects more than 500,000 people worldwide and is responsible for at least 350,000 deaths each year. In France, 1235 drowning resulting in 496 deaths were recorded in the summer 2012. This retrospective study has investigated the epidemiology of drowning in the city of Marseille (South of France) between 2000 and 2011. We identified 449 cases of unintentional drowning. The highest incidence was found among males with a median age of 36 years. The incidence was 5.3 victims per 10,000 inhabitants with a mortality rate of 1.2 per 10,000. These accidents occurred mainly at sea (89%) and during the summer season. A majority of drowning victims (69%) were admitted in a hospital. This is the only study in France to analyse data on drowning throughout the year and over a long period. Drowning is a serious condition burdened by 22% of victims who die.     

Exploitation versus exploration in multinational firms: Implications for the future of international business

Given the economic weight of multinational corporations and their privileged access to resources, many different scenarios can be built about the future of international business and about the future impact of international business on economic, technological, and social development. In this paper, we argue that multinationals do not form a uniform organisational population, and we provide empirical evidence of the existence of traditional, rigid entities seeking benefits from low-risk exploitative strategies on one hand, and of flexible multinationals seeking higher performance levels by balancing the trade-offs between exploration and exploitation on the other hand. As these two sub-populations compete with one another for resources, we use a population ecology perspective to study likely ecological scenarios for the future. Our conclusion is that traditional multinationals tend to prevail over flexible multinationals, and the conditions required for a future society to allow a genuine growth of flexible multinationals are unlikely. This implies that multinationals remain primarily exploitative, and that as such, they will only be associated with marginal economic, technological, and social developments in the future. Other organisational forms, such as entrepreneurial small business and communities of practices are shown to be much more likely vehicles through which society can progress and innovate.     

A POST‐KEYNESIAN STOCK‐FLOW CONSISTENT MODEL FOR DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCK ON BANKING BEHAVIOUR

We try to make Keynes' approach compatible with an endogenous theory of the money supply. For that purpose, the principle of liquidity preference is generalized within a competitive banking framework. Private banks can impose a monetary rationing independently of the central bank. Then, we analyse the consequences of a monetary policy shock on the financial behaviour of banks. We clarify the dynamic process between the monetary policy and net investment within a Minskyan approach. First, we build a Post‐Keynesian stock‐flow consistent model with a private‐bank sector introducing more realistic features. Second, we perform some simulations.     

STOCK‐FLOW INTERACTIONS,DISEQUILIBRIUM MACROECONOMICS AND THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC POLICY

This paper presents the ‘KMGT’ (Keynes–Metzler–Goodwin–Tobin) portfolio model and studies its stability properties. The approach to macrodynamic modelling taken here extends the KMG model of Chiarella and Flaschel (2000) , focusing in particular on the incorporation of financial markets and policy issues. The original KMG model considered three asset markets (equities, bonds and money) but depicted them in a rudimentary way so that they had little influence on the real side of the model. The only financial market influencing the real side of the economy was the money market (via an LM curve theory of interest). Here Tobin's portfolio choice theory models the demand for each asset in such a way that the total amount of assets that households want to hold equals their net wealth, which is a stock constraint attached to portfolio choice. There is also a flow constraint, that the net amount of assets accumulated (liabilities issued) by one sector must equal its net savings (expenditures). The Tobinian macroeconomic portfolio approach characterizes the potential for financial market instability, focusing on the interconnectedness of all three markets. The paper goes on to study the potential for labour market and fiscal policies to stabilize unstable macroeconomies.     

Co-operation and Unilateral Commitment in the Presence of Global Environmental Problems

This paper focuses on the link between group co-operation and unilateral commitment of some countries in the presence of global environmental problems. We show that in case of a failure of negotiation, some countries can decide to commit unilaterally and reduce their emissions. We call this behaviour precautionary commitment. Absence of international agreement does not mean global defection from the environmental issue.We also show that the emergence of a non-co-ordinatedglobal co-operation can result from a strategic actionfrom the members of the coalition. The insiders of the coalition create an incentive for the non-members to reduce without co-ordinating their emissions.