Omnichannel marketing: Are cross-channel effects symmetric?

The rapid growth in omnichannel (e.g., Web, call center, sales agent, store) shopping and the need to effectively allocate resources across channels are prompting managers and researchers to better understand cross-channel effects, that is, the effects of marketing efforts in one distribution channel on shopping outcomes in other channels. We develop a broad set of hypotheses about cross-channel effects based on channel richness and influence roles (informative, persuasive). To test the hypotheses, we model the effects (own and cross) of channel marketing efforts on shopping outcomes in different channels through a simultaneous equation system. We estimate these models using data from the auto insurance industry that comprises the exclusive agent, the independent agent, the Web, and the call center channels. Our results offer novel insights. They show that cross-channel effects and elasticities are significant and asymmetric. While the effect of marketing efforts in a channel on shopping outcomes in a dissimilar (with a different primary influence role) channel is positive (e.g., exclusive agent, the Web, and the call center channels are complementary), the magnitudes of the cross-channel effects are asymmetric. Similarly, while the effect of marketing efforts in a channel on shopping outcomes in a similar (with the same primary influence role) channel is negative (e.g., independent agent and exclusive agent channels are substitutional), they are also asymmetric. Exclusive agent efforts have a greater negative effect on the outcomes of independent agent efforts than vice versa. Based on the results, we develop a channel influence vs. influenceability analysis tool for managers to better plan their channel efforts. We also illustrate a resource allocation model that shows substantial incremental profits from the reallocation of marketing efforts based on our model with cross-channel effects relative to a model without cross-channel effects.     

Capacity Constraints and Hedge Fund Strategy Returns

Hedge funds have generated significant absolute returns (alpha) in the decade between 1995 and 2004. However, the level of alpha has declined substantially over this period. We investigate whether capacity constraints at the level of hedge fund strategies have been responsible for this decline. For four out of eight hedge fund strategies, capital inflows have statistically preceded negative movements in alpha, consistent with this hypothesis. We also find evidence that hedge fund fees have increased over the same period. Our results provide support for the Berk and Green (2004) rational model of active portfolio management.     

Trading Volume and Cross-Autocorrelations in Stock Returns

This paper finds that trading volume is a significant determinant of the lead-lag patterns observed in stock returns. Daily and weekly returns on high volume portfolios lead returns on low volume portfolios, controlling for firm size. Nonsynchronous trading or low volume portfolio autocorrelations cannot explain these findings. These patterns arise because returns on low volume portfolios respond more slowly to information in market returns. The speed of adjustment of individual stocks confirms these findings. Overall, the results indicate that differential speed of adjustment to information is a significant source of the cross-autocorrelation patterns in short-horizon stock returns.     

Have capital market anomalies attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?

We examine whether the recent regime of increased liquidity and trading activity is associated with attenuation of prominent equity return anomalies due to increased arbitrage. We find that the majority of the anomalies have attenuated and the average returns from a portfolio strategy based on prominent anomalies have approximately halved after decimalization. We provide evidence that hedge fund assets under management, short interest and aggregate share turnover have led to the decline in anomaly-based trading strategy profits in recent years. Overall, our work indicates that policies to stimulate liquidity and ameliorate trading costs improve capital market efficiency.     

Bilateral Merger a Note on Salant-Switzer-Reynolds Model

The SSR (1983, QJE) paper shows that in an oligopoly industry of kfirms (k > 2) with linear demand and identical (constant) average cost of production, a bilateral merger is never profitable when all firms choose their quantities simultaneously. In this paper we re-examine the issue when some firms have first-mover advantage. We find that in a leader-follower structure a bilateral merger is always profitable when a leader and a follower merge together and the merged firm behaves like a leader. But, a bilateral merger between leaders or between followers may not be privately profitable.

     

True Spreads and Equilibrium Prices

Stocks and other financial assets are traded at prices that lie on a fixed grid determined by the minimum tick size. Observed prices and quoted spreads do not correspond to the equilibrium prices and true spreads that would exist in a market with no minimum tick size. Using Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods, this paper estimates the equilibrium prices and true spreads. For large stocks, most of the quoted spread is attributable to the rounding of prices and the adverse selection component is small. The true spread and the adverse selection component are greater for mid-sized stocks.     

Market Liquidity and Trading Activity

Previous studies of liquidity span short time periods and focus on the individual security. In contrast, we study aggregate market spreads, depths, and trading activity for U.S. equities over an extended time sample. Daily changes in market averages of liquidity and trading activity are highly volatile and negatively serially dependent. Liquidity plummets significantly in down markets. Recent market volatility induces a decrease in trading activity and spreads. There are strong day-of-the-week effects; Fridays accompany a significant decrease in trading activity and liquidity, while Tuesdays display the opposite pattern. Long- and short-term interest rates influence liquidity. Depth and trading activity increase just prior to major macroeconomic announcements.     

On the (non-)lattice structure of the equilibrium set in games with strategic substitutes

This paper studies models where the optimal response functions under consideration are not increasing in endogenous variables, and weakly increasing in exogenous parameters. Such models include games with strategic substitutes, and include cases where additionally, some variables may be strategic complements. The main result here is that the equilibrium set in such models is a non-empty, complete lattice, if, and only if, there is a unique equilibrium. Indeed, for a given parameter value, a pair of distinct equilibria are never comparable. Therefore, with multiple equilibria, some of the established techniques for exhibiting increasing equilibria or computing equilibria that use the largest or smallest equilibrium, or that use the lattice structure of the equilibrium set do not apply to such models. Moreover, there are no ranked equilibria in such models. Additionally, the analysis here implies a new proof and a slight generalization of some existing results. It is shown that when a parameter increases, no new equilibrium is smaller than any old equilibrium. (In particular, in n-player games of strategic substitutes with real-valued action spaces, symmetric equilibria increase with the parameter.)