Conditional Dependence in Precious Metal Prices

This study investigates the time-series properties of gold and silver spot prices. Both precious metal price series are found to exhibit time dependence and pronounced generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) effects. Splitting the data into similar economic subperiods provides superior explanation of these effects because of the observed long-run nonconstancy of the unconditional variance. Further, the power exponential distribution, as opposed to the Student-t, is found to portray accurately the thick-tailed conditional variance that remains after the GARCH effects are removed. These findings imply that constant variance pricing models are inappropriate for securities that are based on precious metal prices.     

A bi-objective model for planning and managing rail-truck intermodal transportation of hazardous materials

We propose a bi-objective optimization framework for routing rail-truck intermodal shipments with hazardous materials, when shippers and receivers have access to alternate intermodal terminals. A tabu-search based solution methodology is developed, which together with the optimization framework is applied to realistic size problem instances to gain managerial insights. Our analysis indicates that drayage accounts for a significant portion of transport risk and that it can be reduced by scheduling direct and faster trains; and, that the mix of intermodal trains depends on the interest of the decision-makers, where the resulting traffic can facilitate planning emergency response systems.     

Predictability of Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Risk Premia

This article investigates the source of predictability of emerging market (EM) local currency bond risk premia by using a dynamic factor approach based on a large panel of economic and financial time series. We find strong predictable variation in EM local currency excess bond returns that is associated with macroeconomic activity. We provide evidence that the main predictor variables are the factors based on real economic activity that are highly correlated with measures of industrial and manufacturing production; however, factors based on global financial factors also contain information about the future local currency bond returns. The predictive power of the extracted factors is both statistically significant and economically important. Our research has important implications for policymakers and pension fund managers.     

STOCK PRICE PROCESSES WITH DISCONTINUOUS TIME PATHS: AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION

This paper discusses the statistical properties of a mixed stochastic process and conducts a thorough empirical test of the process for an extensive group of common stocks and portfolios of stocks. It is found that a homogeneous diffusion process does not adequately describe stock price fluctuations and that there are significant discontinuities in the sample paths of stock prices. This result holds for both individual stocks and portfolios of various sizes. The statistical fit of a particular mixed diffusion-jump process to sample data is also demonstrated.     

Absolute and Conditional Convergence in Both Zones of Cyprus: Statistical Convergence and Insitutional Divergence

This paper implements a time series econometric model to determine the timing of full convergence of incomes and output per capita and total factor productivity in the North and South of Cyprus, regardless of whether there is a political settlement or not. A significant dimension of the paper is its emphasis on institutional convergence, going beyond econometric or statistical convergence. Our results reveal that North Cyprus needs 17 years to catch up to full per capita income convergence, 16 years for per capita output convergence and 17 years for full total factor productivity (technological) convergence. The time‐series findings demonstrate that statistical convergence is occurring quite rapidly as the North is catching up to the average income and productivity levels of the South, which may confirm evidence of unconditional (beta) or absolute convergence, but there are significant differences between North and South in savings, tastes, population growth and technology. Most significantly, there are institutional differences highlighted in the study with a Two‐sector model of gate‐keeping and rent‐seeking which validates the premises of conditional convergence. Put differently, there are strong forces of divergence hidden behind our statistical findings.     

Separation and Normalization in Multi-Attribute Decision Models for Investment Evaluation

The separation of the evaluation attributes into two distinct subsets, objective and subjective measures, is discussed. The use of normalization over the alternatives for each subjective attribute is shown to lead to erroneous choices in certain situations.     

The statistical evolution of prices on the Istanbul stock exchange

This study documents the statistical properties of the stock returns on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) for the January 1988 to December 1999 period and tries to assess the evolution of the underlying stochastic structure over this time period. It also investigates empirically the relative efficiency of the ISE to test whether the rapid development of this market over the last decade caused it to become a relatively more efficient market. This is accomplished through a number of parametric and non-parametric tests of the random walk hypothesis using daily, weekly and monthly observations of the value-weighted ISE-100 index series. The emphasis is more on the evolution of the price process than on static tests of a random walk model as such. The findings indicate that the price mechanism in the ISE has evolved into a more informationally efficient process in little more than a decade of existence.