Analysts’ Momentum Recommendations

We document that the likelihood of analyst recommendations following past stock returns decreased abruptly in 2003, coinciding with the Global Settlement and other regulatory changes designed to restrain analysts’ conflicts of interest. We also document that the likelihood of recommendations following past stock returns is abnormally high for recommendations issued after negative stock returns (but not for those issued after positive stock returns), among inexperienced and inaccurate analysts, among large brokerage houses, and for companies with high share turnover. Moreover, the recommendations that are more likely to follow past stock returns are accompanied by earnings forecast revisions that are larger in magnitude and less accurate ex post. Overall, our findings suggest that analysts with conflicts of interest and limited ability are more likely to base their recommendations on past stock returns. Finally, we document that the recommendations that are more likely to follow past stock returns (especially those that were issued before 2003 and those that are issued after negative stock returns) contribute to existing price momentum by generating incrementally stronger short‐term and long‐term stock returns.     

Money demand, the Cagan model, testing rational expectations vs adaptive expectations: The case of Turkey

This paper estimates the Cagan type demand for money function for Turkish economy during the period 1986:1–1995:3 and tests whether Cagan's specification fits the Turkish data using an econometric technique assuming that forecasting errors are stationary. This paper also tests the hypothesis that monetary policy was implemented in aiming to maximize the inflation tax revenue. Finally, the Cagan model is estimated with the additional assumption of rational expectations for Turkey for the considered period. First version received: March 1998/final version received: October 1998     

The time-varying effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation for Turkey

We investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation from January 1982 through March 2016 for Turkey by using the Stochastic Volatility in Mean model with time-varying parameters. Our empirical evidence from consumer price index (CPI) inflation suggests that the observed positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is not robust. This positive relationship diminishes after 2002. This finding is valid for all five subcomponents of CPI inflation; however, for Health Services, Transportation Services, and Recreational and Cultural Services, an inflation-positive association is reported after 2010.     

The role of climate: implications for service employee engagement and customer service performance

This research attempts to challenge the resource–engagement and engagement–performance linkage of the job demands–resources model by testing these links under the moderating role of two climates: performance-focused and service failure recovery. Two studies test a model on the boundary conditions of the linkages across four service industries. The results suggest that whether a resource (i.e., self-efficacy and job autonomy) positively or negatively affects engagement depends on whether (1) a climate is appraised as a challenge or hindrance demand and (2) a climate is deemed a complementary or compensatory resource. Using multi-respondent data from customer service employees and their supervisors in the health care industry, Study 1 conceptualizes climate as organizational climate and finds that performance-focused climate strengthens (weakens) the positive effect of self-efficacy (job autonomy) on engagement while service failure recovery climate weakens the positive impact of self-efficacy on engagement. Study 2 generalizes the findings from Study 1 and provides broad support by testing the model using psychological climate in the financial services, tourism and hospitality, and retailing industries. This study closes with a configuration approach to climate research by discussing when multiple climates can co-exist under different types of resources.     

Intercompany mobbing: the effects of company growth

Exploring the concept of mobbing, we have conducted a study of small and middle sized enterprises (commonly referred to as SMSE). In this study we observed corporate policies of repression and intimidation while taking into consideration the aim of these policies and their possible consequences. The ultimate purpose of this work is to shed light onto forthcoming academic studies of the same topic. Our focus has been the effects of the various presses, forms of harassment and market entry prevention carried out by companies that dominate the market against those companies entering the market and those already competing in the market. To determine these effects on 150 companies that conduct business in Turkey, we created a survey consisting of 15 categories. The results have been depicted with charts and graphs. The conclusion of the investigation has found that many of the attitudes which comprise of mobbing acts can be seen in the mutual behavior of the companies that work in the Turkish labor market. Although there are a number of reasons for the prevalence of the mobbing culture in Turkish business, it’s our belief that the Turkish labor market codes of conduct and regulations influence the perpetuation of ruthless behaviors between different companies.     

The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey

This article assesses the effect of output growth volatility on output growth within a stochastic-volatility-in-mean model with a time-varying framework for an open small economy: Turkey. Until now, the empirical evidence on industrial production mainly reveals that this relationship is negative. However, in further examining different sectors and sub-sectors of industrial production, we find the sign of the relationship changes depending on the sector. Moreover, there is limited evidence that the sign of the relationship changes over time. Thus, the evidence reveals that the nature of the output growth volatility–output growth relationship is not uniform across sectors.     

An extension to the classical mean–variance portfolio optimization model

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to find a portfolio that maximizes the risk-adjusted returns subject to constraints frequently faced during portfolio management by extending the classical Markowitz mean–variance portfolio optimization model. We propose a new two-step heuristic approach, GRASP & SOLVER, that evaluates the desirability of an asset by combining several properties about it into a single parameter. Using a real-life data set, we conduct a simulation study to compare our solution to a benchmark (S&P 500 index). We find that our method generates solutions satisfying nearly all of the constraints within reasonable computational time (under an hour), at the expense of a 13% reduction in the annual return of the portfolio, highlighting the effect of introducing these practice-based constraints.     

Oil prices,earnings, and stock returns

Review of Accounting Studies - Research has failed to document a consistent association between oil prices and stock prices. We propose and examine whether that failure is due to the need to link...