The development of delinquency during adolescence: a comparison of missing data techniques revisited

Quality & Quantity - Conclusions about the individual development of delinquent behaviours during the life-course are often made by repeatedly interviewing the same respondents (i.e. panel...     

The development of delinquency during adolescence: a comparison of missing data techniques

Conclusions on the development of delinquent behaviour during the life-course can only be made with longitudinal data, which is regularly gained by repeated interviews of the same respondents. Missing data are a problem for the analysis of delinquent behaviour during the life-course shown with data from an adolescents’ four-wave panel. In this article two alternative techniques to cope with missing data are used: full information maximum likelihood estimation and multiple imputation. Both methods allow one to consider all available data (including adolescents with missing information on some variables) in order to estimate the development of delinquency. We demonstrate that self-reported delinquency is systematically underestimated with listwise deletion (LD) of missing data. Further, LD results in false conclusions on gender and school specific differences of the age–crime relationship. In the final discussion some hints are given for further methods to deal with bias in panel data affected by the missing process.     

Application of early risk detection concepts and methods to environmental health. A German feasibility study

Early risk detection is essential for being able to address the most important environmental health risk‐topics in a persistent and prospective manner. In support of the action programme “Environment and Health” (APUG) of the German Federal Ministry of Health and Social Security (BMGS) and the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety (BMU) which recommended that a detection and evaluation system for the timely recognition of emerging risk problems be developed, a qualitative feasibility study was commissioned. The results of this study are presented here and support the development of an early risk detection system based on the insights gained from the investigation of case studies and the differentiation and presentation of a risk typology, methods, tools, and suggested organizational processes.

The study has shown that early risk detection includes the identification, characterization, evaluation and dissemination of information on possible risks as well as the circumstances of appearance and distribution. The goal is the recognition of possible risks in order for risk management to be able to introduce swift and appropriate measures. Consequently, it can also serve as an instrument towards further development of a balanced and structured implementation of the precautionary principle in the environmental health policy.     

New Product Success: Is It Really Controllable by Managers in Highly Turbulent Environments?

This research proposes and tests a model of direct and indirect effects linking four antecedents to new product success: (1) a proactive strategic orientation along with enabling (2) organic organizational structures should lead to more (3) innovativeness and (4) market intelligence. Innovativeness and market intelligence should in turn lead to greater new product success. The relationships among the four antecedents are not hypothesized to be moderated by environmental turbulence because their domain is intraorganizational. However, the relationships from intraorganizational constructs to new product success are hypothesized to be moderated by environmental turbulence because success depends in part on the environment in which the new product must compete. The model was tested using a sample composed of 202 small business units of manufacturers on the Fortune 500. The sample was heavily involved in new product development: Their average annual research and development budget was $360.4 million, and approximately 8.2% of sales came from products introduced in the last five years. A two-group structural equation model analysis supports the moderation model overall and reveals the pattern of direct, indirect, and total effects. The results show that innovativeness (but not market intelligence) directly predicts new product success when turbulence is high, whereas market intelligence (but not innovativeness) directly engenders new product success in low turbulence. Environmental turbulence also affects the total indirect impact of strategy proactiveness and organizational organicity on new product success. These indirect effects operate through innovativeness and market intelligence as complete mediators.     

Corporate foresight in Europe: from trend based logics to open foresight

The paper analyses the role of corporate foresight (CF) as a future intelligence gathering process, which has come into widespread use in a business context where it is confronted with specific contextual, processual and methodological challenges. The results of a 2005/2006 survey on CF by the University of St Gallen in co-operation with Z_punkt are used as a starting point to provide insights into the goals, methods and use of CF in large corporations. Taking into account the challenges facing CF and the factors considered critical for its success, the paper outlines a historical contextualisation of CF practices from the 1980s onward, identifying the underlying assumptions - the 'dominant logic' - and opting for a new model of CF as 'open foresight'.     

The role of competitive alternatives in the postchoice satisfaction formation process

A general model of satisfaction formation is proposed that extends the seminal disconfirmation of expectations model by explicitly incorporating the processing of both chosen and nonchosen alternatives. Using presidential election data, the results show that satisfaction with the nonchoice does remain salient in the determination of overall postchoice satisfaction. Disconfirmation related to either the chosen or the nonchosen alternative influences satisfaction with both the chosen and the nonchosen alternative. Overall, the model suggests that the nonchoice alternative may continue to be relevant in the satisfaction formation process. She received her Ph.D. from McGill University. Her work has appeared in theJournal of Marketing Research, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, International Journal of Research in Marketing, Decision Sciences, Journal of Macromarketing, and numerous other journals and conference proceedings. She is also coauthor of three books. She holds a Ph.D. in marketing from Michigan State University. Her work has appeared in theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science; Journal of Business Research; International Journal of Research in Marketing; Journal of Services Marketing; Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction and Complaining Behavior; and other journals and conference proceedings. Dr. Halstead was formerly an account executive with Needham Harper Worldwide and Director of Marketing and Media Services at Maxwell Advertising. Robert D. Mackoy received his Ph.D. from Michigan State University and is an assistant professor of marketing at Butler University. His research has appeared in theJournal of Retailing; Journal of Macromarketing; Journal of Services Marketing; Journal of Social Psychology; Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction and Complaining Behavior; and the proceedings of the American Marketing Association, Association for Consumer Research, and Marketing and Public Policy conferences.     

Systemtheorie,Shareholder Value-Konzept und Stakeholder-Konzept als theoretisch-konzeptionelle Bezugsrahmen der Balanced Scorecard

Zusammenfassung  Die theoretisch-konzeptionelle Würdigung der Balanced Scorecard steht trotz ihres Siegeszuges in der Praxis noch immer in den Anf?ngen. Der vorliegende Beitrag weist die Systemtheorie, das Shareholder Value-Konzept und das Stakeholder-Konzept als theoretisch-konzeptionelle Bezugsrahmen der Balanced Scorecard aus. Damit werden zugleich Modifikationsm?glichkeiten der Balanced Scorecard angedeutet, die sich aus einer noch konsequenteren Anlehnung an einen der drei Ans?tze ergeben k?nnten. Prof. Dr. Jan K?rnert ist Inhaber des Stiftungslehrstuhls für Allgemeine Betriebswirtschaftslehre, insb. Internationales Finanzmanagement/Kapitalm?rkte Dr. Cornelia Wolf ist Gesch?ftsführerin des Studentenwerkes Greifswald